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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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Very nice op gfs run tonight.

one flurry (fri)   one 2-3 inch snow fall (sunday) if it doesnt develop later than currently prog'd. , one 2-3 inch snowfall tuesday and then a solid storm moving thru that may have taint near the ocean.   not anything special, but for this winter it's as good as it gets.

 

O/U for boston snowfall is 19.5 inches

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one flurry (fri)   one 2-3 inch snow fall (sunday) if it doesnt develop later than currently prog'd. , one 2-3 inch snowfall tuesday and then a solid storm moving thru that may have taint near the ocean.   not anything special, but for this winter it's as good as it gets.

 

O/U for boston snowfall is 19.5 inches

Over and its not even a decision. I'd set it at 29".

 

And I just saw this tweet from Bastardi and literally laughed out loud. Now using the KMA to verify forecasts? lol.

 

"Winter over????Not if KMA is right as its blocking pattern Feb 11-March 10 very similar to Snowmeggedon month of Feb 10"

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Over and its not even a decision. I'd set it at 29".

And I just saw this tweet from Bastardi and literally laughed out loud. Now using the KMA to verify forecasts? lol.

"Winter over????Not if KMA is right as its blocking pattern Feb 11-March 10 very similar to Snowmeggedon month of Feb 10"

Qvector expects the colder side to return at the end of the month. Winter isn't going to end, we are just likely to see more cycling and more rapid cycling. Good. Nws Taunton hit it well. More storms some could be warm. We've got a week of this pattern, maybe we can get lucky on one or more of these three systems. After that who knows.

I bet this year we get a snow event in march. It might be surrounded by warm, but who cares. We are coming out of snowpack season anyway.

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Qvector expects the colder side to return at the end of the month. Winter isn't going to end, we are just likely to see more cycling and more rapid cycling. Good. Nws Taunton hit it well. More storms some could be warm. We've got a week of this pattern, maybe we can get lucky on one or more of these three systems. After that who knows.

I bet this year we get a snow event in march. It might be surrounded by warm, but who cares. We are coming out of snowpack season anyway.

Agreed, and I feel like they could play well up here in Plymouth. I'm sure they'll be some suppression at first, but all of us will get our snow. 

And I wasn't implying the fact that winter was over, more laughing at the fact that Bastardi tweeted a pic of the KMA :lol:

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one flurry (fri)   one 2-3 inch snow fall (sunday) if it doesnt develop later than currently prog'd. , one 2-3 inch snowfall tuesday and then a solid storm moving thru that may have taint near the ocean.   not anything special, but for this winter it's as good as it gets.

 

O/U for boston snowfall is 19.5 inches

there sittin at what 9.8. ya perhaps 19.5 is low  but i'm not sold on this week producin more than a dusting yet, then we mild up in about 10 days.

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Qvector expects the colder side to return at the end of the month. Winter isn't going to end, we are just likely to see more cycling and more rapid cycling. Good. Nws Taunton hit it well. More storms some could be warm. We've got a week of this pattern, maybe we can get lucky on one or more of these three systems. After that who knows.

I bet this year we get a snow event in march. It might be surrounded by warm, but who cares. We are coming out of snowpack season anyway.

 

For who.  He said 2'nd half of feb is seasonal to above and ....well here's the quote

 

.."So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see normal to slightly above normal anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 29....when the PV re-consolidates. Also matches up with the MJO dynamical forecasts that would take us into phase 2/3 by mid Feb resulting in a warmer or more seasonable scenario for the last half of Feb. I just have a feeling when using the strat. and GWO analogs that the base state of the 850 temps for Feb will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold over the region like we have for the end of Jan. Snowfall across the region looks about normal to slightly above normal. Big winners look like a line from KS to upper WI for Feb. I think as the general storm track shifts west with a -PNA for the second half of the month.

 

 

I don't see the demise of winter though. My 3 month temp analogs have March running near normal across the NE and below normal for the GLKS. So there is a gradient there. Along with a snow gradient...GLKS cashes in for Marchs while the NE can either be near normal or just horrendous snowfall totals. Seems to be dependent on the PDO. If the PDO can avg. above .5 for about 4-6 weeks during Feb or early March then the NE sees near normal snowfall if the PDO is below .5 or negative the NE gets screwed. And with a PDO>.5 the NE sees below normal temps also. IDK...just and interesting trend I noticed in my neutral ENSO years. Who knows if it's statistically significant.
 
 
meh sounds like bunch of cutters second half of feb followed by cold shots or clippers.  and march well, i don't trust LR forecasts over a month, but well see. IF we want to get to 30 in bos, and were not banking on a KU this year, i think bos will need advisory snows in sun or tues system.
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We havent even had two bad ones in a row yet, lets see what Feb/March brings before we give this one a bad rating.

well ya .....in southbridge your prob right around average for year, while NNE/CNE is below and so is E ma so you don't need as much help to have a solid winter. NNE just needs a lot of qpf, and e coastal mass needs a small miracle (BOS) to get to 43 from 8.6 or so

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Cpick79 I must have read someone else's post with the double quote thing because what you posted is right but much different. That sounds exciting.

6z gfs back to reality with the first three systems. There's no reason to expect a different outcome regardless of what the srefs say etc. Ie expect that none of these systems can develop in time to do much unless we see that change and stick inside of 60-72.

10 day euro is a yawn too. We are chewing up lots of winter clock without much to show for it. Beyond 10 or so days does it get more interesting with storms? Sure does. Only ten more days.

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Cpick79 I must have read someone else's post with the double quote thing because what you posted is right but much different. That sounds exciting.

6z gfs back to reality with the first three systems. There's no reason to expect a different outcome regardless of what the srefs say etc. Ie expect that none of these systems can develop in time to do much unless we see that change and stick inside of 60-72.

10 day euro is a yawn too. We are chewing up lots of winter clock without much to show for it. Beyond 10 or so days does it get more interesting with storms? Sure does. Only ten more days.

I think qv in a different quote had cold coming back late February early march. I'll see if I could find it.....

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Last half of Feb looks banging with plenty of S/W's. Recap....we had xt RTW that was in the pacific last wednesday arrived on the 24 early 25th in a couple pieces. The RWT that was over India last week is still expected to arrive Feb 4 or 5 it appears as a clipper. Behind this RWT we will see a shot of cold Feb 5-7. Then Feb 7 or 8 another RWT which was over Africa last week should arrive and colder air moving in behind it for Feb 7-11. This one started off at a pretty high latitude so I believe it will be a weak clipper. It appears after that we will see at LEAST at 5-10 degree warm up for Feb. 11-13 ahead of the next system that will pass through the east Feb 14 or 15 with a quick shot of cooler air behind it before another S/W arrives Feb 18 or 19th (tentative)The pattern is really chaotic as HM, others and myself have noted so it's harder to bit on the signals 4 weeks out right now so I am waiting for newer GWO data to reconfirm or disprove my thoughts about S/W's beyond Feb 14, part of the reason why I left the Feb 18/19 S/W tentative because the arrival date may change +/-1 day. But tentative dates I have for other S/W's and shots of cooler air are feb 21-25 and Feb 27-March 3.

Bold.

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I think qv in a different quote had cold coming back late February early march. I'll see if I could find it.....

Jerry maybe a double quote issue where we both read it as his words but was someone else?

South coast ma lol. Pattern is changing now even the whiffs whiff.

Srefs are only right when they show a miss, gfs only wrong when it shows hits.

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Cpick79 I must have read someone else's post with the double quote thing because what you posted is right but much different. That sounds exciting.

6z gfs back to reality with the first three systems. There's no reason to expect a different outcome regardless of what the srefs say etc. Ie expect that none of these systems can develop in time to do much unless we see that change and stick inside of 60-72.

10 day euro is a yawn too. We are chewing up lots of winter clock without much to show for it. Beyond 10 or so days does it get more interesting with storms? Sure does. Only ten more days.

 

LOL--"the first three systems" comment is a hoot.  I was doing my model catch up this morning and was so please with what the 00z run was showing.  What a disappointment to see the 06z run.  Oh, well.  I don't even get to have my "plains cold" during my Iowa trip next week.  This winter needs a kick in the pants.

 

31.0/30

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Wtf? I looked at it just now and it papered pretty wintry for the majority of the run.

The first three look like duds on most models 2-1 2-3 and 2-6 as of this moment. Then we are forced to look deep into the run. I just can't believe a region wide 4-8 is so difficult.

LC cancelled winter for the east coast last night supposedly. Seems to be a growing chorus that whatever winter there is to be had is going to shift well to the west.

At least we got about a week of cold weather out of it.

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The first three look like duds on most models 2-1 2-3 and 2-6 as of this moment. Then we are forced to look deep into the run. I just can't believe a region wide 4-8 is so difficult.

LC cancelled winter for the east coast last night supposedly. Seems to be a growing chorus that whatever winter there is to be had is going to shift well to the west.

At least we got about a week of cold weather out of it.

Scott, those are KU s this year. Chances of precip is all I want. Things have a tendency to develop better or worse closer in.

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I think we actually have a nice few weeks of winter on the way. Snow chances.

 

Well it could change at 12z lol, but I'll reiterate what I've said for a week now. It will turn stormier and not every event will be white....but hell...we'll have some chances. I like the overall look.

 

My time of ugliness...possibly near thr 10th as a warm front/low approaches and we may be dealing with a messy mix. That event could be more liquid, but then it cools after. The overall pattern certainly is more active.

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