Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 Rev asked for this yesterday...here you go dude and false color is better You need to go to the download image page first, nice yellow though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 you could also try resizing before posting. save us all from those huge images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The insult would be a winter w/o any big storms followed by raw, wet April Nor'Easters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 you could also try resizing before posting. save us all from those huge images. well if I could still post saved images I could, but someone screwed that up last time I tried. I'll try again then delete the others if it works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 28, 2013 Author Share Posted January 28, 2013 like this chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I like the FU bare ground from my area on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 The GEFS has higher than normal heights across the entire CONUS beyond day 11. Does the EC ensemble have similiar? It doesn't look torchy or anything..just different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 this place seems quite depressed today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Hey Will, remember this: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34743-winter-2012-2013/page-67#entry1763628 I suppose these strat analogs weren't bad sensible weather-wise either. Womp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Hey Will, remember this: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34743-winter-2012-2013/page-67#entry1763628 I suppose these strat analogs weren't bad sensible weather-wise either. Womp... Lol...unfortunately Dec '98 and this past Dec weren't that dissimilar. Jan '99 wasn't cold out west like this January, but it was similar with warmth overall in the east but not without its arctic shots intertwined. I hope Feb 2013 acts a lot more like Feb '93 and not Feb '99. Though March '99 was far from Morch...that was a wintry March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 this place seems quite depressed today. I think the next few weeks hold some promise, but I guess people will only believe it when the models show something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 so have we lost blocking for Feb? Strat is rapidly cooling again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 so have we lost blocking for Feb? Strat is rapidly cooling again. Well the ensembles sort of have an east based look. The weeklies tried to show some blocking up west of the Davis Straits, but it appears the better blocking was and will be out west and by AK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 this place seems quite depressed today. You've gotten buried compared to most the last few weeks. We're starting to hear talk of the clear back end to all of this and we're still waiting for it ot really kick off....can see why people are bummed TBH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 so have we lost blocking for Feb? Strat is rapidly cooling again. I don't see a lot of blocking in Feb. However, I don't think it looks warm at all in the east. We keep a +PNA pattern for the most part and somewhat of a N ATL ridge which is a colder pattern for the east. GEFS actually showed a split flow +PNA pattern which would be very good for the east for snow chances, but that was out at 300+ hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Lol...unfortunately Dec '98 and this past Dec weren't that dissimilar. Jan '99 wasn't cold out west like this January, but it was similar with warmth overall in the east but not without its arctic shots intertwined. I hope Feb 2013 acts a lot more like Feb '93 and not Feb '99. Though March '99 was far from Morch...that was a wintry March. BTW I'm glad to hear about you and Megan. I'm reasonably optimistic about the remainder of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 like this chris Looking at that image and this Webcam image from the Quabin makes me think that the open water is on the verge of icing over: http://www.mwra.com/qcam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Well the ensembles sort of have an east based look. The weeklies tried to show some blocking up west of the Davis Straits, but it appears the better blocking was and will be out west and by AK. weird...I thought for sure we would get good locking on the atlantic side this winter. It's been anemic. Well let's see how we can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 You've gotten buried compared to most the last few weeks. We're starting to hear talk of the clear back end to all of this and we're still waiting for it ot really kick off....can see why people are bummed TBH. we can always see a back end to winter though. as far as i know, that happens every year. i don't know...the vibe just seems like people are expecting a 10 day stretch of 50F. the "torch" is like a 24 hour interlude for a good chunk of SNE and 36 hours for the rest of us. no big deal, imo. i'll stick with BOS reaching climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 weird...I thought for sure we would get good locking on the atlantic side this winter. It's been anemic. Well let's see how we can do. Weeklies have been bullish on very good NAO blocking developing in Feb...but they've done this before where it never materializes. So I'd be skptical at the moment. Still, a N ATL ridge or an east based block can be just fine with a +PNA. This is what happened in Feb 2003, Feb 1967, and Feb 2005. Each had their own nuances, but they all had some sort of a ridge out west (the '67 ridge was more suppresed) and either a N ATL ridge or an east based block. None of those had big blocking in the Arctic region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 we can always see a back end to winter though. as far as i know, that happens every year. i don't know...the vibe just seems like people are expecting a 10 day stretch of 50F. the "torch" is like a 24 hour interlude for a good chunk of SNE and 36 hours for the rest of us. no big deal, imo. i'll stick with BOS reaching climo. Patience is never a virtue around here, people just want to see results. Seems the calendar flipping has a lot to do with it too. It's a mental thing. The stark reality of this winter is obvious in my travels into Maine last weekend and western NH this weekend. To look west 30-50 miles from Sunapee and really see very little snow aside of manmade on the resorts and mostly a sea of brown was a big WOW. Let's hope this changes soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 so have we lost blocking for Feb? Strat is rapidly cooling again. This year's stratospheric setup hasn't been like last year in the sense that we watch a clean top to bottom propagation (and to be honest, I'd much prefer years like the current one over warmings like last year). We had an immediate response already mid Jan and a secondary response is becoming increasingly probable during the second week of Feb: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/hgt.ao.cdas.gif Currently, a huge wave breaker in the lower-mid stratosphere and troposphere (very coupled) has occurred from Siberia into the North Pole. The amount of ozone flux with it is very impressive. The upper levels cooling typically occurs but they don't always propagate down for a Morch, but I can understand the fear. Finally, the remnant lower strat vortex still ongoing is located in the N Atlantic-Europe but its momentum flux downward is weak (the SSW weakened the vortex). This weakened PV is being modeled to head toward Europe, possibly aiding in a ridge in the N. Atlantic second week of Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Go here: http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php Check out 70 hpa etc. and watch first the monster PV displacement we had mid-month and now a giant anticyclone/warming coming from Siberia. Meanwhile, in the troposphere, we have had a few noteworthy cyclonic wave breakers across the N PAC. This is a giant mess right now. In the Tropical forcing department, we have two areas of forcing (west to central pac [RW / supercluster induced Oswald led to Queensland flooding] and Africa sectors) that are also causing headaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 I think the next few weeks hold some promise, but I guess people will only believe it when the models show something. At this point, I won't believe any model solution till within 3 days. So until than, carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 Pretty epic s/w coming down on the evening of the 31st on the GFS. EDIT: Neither that nor the next one does much, little light snow on the south coast from the first one, second one a little more extensive but not much room for either to develop in time. Both have "potential" like most everything else this winter if things changed a bit on the GFS. The difference between this winter and the great winters is in the great winters both would find the spacing to develop enough to toss down 2-4/3-6 or 4-8...as 2013 would have it both will like find a way to toss down that many flakes! Kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 So we thinking Sunday is next snow event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 So we thinking Sunday is next snow event? dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 dusting. Same type of pattern JMHO in terms of sensible weather. One of these systems will find a way to develop, law of averages we cannot have this bad of luck. Hoping it's one of the two s/ws starting on the 1st - 3rd. By day 8 we're looking at 492 dm thicknesses on the border again. Probably not epic for a snow pattern Same WNW to ESE skijump pattern of lows launching themselves into the abyss on the OP GFS. Nice system in the SW at day 8, maybe if we get lucky that can turn into a cutter. j/k We have some mets saying it's over by about 2/14....well if it hasn't really started at Day 8...not leaving us tons of time. Hopefully some/all are wrong. EDIT, right after the resolution drop the OP GFS looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 so have we lost blocking for Feb? Strat is rapidly cooling again. we never had blocking, tough to loose it when you never had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 28, 2013 Share Posted January 28, 2013 It would be nice to get something other than a 1008 MB low off the coast. Been tough for amplification in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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