Ginx snewx Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 It seems like its mostly the ARW members that were ran from Kevin's basement that run. But even several of the others do have like 1-2" which is a lot more than any of the other operational guidance. Euro did have some weenie flakes...GFS didn't even have that except the Cape/ACK and Ginx's southern RI beaches.SREFS Okey dokey, look forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 We Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 We Toss We pray. O how we pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 We pray. O how we pray. After seeing the euro ensembles, we all need to bow our heads and pray hard..at least in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Lay the bongs down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 After seeing the euro ensembles, we all need to bow our heads and pray hard..at least in SNE. Can you elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Likely due to how the models handles the MJO...which as we all know is fickle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 After seeing the euro ensembles, we all need to bow our heads and pray hard..at least in SNE. winter cancel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Can you elaborate? Strong PAC jet and SE ridge. Just saying what it shows, part of me believes this solution to a point...but It's a very different look than the GEFS so it gives me pause. Even the euro ensembles last night which were still not great looking offered some wintry looks. A compromise would make us happy I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The PAC has been our demise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Strong PAC jet and SE ridge. Just saying what it shows, part of me believes this solution to a point...but It's a very different look than the GEFS so it gives me pause. Even the euro ensembles last night which were still not great looking offered some wintry looks. A compromise would make us happy I think. I hope you weren't shocked, JMHO the OP GFS has been kind of telling this tale off and on for days. We need to make this happen now. 2/1 is probably going to be a real deal. I'd stopped looking at it just out of disinterest...but nice catch by WeatherX on the srefs. 18z NAM is coming onto the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I hope you weren't shocked, JMHO the OP GFS has been kind of telling this tale off and on for days. We need to make this happen now. 2/1 is probably going to be a real deal. I'd stopped looking at it just out of disinterest...but nice catch by WeatherX on the srefs. 18z NAM is coming onto the bus. Meh, 18z NAM pretty much wide right again except some weenie snow for SE MA. Pretty much on par with the global models. Not impossible to get it further west, but task will be tough in that flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Meh, 18z NAM pretty much wide right again except some weenie snow for SE MA. Pretty much on par with the global models. Not impossible to get it further west, but task will be tough in that flow. Heh, true and sadly I kind of feel that's the way the next couple roll too. 2/1 still has a shot though just like the other ones. Scott has sent weenies into a screaming panic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'd laugh my butt off if winter ends in a week....seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'd laugh my butt off if winter ends in a week....seriously. I don't think it ends Jerry, I bet we still have wintry threats but the pattern is breaking down pretty quickly after this series of event. I figured 2/8 ish and done about the times shab said 2/14, seems even a few days faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Friday deal is a non issue. Sunday could turn into a warning event though. Pay attn to that one and step away from Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Certainly a bad look by d10 but I see plenty of snow chances d5-8 with even a threat D10 before the pattern sh*ts the bed. Probably rushing it but I bet it's warm here by 2/15-2/25 and colding down in time to make Kevin's assertion of March wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Pants tent February has turn limp. Fitting for this winter. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I never gave much credence to Friday. Sunday and again Tuesday/Wednesday are our big chances and maybe again around d10. Is that it for awhile? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I never gave much credence to Friday. Sunday and again Tuesday/Wednesday are our big chances and maybe again around d10. Is that it for awhile? Friday is a storm killer, hope that thing blows up 500 miles northeast of the Cape, Sunday looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Never even looked to friday but that would prob screw the pooch on the other 2 going forward, Not enough space between the s/w's to get them to amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Never even looked to friday but that would prob screw the pooch on the other 2 going forward, Not enough space between the s/w's to get them to amplify Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Pitchers and catchers due in camp 2/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 when the rev says lay the bongs down WRT to a threat, we know nothing is gonna fall.........at least till this hits the Gulf stream ha ha and i wont be praying for this pattern of super fast flow, near hits and c*** teases from ten days out to continue, if were gonna get warm on euro fine . . . . ehh who am i kidding, i'll track a snow shower from 500 miles away and try to drive toward it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 We need a meltdown index for SNE... something like the VIX for the stock market. It spiked before 1/22 and 1/26. Euro Ens have this creeping up as we approach Feb 2-3 and Feb 5-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Can you elaborate? They look like last winter's pattern... i'm confused by the assertion that the euro ensembles handling of the MJO could be leading to this solution. No Feb composite i see for phase 8-1-2 look like this model really. To me it looks like it comes down to the stratosphere rapidly organizing itself over Siberia to north of Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Guys I didn't cancel it, just showing you the differences between the GEFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 They look like last winter's pattern... i'm confused by the assertion that the euro ensembles handling of the MJO could be leading to this solution. No Feb composite i see for phase 8-1-2 look like this model really. To me it looks like it comes down to the stratosphere rapidly organizing itself over Siberia to north of Alaska. P1 from what I can tell can be warm in Feb, although I admit, it may not be a strong correlation. To be honest Ive seen different opinions on P1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 MJO is such voodoo BS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 We need a meltdown index for SNE... something like the VIX for the stock market. It spiked before 1/22 and 1/26. Euro Ens have this creeping up as we approach Feb 2-3 and Feb 5-6 Meltdown VIX will be low right now, people are in disbelief and figure the Euro is wrong. GFS being hugged, but like I said I think the GFS has been going the wrong way and hinting at a bad outcome for several days. GEFS JMHO are going to follow suit eventually. It can and will still snow, but the pattern is breaking down right after this set of systems ending around 2/6 or 2/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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