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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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It seems like its mostly the ARW members that were ran from Kevin's basement that run. But even several of the others do have like 1-2" which is a lot more than any of the other operational guidance. Euro did have some weenie flakes...GFS didn't even have that except the Cape/ACK and Ginx's southern RI beaches.

SREFS Okey dokey, look forward to it.
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Can you elaborate?

 

Strong PAC jet and SE ridge. Just saying what it shows, part of me believes this solution to a point...but It's a very different look than the GEFS so it gives me pause. Even the euro ensembles last night which were still not great looking offered some wintry looks. A compromise would make us happy I think.

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Strong PAC jet and SE ridge. Just saying what it shows, part of me believes this solution to a point...but It's a very different look than the GEFS so it gives me pause. Even the euro ensembles last night which were still not great looking offered some wintry looks. A compromise would make us happy I think.

 

I hope you weren't shocked, JMHO the OP GFS has been kind of telling this tale off and on for days.  We need to make this happen now.

 

2/1 is probably going to be a real deal.   I'd stopped looking at it just out of disinterest...but nice catch by WeatherX on the srefs.

 

18z NAM is coming onto the bus.

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I hope you weren't shocked, JMHO the OP GFS has been kind of telling this tale off and on for days.  We need to make this happen now.

 

2/1 is probably going to be a real deal.   I'd stopped looking at it just out of disinterest...but nice catch by WeatherX on the srefs.

 

18z NAM is coming onto the bus.

 

Meh, 18z NAM pretty much wide right again except some weenie snow for SE MA. Pretty much on par with the global models.

Not impossible to get it further west, but task will be tough in that flow.

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Meh, 18z NAM pretty much wide right again except some weenie snow for SE MA. Pretty much on par with the global models.

Not impossible to get it further west, but task will be tough in that flow.

 

Heh, true and sadly I kind of feel that's the way the next couple roll too.  2/1 still has a shot though just like the other ones.

 

Scott has sent weenies into a screaming panic.

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when the rev says lay the bongs down WRT to a threat, we know nothing is gonna fall.........at least till this hits the Gulf stream ha ha

 

and i wont be praying for this pattern of super fast flow, near hits and c*** teases from ten days out to continue, if were gonna get warm on euro fine . . . . ehh who am i kidding, i'll track a snow shower from 500 miles away and try to drive toward it

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Can you elaborate?

They look like last winter's pattern...

 

i'm confused by the assertion that the euro ensembles handling of the  MJO could be leading to this solution. No Feb composite i see for phase 8-1-2 look like this model really. To me it looks like it comes down to the stratosphere rapidly organizing itself over Siberia to north of Alaska. 

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They look like last winter's pattern...

i'm confused by the assertion that the euro ensembles handling of the MJO could be leading to this solution. No Feb composite i see for phase 8-1-2 look like this model really. To me it looks like it comes down to the stratosphere rapidly organizing itself over Siberia to north of Alaska.

P1 from what I can tell can be warm in Feb, although I admit, it may not be a strong correlation. To be honest Ive seen different opinions on P1.

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We need a meltdown index for SNE... something like the VIX for the stock market.

It spiked before 1/22 and 1/26.

Euro Ens have this creeping up as we approach Feb 2-3 and Feb 5-6

 

Meltdown VIX will be low right now, people are in disbelief and figure the Euro is wrong.  GFS being hugged, but like I said I think the GFS has been going the wrong way and hinting at a bad outcome for several days.  GEFS JMHO are going to follow suit eventually.

It can and will still snow, but the pattern is breaking down right after this set of systems ending around 2/6 or 2/8.

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