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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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GFS looks like a 200 post Messenger Special for 2/3....tries to get going, but really a bit too late except for SE MA. Does give the obligatory 1" to the rest of the region except far western areas. Maybe 1-3 for the Cape.

 

The 2/3 event I think is a distinct possibility if and only if the weak disturbance at 90 hours does not explode off the Delmarva, a similar disturbance last week that brought some light snow to DCA and then rapidly exploded is what I think ruined the phasing of the 2 disturbances a couple of days later by flattening the flow.  The models actually caught that idea pretty well at days 5-6, most runs that didn't have the big storm showed the previous wave blowing up.  I think this time we may stand a better chance at the first system not deepening as the 500mb setup is not as conducive as last time.

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78 anniversary special maybe

 

 

The 2/6 system is where we are really missing the -NAO....like Feb '78. That would almost certianly be a very nice Miller B setup if we had one...but its tougher without it. It could end up as a stronger primary well NW trying to redevelop at the last second. With a nice little block in the Davis Straight, we'd probably have that whole thing pushed south with a big time coastal redeveloping off the Delmarva or something.

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The 2/6 system is where we are really missing the -NAO....like Feb '78. That would almost certianly be a very nice Miller B setup if we had one...but its tougher without it. It could end up as a stronger primary well NW trying to redevelop at the last second. With a nice little block in the Davis Straight, we'd probably have that whole thing pushed south with a big time coastal redeveloping off the Delmarva or something.

That nao the weeklies have been predicting all winter?

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GFS looks like a 200 post Messenger Special for 2/3....tries to get going, but really a bit too late except for SE MA. Does give the obligatory 1" to the rest of the region except far western areas. Maybe 1-3 for the Cape.

You're already ahead of me by about 35 posts on both 2/3 and 2/6. Two potentially epic events for this winter.

1-3" would make it a top 2 or 3 event down here so I guess a few of the red taggers would finally be right about all that potential we keep hearing about. ;)

Congrats on the engagement, I figured it was either that or you guys were adopting ct.

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You're already ahead of me by about 35 posts on both 2/3 and 2/6. Two potentially epic events for this winter.

1-3" would make it a top 2 or 3 event down here so I guess a few of the red taggers would finally be right about all that potential we keep hearing about. ;)

Congrats on the engagement, I figured it was either that or you guys were adopting ct.

i think i got about an inch total tonite, esp after that 10 min moderate snow shower of huge fluffy dentrites moved thru around midnite. echos over me now, must be some frz dr /rain . 28f or so fun times on road in am

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Euro is pretty awful for both events....we'll hope its wrong. Which this season, hasn't been much of a pipe dream at least.

 

The 2/6 event isn't that bad, but its obsessed with developing the low really hard to the northwest before the secondary gets going despite the 5H trough looking pretty good. Basically another version of snake eyes this winter in a decent looking setup. But again, at least the Euro has been pretty mediocre in the medium range this year.

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i think i got about an inch total tonite, esp after that 10 min moderate snow shower of huge fluffy dentrites moved thru around midnite. echos over me now, must be some frz dr /rain . 28f or so fun times on road in am

32.2 here melting now. Sick both physically and after looking at 5-6 more days or snooze in the models.

The only great news is Will, the range of ages and life's moments here is great. Grandparents to grandkids and everything in between. Congrats Will.

As always this winter day 7 looks fantastic

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Euro is pretty awful for both events....we'll hope its wrong. Which this season, hasn't been much of a pipe dream at least.

 

The 2/6 event isn't that bad, but its obsessed with developing the low really hard to the northwest before the secondary gets going despite the 5H trough looking pretty good. Basically another version of snake eyes this winter in a decent looking setup. But again, at least the Euro has been pretty mediocre in the medium range this year.

too much ridging to the northeast?

 

that's a monster Atlantic ridge. 

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Euro is pretty awful for both events....we'll hope its wrong. Which this season, hasn't been much of a pipe dream at least.

The 2/6 event isn't that bad, but its obsessed with developing the low really hard to the northwest before the secondary gets going despite the 5H trough looking pretty good. Basically another version of snake eyes this winter in a decent looking setup. But again, at least the Euro has been pretty mediocre in the medium range this year.

Euro looks like its probably just messed up on 2/6. Note how it kind of looks like the gfs as it evolves? Almost like its missing some pieces. I think the gfs stronger primary is more likely with either it redeveloping under us or not. Can't see a weird euro weak setup they develops over us that ends up looking like an east coast front. Hopefully someone in euro land kept the changelog for the springs changes so they can undo

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Euro looks like its probably just messed up on 2/6. Note how it kind of looks like the gfs as it evolves? Almost like its missing some pieces. I think the gfs stronger primary is more likely with either it redeveloping under us or not. Can't see a weird euro weak setup they develops over us that ends up looking like an east coast front. Hopefully someone in euro land kept the changelog for the springs changes so they can undo

 

 

2/6 has its problems...but there will likely be a system in there that gives us snow. I suppose it could develop really hard to the NW ad actually flip us to rain too. But we are sorely needing a NAO block in that setup. It has some pretty nice components except that.

 

 

The Euro look overall is pretty ugly though IMHO. I like the GFS/GEFS look a lot better.

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2/6 has its problems...but there will likely be a system in there that gives us snow. I suppose it could develop really hard to the NW ad actually flip us to rain too. But we are sorely needing a NAO block in that setup. It has some pretty nice components except that.

 

 

The Euro look overall is pretty ugly though IMHO. I like the GFS/GEFS look a lot better.

 

KURO will not be pleased with that statement from KORH ;)

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2/6 has its problems...but there will likely be a system in there that gives us snow. I suppose it could develop really hard to the NW ad actually flip us to rain too. But we are sorely needing a NAO block in that setup. It has some pretty nice components except that.

 

 

The Euro look overall is pretty ugly though IMHO. I like the GFS/GEFS look a lot better.

 

Let's hope that the GFS is on to something. Its' accuracy is far better than the EURO at Medium Range. I'm hoping we can get several minor events to amount up to 10" for February.

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too much ridging to the northeast?

 

that's a monster Atlantic ridge. 

 

 

The PV being due east of Hudson Bay is not very good looking. Its more like a Central Atlantic ridge centered due west of Portugal. That's typically a +NAO look..

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Let's hope that the GFS is on to something. Its' accuracy is far better than the EURO at Medium Range. I'm hoping we can get several minor events to amount up to 10" for February.

 

 

No it isn't...the Euro blows the GFS doors off in the medium range usually...but this winter its been almost 50/50. So that gives some hope the GFS is correct.

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Sometimes it's hard to believe ..We went from everyone and I mean everyone feeling good about a pattern change,,felling great about Feb with cold and snow for weeks..and suddenly you wake up one morning in late Jan and it's all taken away.

 

Unreal how things changed in 24 hours. Glad we got the snow that we did earlier this winter 

 

Even Noyes the biggest wx weenie of all has thrown in the towel

 

 

Tonight's 8-14 Day Forecast I aired on @NECN shows arctic cold retreating Feb 5-11: http://mnoy.es/Wy9b6w 

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Sometimes it's hard to believe ..We went from everyone and I mean everyone feeling good about a pattern change,,felling great about Feb with cold and snow for weeks..and suddenly you wake up one morning in late Jan and it's all taken away.

Unreal how things changed in 24 hours. Glad we got the snow that we did earlier this winter

Even Noyes the biggest wx weenie of all has thrown in the towel

t Noyes@MattNoyesNECN

Tonight's 8-14 Day Forecast I aired on @NECN shows arctic cold retreating Feb 5-11: http://mnoy.es/Wy9b6w

Not everyone
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