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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

Meltdown VIX will be low right now, people are in disbelief and figure the Euro is wrong.  GFS being hugged, but like I said I think the GFS has been going the wrong way and hinting at a bad outcome for several days.  GEFS JMHO are going to follow suit eventually.

It can and will still snow, but the pattern is breaking down right after this set of systems ending around 2/6 or 2/8.

 

Seeing as how I picked up 4.5" since 12/29, I'm all set with this current pattern.  If it's warmer, so be it.  Springlike? All the better.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

P1 from what I can tell can be warm in Feb, although I admit, it may not be a strong correlation. To be honest Ive seen different opinions on P1.

 

It certainly doesnt have the coldest look on most sources, but it is NOTHING like this pattern shown on the euro ensembles on any source I've seen. 500 mb composites im looking at on the CWG site show a Feb phase 1 MJO with a +NAO look, but still low heights on the east coast to the south..There is a gulf of alaska low with ridging up and over from the aleutians over Alaska and into western Canada..this alaskan vortex idea on the ensembles looks like a direct response to what it wants to do at 50 mb...hopefully it is done in error, or at least further west across the west pac like earlier runs that still kept a PNA look

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

 

gfs is smoking what the srefs are trying to sell, looked decent at 500, small surface reflection and some white

 

Eh, not really...SREFs were a lot beefier. But 18z GFS def looked a bit mor eimpresive than the 12z run.

Most guidance gives at least some weenie flakes or a coating from that vortmax...remains to be seen if we get another 1-2" event from it though. I'd be interested more if I was on the Cape.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

  

Eh, not really...SREFs were a lot beefier. But 18z GFS def looked a bit mor eimpresive than the 12z run.

Most guidance gives at least some weenie flakes or a coating from that vortmax...remains to be seen if we get another 1-2" event from it though. I'd be interested more if I was on the Cape.

Srefs are a joke this winter and at this range, hopefully one of these vorts will be able to cut under long island and amplify enough to deliver a region wide 3-6.  Such a progressive pattern.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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It certainly doesnt have the coldest look on most sources, but it is NOTHING like this pattern shown on the euro ensembles on any source I've seen. 500 mb composites im looking at on the CWG site show a Feb phase 1 MJO with a +NAO look, but still low heights on the east coast to the south..There is a gulf of alaska low with ridging up and over from the aleutians over Alaska and into western Canada..this alaskan vortex idea on the ensembles looks like a direct response to what it wants to do at 50 mb...hopefully it is done in error, or at least further west across the west pac like earlier runs that still kept a PNA look

 

Yeah I see what you are saying. I really don't know why...but one idea I have is with this wicked AAM spike, the PAC jet sure is fired up and may actually help to force too much PAC air into the US. I dunno...this isn't my forte...but something got into the models...especially the euro ensembles. The GEFS and CEFS look nothing.,...nothing like the EC, so, this gives me pause and a reason to tell weenies to relax. Usually, when the models disagree that badly, something gives ansd a compromise ensues. I may be wrong, but I also don't have a concrete reason to side with the EC 100%....especially when other models disagree.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

  

Eh, not really...SREFs were a lot beefier. But 18z GFS def looked a bit mor eimpresive than the 12z run.

Most guidance gives at least some weenie flakes or a coating from that vortmax...remains to be seen if we get another 1-2" event from it though. I'd be interested more if I was on the Cape.

 

Yeah, right now we have no reason to think this is anything other than what we've already been having...scraper.  I have hopes though, those are impressive features. 

next one is meh on the GFS.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

Posted
Posted

Furthermore with regards to the MJO, the signal appears to be a muddled mess right now. The phase diagrams would lead you to believe its hung up in phase 7 and ready to propogate again soon as shown by dynamical models, but there are certain aspects of the wave that appear to be already in phase 1/entering the western IO. Mike Ventrice over in the Philly thread has been discussing this for a few days now if you haven't read. All in all, this lends me much less confidence in using the MJO for a large scale pattern predictor right now..Someone just mentioned it as voodoo, thats not very far off at all as far as this year goes..what a mess it has been.. This really looks like a stratosphere linking on the GEFS/EC ens to me. 

 

PS, congrats Will !

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Furthermore with regards to the MJO, the signal appears to be a muddled mess right now. The phase diagrams would lead you to believe its hung up in phase 7 and ready to propogate again soon as shown by dynamical models, but there are certain aspects of the wave that appear to be already in phase 1/entering the western IO. Mike Ventrice over in the Philly thread has been discussing this for a few days now if you haven't read. All in all, this lends me much less confidence in using the MJO for a large scale pattern predictor right now..Someone just mentioned it as voodoo, thats not very far off at all as far as this year goes..what a mess it has been.. This really looks like a stratosphere linking on the GEFS/EC ens to me.

PS, congrats Will !

Yeah he mentioned that which is why I'm trying to figure out what models are seeing. The euro may be keying in on the Africa sector moving east hitch makes me a little nervous. But, a muddled signal IMHO should not rip apart the ridging in NW Canada. So I would relax a bit if I was ready to cancel worst after 2/10.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST...

EVALUATING THE PRESENT NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AT H5...A STRONG
RIDGING PATTERN IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE WESTERN PACIFIC WITH LITTLE
BLOCKING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC. WITH A POSITIVE NAO/AO SIGNAL COUPLED
WITH A SLIGHTLY POSITIVE PNA...AM EXPECTING THE WESTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...
AHEAD OF WHICH A TROUGH-PATTERN WILL DOMINATE.

WHILE THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE DISCREPANCIES CONCERNING THE AMPLITUDE
OF THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS WITH TIME...AS WELL AS THE
MORPHOLOGY OF DISTURBANCES THRU THE LONGWAVE FLOW /SEEN PRESENTLY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC PER NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC ANALYSIS/ AND WHETHER
THEY CAN TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH...AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEK. ANOMALOUS STRATOSPHERIC WARMING
HAS WEAKENED...AND THE GLOBAL TELECONNECTIONS DO NOT SUGGEST AN
REOCCURING INFLUX OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE SOUTH AS WE SAW LAST WEEK.
THEREFORE...WITH THE EXPECTED ACTIVE PATTERN...THERE MAY BE
CHALLENGES CONCERNING PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH ANY STORM SYSTEMS.

WILL CONCEDE TO A BLEND OF THE 29.12Z GFS AND 29.0Z ECMWF. WHILE
DISTURBANCES ARE ANTICIPATED...CLOUDS ARE TO BE THE LIKELY OUTCOME.
THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY AND PERHAPS SUNDAY
AS DISTURBANCES SWEEPING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TAP INTO BETTER MOISTURE
AS THEY MOVE OFFSHORE. THERE IS EVEN A HINT OF A MIDWEEK SYSTEM
AROUND TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WHETHER PRECIPITATION WILL
EFFECTIVELY WRAP AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING DISTURBANCES
WARRANTING WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN
AROUND SEASONABLE LEVELS.
 

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

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Yeah I see what you are saying. I really don't know why...but one idea I have is with this wicked AAM spike, the PAC jet sure is fired up and may actually help to force too much PAC air into the US. I dunno...this isn't my forte...but something got into the models...especially the euro ensembles. The GEFS and CEFS look nothing.,...nothing like the EC, so, this gives me pause and a reason to tell weenies to relax. Usually, when the models disagree that badly, something gives ansd a compromise ensues. I may be wrong, but I also don't have a concrete reason to side with the EC 100%....especially when other models disagree.

 

Point taken for sure. The GEFS dont look as bad, they arent great or terribly far off from the euro though. The 12z were arguably a tick worse looking as well in the long range versus the 00z..They just are more +WPO allowing more of a +PNA  (which would definitely mute new england warmth), which is what I'm hoping for. Perhaps those differences are related to MJO handling? I just dont know. 

 

Either way you cut it, hard cold looks done, which is why energy guys were bailing yesterday (i realize you know this)

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Point taken for sure. The GEFS dont look as bad, they arent great or terribly far off from the euro though. The 12z were arguably a tick worse looking as well in the long range versus the 00z..They just are more +WPO allowing more of a +PNA (which would definitely mute new england warmth), which is what I'm hoping for. Perhaps those differences are related to MJO handling? I just dont know.

Yeah they did take a step back, but if you look at the H5 pattern differences from hr300 on....boy there are some differences out west. I guess basically you can find a reason to argue with either suite, but I would be telling a lie if I said I'm not concerned. Part of me sides with the euro, however if its even a little too bullish.....it's still ok up here. I do think the tropics are fooking things up which then plays games with the Pacific.

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NJwinter23

NJwinter23

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Yeah they did take a step back, but if you look at the H5 pattern differences from hr300 on....boy there are some differences out west. I guess basically you can find a reason to argue with either suite, but I would be telling a lie if I said I'm not concerned. Part of me sides with the euro, however if its even a little too bullish.....it's still ok up here. I do think the tropics are fooking things up which then plays games with the Pacific.

Yeah ya know there does seem to be a tendency on the gefs to shift the bering straight region vortex westward with time..who knows, maybe the euro ensembles would do that post 360 or trend towards that as well...i can vibe with that idea. With the vortex retreated to the other side of the pole though at this point, I could see us bootlegging it again with a +PNA, and higher heights near greenland in response to the retreated vortex. It would be december all over again, except maybe we can keep a +PNA this time

PS congrats to you as well with the newborn. Dont remember if I got a chance to say that in the recent weeks

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yeah ya know there does seem to be a tendency on the gefs to shift the bering straight region vortex westward with time..who knows, maybe the euro ensembles would do that post 360 or trend towards that as well...i can vibe with that idea. With the vortex retreated to the other side of the pole though at this point, I could see us bootlegging it again with a +PNA, and higher heights near greenland in response to the retreated vortex. It would be december all over again, except maybe we can keep a +PNA this time

PS congrats to you as well with the newborn. Dont remember if I got a chance to say that in the recent weeks

Thank you man. It's a reason why I'm careful with my wording because I can't always look in depth anymore lol.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Fire up the departure bus...

I think we see huge swings from Feb 8th onwards, but nothing locking in.......I do think we are done with Arctic air outside a day or two shot though, I think Feb ends up above climo snow wise, just feel a lucky hit 2nd half of month.  All you need is good timing, but at least we turn stormy even though some will cut I think we get at least one big one to end the season if not a couple.

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