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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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I think we see huge swings from Feb 8th onwards, but nothing locking in.......I do think we are done with Arctic air outside a day or two shot though, I think Feb ends up above climo snow wise, just feel a lucky hit 2nd half of month.  All you need is good timing, but at least we turn stormy even though some will cut I think we get at least one big one to end the season if not a couple.

 

 

Right now one MECS would be welcomed, That is something that's been missing the last couple winters, All we have had are just a bunch of pedestrian events that for some have over performed

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The mjo stuff still seems like voodoo at best. Certainly there is little skill in how it relates to winter storminess as demonstrated by the abject failure of all the positive talk for a winter or two.

Our understanding of the interaction between all the various features is still more limited than we think. IMHO.

We understand parts but not all of the picture, not enough to offer any real skill above the operational models or ensembles in the longer ranges. If the pattern does fall apart after the 8th or 10th....after we have been hearing about so much promise since December. Ugh.

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The MJO is not voodoo. The physics behind it drive the pattern. What is sometimes difficult are the MJO forecasts. There are three variables that go into MJO forecasts. Many times they are not in sync and this causes model chaos.

 

Not sure why the sudden hate on the MJO. It's a pretty powerful tool. Like everything else it's just one piece of the puzzle. 

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And the puzzle has had a lot of missing pieces this winter

 

We just haven't been lucky. Even though we've had some patterns that have been on the verge of delivering poorly timed shortwaves and phasing has just screwed us. I would say in any other winter we probably would have been a bit more lucky but we just have wound up on the crappy side of things.

 

Most of CT is near average snowfall for the time of year (22" in my backyard) so even though it's been a bore we've certainly see much worse. 

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We just haven't been lucky. Even though we've had some patterns that have been on the verge of delivering poorly timed shortwaves and phasing has just screwed us. I would say in any other winter we probably would have been a bit more lucky but we just have wound up on the crappy side of things.

 

Most of CT is near average snowfall for the time of year (22" in my backyard) so even though it's been a bore we've certainly see much worse. 

 

CT seems to be doing the best relative to normal (at least as a percent of normal) in New England... however BTV has been lucky too and is above normal as well, while the upslope region is running about 75% of normal, though January was only like 40% of normal.

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We just haven't been lucky. Even though we've had some patterns that have been on the verge of delivering poorly timed shortwaves and phasing has just screwed us. I would say in any other winter we probably would have been a bit more lucky but we just have wound up on the crappy side of things.

 

Most of CT is near average snowfall for the time of year (22" in my backyard) so even though it's been a bore we've certainly see much worse. 

 

 

It has been a lot of bad luck, No blocking hurt when the pattern looked promising, We have had a number of pedestrian events that have over performed for a lot of you in SNE, Not so much up here, Actually 1 of the 2 that over performed was last night here where GYX had me 1-2" and we were locked into a decent band with 1"/hr rates and ended up with 3", Other then that 1 week stretch in late december it has been pretty much abysmal, A lot of you guys in CT have more snow then some of us up here

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CT seems to be doing the best relative to normal (at least as a percent of normal) in New England... however BTV has been lucky too and is above normal as well, while the upslope oregion is running about 75% of normal, though January was only like 40% of normal.

I need about 21 more inches to hit avg for winter which is 58. Certainly doable with 3 shots at storms over the next 10 before it ends
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