dryslot Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I think we see huge swings from Feb 8th onwards, but nothing locking in.......I do think we are done with Arctic air outside a day or two shot though, I think Feb ends up above climo snow wise, just feel a lucky hit 2nd half of month. All you need is good timing, but at least we turn stormy even though some will cut I think we get at least one big one to end the season if not a couple. Right now one MECS would be welcomed, That is something that's been missing the last couple winters, All we have had are just a bunch of pedestrian events that for some have over performed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 High was 33.6 today AWT. 32.2 currently No melting..but by Thursday morning it will look like Dc around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 High was 33.6 today AWT. 32.2 currently No melting..but by Thursday morning it will look like Dc around here Wrinkly necks flapping in the warm breeze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Snow eating fog is here. Probably won't be much snow left my morning. Basically a dusting left right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 And so the melting begins....or at least approaches. 28.1/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 mike you are far and away the best spot for Cold air damming for SNE posters. 28.1 nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 mike have you narrowed down any vaca/rental home locale's (vt/nh/maine) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The mjo stuff still seems like voodoo at best. Certainly there is little skill in how it relates to winter storminess as demonstrated by the abject failure of all the positive talk for a winter or two. Our understanding of the interaction between all the various features is still more limited than we think. IMHO. We understand parts but not all of the picture, not enough to offer any real skill above the operational models or ensembles in the longer ranges. If the pattern does fall apart after the 8th or 10th....after we have been hearing about so much promise since December. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The MJO is not voodoo. The physics behind it drive the pattern. What is sometimes difficult are the MJO forecasts. There are three variables that go into MJO forecasts. Many times they are not in sync and this causes model chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Feeling a St Patty's Day Blizzard this year, that was always a good date for snows it seemed growing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The MJO is not voodoo. The physics behind it drive the pattern. What is sometimes difficult are the MJO forecasts. There are three variables that go into MJO forecasts. Many times they are not in sync and this causes model chaos. Not sure why the sudden hate on the MJO. It's a pretty powerful tool. Like everything else it's just one piece of the puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Feeling a St Patty's Day Blizzard this year, that was always a good date for snows it seemed growing up. I approve! That'd be fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 And the puzzle has had a lot of missing pieces this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 And the puzzle has had a lot of missing pieces this winter We just haven't been lucky. Even though we've had some patterns that have been on the verge of delivering poorly timed shortwaves and phasing has just screwed us. I would say in any other winter we probably would have been a bit more lucky but we just have wound up on the crappy side of things. Most of CT is near average snowfall for the time of year (22" in my backyard) so even though it's been a bore we've certainly see much worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 And the puzzle has had a lot of missing pieces this winter lol. No denying that. This winter is all about small victories, like holding onto 32F for an extra half hour or so prior to the thaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 We just haven't been lucky. Even though we've had some patterns that have been on the verge of delivering poorly timed shortwaves and phasing has just screwed us. I would say in any other winter we probably would have been a bit more lucky but we just have wound up on the crappy side of things. Most of CT is near average snowfall for the time of year (22" in my backyard) so even though it's been a bore we've certainly see much worse. CT seems to be doing the best relative to normal (at least as a percent of normal) in New England... however BTV has been lucky too and is above normal as well, while the upslope region is running about 75% of normal, though January was only like 40% of normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 We just haven't been lucky. Even though we've had some patterns that have been on the verge of delivering poorly timed shortwaves and phasing has just screwed us. I would say in any other winter we probably would have been a bit more lucky but we just have wound up on the crappy side of things. Most of CT is near average snowfall for the time of year (22" in my backyard) so even though it's been a bore we've certainly see much worse. It has been a lot of bad luck, No blocking hurt when the pattern looked promising, We have had a number of pedestrian events that have over performed for a lot of you in SNE, Not so much up here, Actually 1 of the 2 that over performed was last night here where GYX had me 1-2" and we were locked into a decent band with 1"/hr rates and ended up with 3", Other then that 1 week stretch in late december it has been pretty much abysmal, A lot of you guys in CT have more snow then some of us up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 32.0 with some tickling ZR currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I am running about the same as last year snowfall wise with basically the same pack which is below normal, I think oceanstwx posted the other day that GYX was -12"+ snow from climo and i am just to there east and is close to the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 CT seems to be doing the best relative to normal (at least as a percent of normal) in New England... however BTV has been lucky too and is above normal as well, while the upslope oregion is running about 75% of normal, though January was only like 40% of normal.I need about 21 more inches to hit avg for winter which is 58. Certainly doable with 3 shots at storms over the next 10 before it ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I will need 36" to hit avg, Unless we get real lucky its not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Some have compared this winter to 1968-69. I would argue the prog resembles that particularly as we go later into the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I think we need to stop comparing this winter to other winters..No 2 winters resemble one another. it is it's own winter..and when it's over it will go down however it ends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I think we need to stop comparing this winter to other winters..No 2 winters resemble one another. it is it's own winter..and when it's over it will go down however it ends The results may be similar, but the equation never looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The results may be similar, but the equation never looks the same. e=m2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah, It will go down like last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The results may be similar, but the equation never looks the same. You could relate that to many things besides weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah, It will go down like last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 You could relate that to many things besides weather Very True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Some have compared this winter to 1968-69. I would argue the prog resembles that particularly as we go later into the month. maybe he'll bring back the avatar? that was a good try Jer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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