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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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But you said it was ok in the other thread.  :pimp:

 

Wishful thinking.  In the end unless we get the 2nd system to do a hara-kiri the first one is going to have some trouble based on the OP GFS which doesn't have a ton of support right now.   GGEM is kind of taking that second one apart, Euro doesn't have much of a system either.   If the follow up system is a dud ala the Euro it'll have room, if not, same old same old.    Looks good at day 5 though!

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Well one of these may have to be sacrificed to get 1 to amplify in time to give us some snow

 

There's actually 3 or so coming along.  I just figure the 2/3 event is the best shot, no sure I buy the northern solution though.  Not seeing what's different/what should make it any different than the previous 3.

 

After that the Euro gives us 4-5 days of dry, cool/cold weather.  One weak system passing through.  Riveting.  Day 10 looks epic.

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There's actually 3 or so coming along.  I just figure the 2/3 event is the best shot, no sure I buy the northern solution though.  Not seeing what's different/what should make it any different than the previous 3.

 

After that the Euro gives us 4-5 days of dry, cool/cold weather.  One weak system passing through.  Riveting.  Day 10 looks epic.

When doesn't it lol...

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There's actually 3 or so coming along. I just figure the 2/3 event is the best shot, no sure I buy the northern solution though. Not seeing what's different/what should make it any different than the previous 3.

After that the Euro gives us 4-5 days of dry, cool/cold weather. One weak system passing through. Riveting. Day 10 looks epic.

How's the friday night deal look? I'm assuming the Euro doesn't do anything with that wave, given the lack of discussion about it.

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I have to say, I don't really get all the doom and gloom here. People have complained about the cold and dry pattern for weeks; now we seem to be transitioning into a period of near-seasonable temps and storm chances, and everyone (well, maybe not everyone) is full of despair. I suspect it's partly a function of the annual "OMG-it's-February-which-means-higher-sun-angles-and-it's-practically-March-oh-well-hopefully-it's-a-good-severe-season" hand-wringing.

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I have to say, I don't really get all the doom and gloom here. People have complained about the cold and dry pattern for weeks; now we seem to be transitioning into a period of near-seasonable temps and storm chances, and everyone (well, maybe not everyone) is full of despair. I suspect it's partly a function of the annual "OMG-it's-February-which-means-higher-sun-angles-and-it's-practically-March-oh-well-hopefully-it's-a-good-severe-season" hand-wringing.

 

 

lol

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I have to say, I don't really get all the doom and gloom here. People have complained about the cold and dry pattern for weeks; now we seem to be transitioning into a period of near-seasonable temps and storm chances, and everyone (well, maybe not everyone) is full of despair. I suspect it's partly a function of the annual "OMG-it's-February-which-means-higher-sun-angles-and-it's-practically-March-oh-well-hopefully-it's-a-good-severe-season" hand-wringing.

i think it is that this season after following in the foot steps of last year's abysmal "winter months" has had more potential, it's always look "good" ten days away, and that still nothing has occured as far as a region wide warning event. 12/29 was closest but those se mass and e coastal mass locale's and merrimack valley got little.  but i think it is just the perpetual looking good in the medium range, and not really being able to get a damn storm, everything seems so progessive unless it cuts thru detroit.

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15z SREFS hit the pipe hard for the Friday clipper.....

 

toss or take?

 

Good grief you aren't kidding. It didn't even occur to me to look since no guidance has much of anything for that system. I did notice at 09z a few SREFs had a solid system, esp for eastern zones...but the mean wasn't that great. 15z SREFs are like solid advisory for most everyone in SNE.

One thing of note though, thus far when the SREFs have been out on their own, they have failed misrerably. The Cape Scraper a week ago it was trying to give like 8" of snow to most of SE MA even almsot back to BOS/PVD.

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Good grief you aren't kidding. It didn't even occur to me to look since no guidance has much of anything for that system. I did notice at 09z a few SREFs had a solid system, esp for eastern zones...but the mean wasn't that great. 15z SREFs are like solid advisory for most everyone in SNE.

One thing of note though, thus far when the SREFs have been out on their own, they have failed misrerably. The Cape Scraper a week ago it was trying to give like 8" of snow to most of SE MA even almsot back to BOS/PVD.

 

Yes, this is the truth (about the failure). I just happened to look at them wrt to the system tomorrow and did a triple take lol at the latter panels.....oh well.

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It seems like its mostly the ARW members that were ran from Kevin's basement that run. But even several of the others do have like 1-2" which is a lot more than any of the other operational guidance. Euro did have some weenie flakes...GFS didn't even have that except the Cape/ACK and Ginx's southern RI beaches.

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It seems like its mostly the ARW members that were ran from Kevin's basement that run. But even several of the others do have like 1-2" which is a lot more than any of the other operational guidance. Euro did have some weenie flakes...GFS didn't even have that except the Cape/ACK and Ginx's southern RI beaches.

 

It's close though.  All three need to be monitored.  GFS and GGEM had that system developing at various times over the last week.

 

NAM probably heading that way at 18z

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