QVectorman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Cpick79 I must have read someone else's post with the double quote thing because what you posted is right but much different. That sounds exciting. 6z gfs back to reality with the first three systems. There's no reason to expect a different outcome regardless of what the srefs say etc. Ie expect that none of these systems can develop in time to do much unless we see that change and stick inside of 60-72. 10 day euro is a yawn too. We are chewing up lots of winter clock without much to show for it. Beyond 10 or so days does it get more interesting with storms? Sure does. Only ten more days. I think we have to lay down at least two thirds our snow by mid Feb then the middle of the month goes normal or slightly above normal in the temp dept. of course normal temps aren't too hard to get snow in either so I guess it doesn't really matter. I think the main storm track shifting further west by mid month will be more of the dominate factor. As for March like I said it depends on what the PDO does in Feb. looking at the current configuration with the Aleutian low gaining strength it would play into the typical atm pattern of a +PDO, but does that translate into +PDO SSTA is the question. Which like I said seems to be a weird quark in my data in correlation to snowfall for the NE/MA regions for neutral ENSO years. I think qv in a different quote had cold coming back late February early march. I'll see if I could find it..... I said cooler...not colder haha. It's all relative to what the temps in place will be. I mean cooler could be 35 down to 25 or it could be 50 down to 40. Although the latter I don't see happening, temps like I said look to be just floating around climo for the second half of the month maybe a tad on the + side but not too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Thanks QV for clarifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not sure why folks aren't more excited for Sunday. ESP with the look on the Euro You do have to consider QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 You do have to consider QPFOh yeah, you def factor into forecast. Biting the euro verified it would be more than Jerry's dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sunday easily may be nothing much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Look at even the 36 or so hour forecasts at 500mb of most of the models. Part of the problem in this pattern seems to be impulses that come out of north central Canada. Models having a hard time with those...the 2/1 "system" included. Models had a strong vortmax just a day ago...now just meh and getting weaker every run. Maybe opens the doors to the other two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Not sure why folks aren't more excited for Sunday. ESP with the look on the Euro Be wary of the the progressive flow and kicker. Just my $0.02. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 After the numerous failures this year, I'll wait until Saturday to see if its still there before it has my attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Sunday easily may be nothing much at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Well if the GFS is right..it may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Well if the GFS is right..it may be.We will go with Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Its not a lock by any means, The 3rd and 6th could amount to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 We will go with Will He didn't go with anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 He didn't go with anything.He had 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 He had 1-3 Read his post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If I had to make a guess(because at this point it's mostly guessing), the 6th has more potential than the 3rd. The 6th has been showing up on the models for a while now, while the third has been bouncing around and never really became a defined feature. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Read his post.I did and its what he has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah model runs last night were def less hostile in the LR...I do like the much stormier look in the long range, even if it means we risk tainting. I like pure snowfall as much as anyone, but the 1-3" events get kind of old after a while. We may be dealing with another on Sunday. SREFs finally backed off a good amount on their 03z run for the 2/1 pipe dream. They have been a joke this winter. Not sure why they were obsessed with blowing that system up. Ay any rate, back to focusing on the 2/3 threat....which looks like a 1-3 type event at the moment. I'm sure it will change some though. Here Kev. Does not say 1-3" is a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I did and its what he has I agree as well, but at the same time it may be not much at all of the GFS is right. How many times will you be burned by always going snowy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I agree as well, but at the same time it may be not much at all of the GFS is right. How many times will you be burned by always going snowy?Except for one or two times this winter it's gone really well for my area. Optimism typically pays off. Just try it for this event and see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If I had to make a guess(because at this point it's mostly guessing), the 6th has more potential than the 3rd. The 6th has been showing up on the models for a while now, while the third has been bouncing around and never really became a defined feature. -skisheep i know everyone is looking for the models to show a storm so they can latch on to it...just be careful, whatever overall global pattern we are in, the models are having a hard time sorting things out...some patterns are more forgiving but that's not where we are at the present time...do not forget that last Fridays event was consistently on the models well in advance...even the OC Mets latched on to it and at least a week in advance were forecasting a plowable event...in the end, that was not the case... take the models with a grain of salt...because even at 0hr the models are not 100% accurate with what is going on with the atmosphere...no one model will be the finite answer, and nor will any specific time frame be the finite answer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 i know everyone is looking for the models to show a storm so they can latch on to it...just be careful, whatever overall global pattern we are in, the models are having a hard time sorting things out...some patterns are more forgiving but that's not where we are at the present time...do not forget that last Fridays event was consistently on the models well in advance...even the OC Mets latched on to it and at least a week in advance were forecasting a plowable event...in the end, that was not the case... take the models with a grain of salt...because even at 0hr the models are not 100% accurate with what is going on with the atmosphere...no one model will be the finite answer, and nor will any specific time frame be the finite answer... True, and nothing is certain. Just saying that if I had to pick one to produce, it would be the 6th over the 3rd. However, if 12z continues to be ugly it might be a do over of last friday. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Be wary of the the progressive flow and kicker. Just my $0.02. What is impact of 2/1 blows up offshore? Does it slow the flow for a day or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Except for one or two times this winter it's gone really well for my area. Optimism typically pays off. Just try it for this event and see what happens That's fine, but you should discuss options when they are viable. I do agree it may be a little snow, but too many things can go wrong here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 hopefully it's 3-6 for E areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 hopefully it's 3-6 for E areas. Hopefully a PDII or Blizz 05 occurs soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 What is impact of 2/1 blows up offshore? Does it slow the flow for a day or two? Well it's going to amplify at some point. Whether that is S of us or offshore remains to be seen. I'm skeptical of anything more than light snowfall at this point for the factors I listed earlier. Theme this winter has been for a fast PAC jet not allowing for good amplification. Couple that with s/w that really are all that compact and it leads me to low expectations. The same goes for any follow-up system. If you look at the 00z Euro Op from last night you can see a s/w hot on the heels of the Sunday system. This to me, looks like it may spoil what could be a good system. After that, it looks like the trough axis out west may be too far E to allow for the follow up system to amplify close to the coast for anything substantial. Just my thoughts at this time but subject to change as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Be wary of the the progressive flow and kicker. Just my $0.02. What's a little different this time is we have one of the first s/ws that is coming through the rockies almost thru the ridge south of the main energy. It looks like a hot mess though on the NAM, same old same old. EDIT...meh, NAM is close, but it's pretty disorganized aloft. Could just be the NAM blowing chunks at that range though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Hopefully a PDII or Blizz 05 occurs soon. god i hope so. i do like the look of the pattern going forward with more energy coming out of the southern plains and more moisture available. factor in climo of february and that may help even the coastal dwellers make out a bit better despite us losing some of the cold. some of the runs here and there also have a bit more of "potential cold" look. i.e. while daytime temps may not be especially cold on days when it's sunny, you could easily be 25-30F with precip just because of the Continental push that seems evident north of the gradient. we don't have the ridiculously low thicknesses anymore but almost have a more widespread region covered with cooler air - if you know what i mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 What's a little different this time is we have one of the first s/ws that is coming through the rockies almost thru the ridge south of the main energy. It looks like a hot mess though on the NAM, same old same old. EDIT...meh, NAM is close, but it's pretty disorganized aloft. Could just be the NAM blowing chunks at that range though. Don't even bother with the NAM beyond 24-36h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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