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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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I told him 2 hours ago how icy it was..lol now they have kids out in buses on the side of rds

 

 

   
For everyone out there that has children going to school I just stop all the buses The temperature drops and this fog is freezing all buses are stopped on the side of the road till I make it safe enough for them to roll there's going to be a delay
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Euro has t-2.

as I suspected :) At this point 2" would be my biggest storm in stamford since november(Wasn't here for 12-29 but think we got screwed in that one), so even that would be nice. Have a feeling we get nothing/flurries sunday, but still holding out hope for tuesday.

 

-skisheep

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I told him 2 hours ago how icy it was..lol now they have kids out in buses on the side of rds

Tolland Works

For everyone out there that has children going to school I just stop all the buses The temperature drops and this fog is freezing all buses are stopped on the side of the road till I make it safe enough for them to roll there's going to be a delay

Were you below freezing all night?

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Ok so looking at a few things this morning here is my opinion.

 

As far as the MJO goes, there are two signals. One in Africa and the other near the dateline. The one in Africa would correspond to phase 1 and move east into the IO. This would cause warming for us towards mid February and beyond which IMHO is what the euro ensembles is keying on. The GFS on the other hand seem to keep the dateline convection going and moving it east. This would keep the colder look it is showing. The GFS doesn't seem bullish with the Africa wave right now. Also, models I think are too bullish with the amplitude of this MJO in general. Looking at the CPC page, (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml )I think the wave may be more modest as the euro especially just all of the sudden increases the amplitude of the wave around P8 to P1. I think it may move closer to the COD but stay modest..not as strong as the euro has...but JMHO.

 

What it comes down to is whether the euro or gfs is right. You could make an argument for both and it's rather clear to me that the differences in the models handling the tropics is really having a chaotic affect on the solutions of the GFS and Euro.

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Here is what I mean.This is from Mike Ventrice in the philly forum yesterday. The blues are 200mb divergence and notice how it's over Africa. Models seem to blow this up in the Indian Ocean..well at least the euro does.

 

post-33-0-48702800-1359550665_thumb.gif

 

 

Now look at the GFS. See how it moves it east towards South America? Note the greens indicating 200mb divergence. Now look over Africa and the Indian Ocean Notice how the greens are minimal and there is actually suppression.

 

post-33-0-55766900-1359550774_thumb.gif

 

 

So this is where models are differing.

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Well a nice change to models last night. GEFS looked a bit better and so does the EC. Like we said, can't always hug models.

I'm not which is why I said a week+ ago that I thought by the 8 th things would start to unload. One run of the models looking better isn't going to change that. We will see how it develops but my expectations are super low.

Jerry, I'm of the same mindset as you. Eventually the law of a averages comes into play. Something has to go right soon.

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Yeah model runs last night were def less hostile in the LR...I do like the much stormier look in the long range, even if it means we risk tainting.

 

I like pure snowfall as much as anyone, but the 1-3" events get kind of old after a while. We may be dealing with another on Sunday.

 

 

SREFs finally backed off a good amount on their 03z run for the 2/1 pipe dream. They have been a joke this winter. Not sure why they were obsessed with blowing that system up. Ay any rate, back to focusing on the 2/3 threat....which looks like a 1-3 type event at the moment. I'm sure it will change some though.

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