Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,618
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    RyRyB
    Newest Member
    RyRyB
    Joined

SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

Recommended Posts

I think we see huge swings from Feb 8th onwards, but nothing locking in.......I do think we are done with Arctic air outside a day or two shot though, I think Feb ends up above climo snow wise, just feel a lucky hit 2nd half of month.  All you need is good timing, but at least we turn stormy even though some will cut I think we get at least one big one to end the season if not a couple.

 

I think temperatures might be a touch colder than predicted this weekend (Upton has 33/25 and 39/24), and then we may see an arctic shot behind the 2/5 threat if it manages to amplify since the PV is still hanging around near Quebec/Hudson Bay. However, winter's coldest may have passed as the stratospheric seems to be rapidly cooling and long-range models show the PV re-organizing over Kamchatka/Siberia which may put an end to our arctic outbreaks, at least for February. The effects of the sudden stratospheric warming seem to dwindle past mid-February, which is when the possibility for warmth becomes stronger.

 

Personally, I disagree that we get the big snowfall/KU event the 2nd half of February. I think the first half of the month, and potentially early March, look more favorable for a widespread 6-12" event. Some years that had weak +ENSO fading towards neutral/Nina were 53-54, 77-78, 03-04, and 04-05. Here's what March snowfall in BOS looked like in those winters:

 

March '54: 0.4" (chilly March in many places though)

March '78: 16.1" (snowiest March of late 70s but overlooked because of February blizzard)

March '04: 10.6" (storms near equinox were great down here too)

March '05: 14.5" (excellent March)

 

The only thing going against us is the rapid cooling of the Pacific with a Nina emerging quickly:

post-475-0-98647700-1359507407_thumb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 2.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

mike have you narrowed down any vaca/rental home locale's (vt/nh/maine)

 

The Jackson, NH area is the front-runner.  Bethel and Waterford, ME area are still there, but in the background.

 

We'll be checking out a few possibilties in Jackson the weekend after next.  Hopefully they'll have more snow by then after the tropical monsoon en route.

 

27.9/27

 

EDIT:  just went out to grab wood--lots of glaze out there at the moment.  Icicles taking form--always a nice thing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We just haven't been lucky. Even though we've had some patterns that have been on the verge of delivering poorly timed shortwaves and phasing has just screwed us. I would say in any other winter we probably would have been a bit more lucky but we just have wound up on the crappy side of things.

 

Most of CT is near average snowfall for the time of year (22" in my backyard) so even though it's been a bore we've certainly see much worse. 

 

Ryan I think our understanding of the interconnections has been dealt a bit of a blow the last year or two.   We understand some of the pieces but we're figuring out that even though they may go together in a similar way as past years the results may be totally different. 

 

Voodoo was probably a bad choice of words but maybe some of these indicators are being relied on too much in terms of the weather they may produce when it's kind of obvious we don't know what it all means quite yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think temperatures might be a touch colder than predicted this weekend (Upton has 33/25 and 39/24), and then we may see an arctic shot behind the 2/5 threat if it manages to amplify since the PV is still hanging around near Quebec/Hudson Bay. However, winter's coldest may have passed as the stratospheric seems to be rapidly cooling and long-range models show the PV re-organizing over Kamchatka/Siberia which may put an end to our arctic outbreaks, at least for February. The effects of the sudden stratospheric warming seem to dwindle past mid-February, which is when the possibility for warmth becomes stronger.

 

Personally, I disagree that we get the big snowfall/KU event the 2nd half of February. I think the first half of the month, and potentially early March, look more favorable for a widespread 6-12" event. Some years that had weak +ENSO fading towards neutral/Nina were 53-54, 77-78, 03-04, and 04-05. Here's what March snowfall in BOS looked like in those winters:

 

March '54: 0.4" (chilly March in many places though)

March '78: 16.1" (snowiest March of late 70s but overlooked because of February blizzard)

March '04: 10.6" (storms near equinox were great down here too)

March '05: 14.5" (excellent March)

 

The only thing going against us is the rapid cooling of the Pacific with a Nina emerging quickly:

attachicon.gifpacsst1.28.gif

I will take my chances with milder/stormier,time will tell.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SREFs weenied out even more than 15z for the 2/1 system. We'll see if the 00z suite gives it any support. But SREF has solid advisory for a good chunk of SNE. Esp eastern areas.

 

SREFs weenied out even more than 15z for the 2/1 system. We'll see if the 00z suite gives it any support. But SREF has solid advisory for a good chunk of SNE. Esp eastern areas.

 

You guys might be doing pretty well with that.  Tough one for out here by the looks of it, but glad some might score a win.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SREFs weenied out even more than 15z for the 2/1 system. We'll see if the 00z suite gives it any support. But SREF has solid advisory for a good chunk of SNE. Esp eastern areas.

 

Will really weird pattern this winter with the models.  The 2/1 thing was picked up on by every model but the OP Euro at one time or another (GGEM/GFS/GEFS/NOGAPS and even the JMA) only to be dropped.    Yet it seems to be coming back.  I like the dual s/w's coming down, it has a chance.  Maybe this is the one we've been looking for to break our way.  We'll see shortly. 

 

One reason post SREFs that I'm interested is the NOGAPs has had the storm for a few runs.  It's a little weak but around the BM.  Kind of tells me maybe this is a solid signal this time???

 

The 18z GEFS aren't biting, still flat and lame. Hoping for the big hit for this winter which loosely translated is a dusting to an inch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NAM looked a bit better ont he 2/1 threat but still not supporting the SREFs. In the end it was still just weenie flakes for far southeast areas.

 

The WRFNMM looks more like the SREF's its last few runs, this could just be typical lousy NAM beyond 60 hours, even the 18Z GFS seemed closer...the CRAS even it has it for goodness sake!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The WRFNMM looks more like the SREF's its last few runs, this could just be typical lousy NAM beyond 60 hours, even the 18Z GFS seemed closer...the CRAS even it has it for goodness sake!!!

Nam blew from the 18 hour range... Ie the features were moved quite a bit. Could be first guidance to see something new or the nam sucking wind as usual. We will see in an hour.

It's really close just doesn't get it together. Reason I think it might be off is these are strong features unlike the messes we often have had.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...