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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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Hey Will, remember this:

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34743-winter-2012-2013/page-67#entry1763628

 

I suppose these strat analogs weren't bad sensible weather-wise either. Womp...

 

 

Lol...unfortunately Dec '98 and this past Dec weren't that dissimilar. Jan '99 wasn't cold out west like this January, but it was similar with warmth overall in the east but not without its arctic shots intertwined.

 

I hope Feb 2013 acts a lot more like Feb '93 and not Feb '99. Though March '99 was far from Morch...that was a wintry March.

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so have we lost blocking for Feb?

 

Strat is rapidly cooling again.

 

 

I don't see a lot of blocking in Feb. However, I don't think it looks warm at all in the east. We keep a +PNA pattern for the most part and somewhat of a N ATL ridge which is a colder pattern for the east. GEFS actually showed a split flow +PNA pattern which would be very good for the east for snow chances, but that was out at 300+ hours. 

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Lol...unfortunately Dec '98 and this past Dec weren't that dissimilar. Jan '99 wasn't cold out west like this January, but it was similar with warmth overall in the east but not without its arctic shots intertwined.

 

I hope Feb 2013 acts a lot more like Feb '93 and not Feb '99. Though March '99 was far from Morch...that was a wintry March.

 

BTW I'm glad to hear about you and Megan. I'm reasonably optimistic about the remainder of winter.

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Well the ensembles sort of have an east based look. The weeklies tried to show some blocking up west of the Davis Straits, but it appears the better blocking was and will be out west and by AK.

 

weird...I thought for sure we would get good locking on the atlantic side this winter.  It's been anemic.  Well let's see how we can do.

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You've gotten buried compared to most the last few weeks.  We're starting to hear talk of the clear back end to all of this and we're still waiting for it ot really kick off....can see why people are bummed TBH.

we can always see a back end to winter though. as far as i know, that happens every year. 

 

i don't know...the vibe just seems like people are expecting a 10 day stretch of 50F. the "torch" is like a 24 hour interlude for a good chunk of SNE and 36 hours for the rest of us. 

 

no big deal, imo. 

 

i'll stick with BOS reaching climo. 

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weird...I thought for sure we would get good locking on the atlantic side this winter.  It's been anemic.  Well let's see how we can do.

 

 

Weeklies have been bullish on very good NAO blocking developing in Feb...but they've done this before where it never materializes. So I'd be skptical at the moment.

 

Still, a N ATL ridge or an east based block can be just fine with a +PNA. This is what happened in Feb 2003, Feb 1967, and Feb 2005. Each had their own nuances, but they all had some sort of a ridge out west (the '67 ridge was more suppresed) and either a N ATL ridge or an east based block. None of those had big blocking in the Arctic region.

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we can always see a back end to winter though. as far as i know, that happens every year. 

 

i don't know...the vibe just seems like people are expecting a 10 day stretch of 50F. the "torch" is like a 24 hour interlude for a good chunk of SNE and 36 hours for the rest of us. 

 

no big deal, imo. 

 

i'll stick with BOS reaching climo. 

 

Patience is never a virtue around here, people just want to see results.  Seems the calendar flipping has a lot to do with it too.  It's a mental thing.

 

The stark reality of this winter is obvious in my travels into Maine last weekend and western NH this weekend.  To look west 30-50 miles from Sunapee and really see very little snow aside of manmade on the resorts and mostly a sea of brown was a big WOW.   Let's hope this changes soon.

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so have we lost blocking for Feb?

 

Strat is rapidly cooling again.

 

This year's stratospheric setup hasn't been like last year in the sense that we watch a clean top to bottom propagation (and to be honest, I'd much prefer years like the current one over warmings like last year). We had an immediate response already mid Jan and a secondary response is becoming increasingly probable during the second week of Feb:

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.ao.cdas.gif

 

Currently, a huge wave breaker in the lower-mid stratosphere and troposphere (very coupled) has occurred from Siberia into the North Pole. The amount of ozone flux with it is very impressive. The upper levels cooling typically occurs but they don't always propagate down for a Morch, but I can understand the fear.

 

Finally, the remnant lower strat vortex still ongoing is located in the N Atlantic-Europe but its momentum flux downward is weak (the SSW weakened the vortex). This weakened PV is being modeled to head toward Europe, possibly aiding in a ridge in the N. Atlantic second week of Feb.

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Go here: http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php

 

Check out 70 hpa etc. and watch first the monster PV displacement we had mid-month and now a giant anticyclone/warming coming from Siberia. Meanwhile, in the troposphere, we have had a few noteworthy cyclonic wave breakers across the N PAC. This is a giant mess right now.

 

In the Tropical forcing department, we have two areas of forcing (west to central pac [RW / supercluster induced Oswald led to Queensland flooding] and Africa sectors) that are also causing headaches.

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Pretty epic s/w coming down on the evening of the 31st on the GFS. 

 

EDIT: Neither that nor the next one does much, little light snow on the south coast from the first one, second one a little more extensive but not much room for either to develop in time.  Both have "potential" like most everything else this winter if things changed a bit on the GFS.

 

The difference between this winter and the great winters is in the great winters both would find the spacing to develop enough to toss down 2-4/3-6 or 4-8...as 2013 would have it both will like find a way to toss down that many flakes!  Kidding.

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dusting.

 

Same type of pattern JMHO in terms of sensible weather.   One of these systems will find a way to develop, law of averages we cannot have this bad of luck.  Hoping it's one of the two s/ws starting on the 1st - 3rd.

 

By day 8 we're looking at 492 dm thicknesses on the border again.  Probably not epic for a snow pattern

 

Same WNW to ESE skijump pattern of lows launching themselves into the abyss on the OP GFS.  Nice system in the SW at day 8, maybe if we get lucky that can turn into a cutter. j/k

 

We have some mets saying it's over by about 2/14....well if it hasn't really started at Day 8...not leaving us tons of time.  Hopefully some/all are wrong.

 

EDIT, right after the resolution drop the OP GFS looks great.

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