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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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yo Ginx, it's been 6 months and my ankle still hurts.  Was that the case for you too?  I played basketball last night and it feels like crap today.  I'm worried I reinjured something at some point. ugh.

not sure what your maintenance history with it is but I would suggest scar tissue, do you rehab (PT) often i.e. strectching , strengthening, flexibility everyday. seen lots of people ruin surgeries by not doing the rehab long term

 

not saying go to PT everyday, get the exercises and do them on your own - my.02

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Yep...its looked that way for a while. More room for that one to operate. GFS looks pretty nice.

 

 

Yeah, Get the one on the 3rd out of the way, It looks like crap right now anyways, The one on the 6th looks to have some legs and is sitting in a good spot this far out

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A little squashed on the GFS verbatim for 2/6...but not a bad look at all. We def want that vortmax going under us in a more compact fashion like that unlike the Euro which has a lot of vorticity to the NW before everything finally tries to go underneath us but by then its a bit late.

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A little squashed on the GFS verbatim for 2/6...but not a bad look at all. We def want that vortmax going under us in a more compact fashion like that unlike the Euro which has a lot of vorticity to the NW before everything finally tries to go underneath us but by then its a bit late.

 

Let's hope. 

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It would be more fitting if it was 2/2

2/2 does the same basic thing. It will likely be a scraper. 2/6 was originally further NW and is now getting shunted se each run. If that doesn't happen it'll be a cutter instead. Fast forward to the next two systems both look warm. Not buying the major amplification on. 2/6, models continually do this days 6-8 and we keep biting. The pattern is changing by then so who knows but it's hard to look at the gfs and see a bunch of positives IMHO. But again I don't see all this room for amplification on 2/6 yet. I see a ridge out west that is okay, not much blocking to our ne and a flow that will feature the same ese movement of the overall trough as its trying to dig. (Lack of blocking). May change in later guidance as that system seems to be the turnover point.

The periods will shorten lets hope the song doesn't remain the same.

How does next winter look?

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Unlike messenger I see plenty of potential in the upcoming pattern, the vorts and trough axis looks more favorable for something to break our way.

 

Time will tell, and it's definitely possible that we miss on all of them but it looks a lot more favorable than the most recent cold stretch IMO.

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The 2/5 event shares similarities to the recent friday event. Though some key differences exist in that 1) the arctic airmass preceding the 2/5 potential is not as strong as last week's, 2) the PV is in the process of retreating north (giving way to the warm-up heading into the 11-15 day)...Both of these points leave room for this thing to amplify better than the Friday event, though that can turn into a delicate situation if it comes too north. Will pointed out the lack of a -NAO which adds to this risk also.

 

Furthermore, we will not get a great read on how progressive the pacific ends up and how the clipper energy will eject (how strong) out of the vortex in the gulf of alaska, until the short term.. it's as good a threat as any we've had though.
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Gfs says come back 1 week.

To me on the gfs the 3rd is fading. Same old ese slide to the entire structure as it tries to dig. Ridge is okay but no blocking isn't helping amplification. As modeled by the gfs I think the 3 rd will fade as it approaches.

 

But you said it was ok in the other thread.  :pimp:

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