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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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It keeps us fairly chilly but the central US doesn't get that much arctic air. I actually prefer the pattern on the Euro ensembles today because it would probably allow for more storm chances.

 

We have this discussion every warm season (when seasonal forecasts for winter start emerging) but why folks really enjoy arctic air and really cold blasts is beyond me.  This past period just reinforced my stance that give me precipitation anytime over temperatures and we can take our chances.  Everyone gets so amped up over arctic blasts and going into the freezer, but 0F to +2F departures is pretty much ideal (IMO) for Dec/Jan/Feb... then we can do -2F in Nov/Mar, haha. 

 

I could see if you lived down in NJ/MD/VA etc why arctic blasts would be required for snow, but here in New England, we just go cold and dry... I know that's not always a rule (of course nothing is in winter), but give me a jet stream nearby rather than one that's down in the Carolina's. 

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I really like the look of that event, too. It could definitely turn into something larger... that and the tracks of the mid/upper and surface low are damn near perfect for upslope snows, though it does look short duration.

Upslope coupled with synoptic would be nice for a change of pace.

Then there's another one right after it.

I really think this is a great clipper pattern setting up....not sure why so many said it didn't look that good earlier, unless that was more of a mid-Atlantic/SNE vibe with the ECM showing them north of the pike earlier.

90% of the posters in ne probably live south of vt/nh/me

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Well if it looks bad for SNE, then most here won't like it and say it looks bad since the majority in this forum are SNE vs NNE.

 

That said, I didn't think the pattern looked bad for any part of NE. Maybe the furtherst south or southwest might have the most trouble with clippers or late redevelopers. But overall we have our shots.

 

Yeah I was just surprised folks were hanging hats on ECMWF modeled track from the Great Lakes to NNE at that lead time.  I'm fairly certain those will end up south of there, and should be a good clipper pattern for everyone in New England.  Sure one might go south and then one might go north, but to see 3 short-waves lined up at 3-day intervals over the next 10-14 days is a pretty good sign...regardless of where models track them right now.

 

That sort of Miller B pattern usually works out quite nicely in SNE and up the coast into NNE.  If anyone gets screwed in a Miller B pattern its this area of NW New England, lol.  Even if they aren't big storms, I think most would immediately sign up for a couple 2-6 inch type events. 

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Yeah I was just surprised folks were hanging hats on ECMWF modeled track from the Great Lakes to NNE at that lead time.  I'm fairly certain those will end up south of there, and should be a good clipper pattern for everyone in New England.  Sure one might go south and then one might go north, but to see 3 short-waves lined up at 3-day intervals over the next 10-14 days is a pretty good sign...regardless of where models track them right now.

 

That sort of Miller B pattern usually works out quite nicely in SNE and up the coast into NNE.  If anyone gets screwed in a Miller B pattern its this area of NW New England, lol.  Even if they aren't big storms, I think most would immediately sign up for a couple 2-6 inch type events. 

 

 

 

Yeah I think one of them will work out. Even the uglier ones still give an inch or two. I know people are dying for a larger event, but as long as its going to be colder, I'll take the 1-3" events. I do think we'll have some juicier storms start to impact the region as the pattenr relaxes a bit...we'll just hope we stay on the cold side.

 

And as you mentioned, there's always the chance we can try to Miller-B one of these shortwaves.

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90% of the posters in ne probably live south of vt/nh/me

 

Yeah but synoptically it did not look bad for SNE... that was the point.  It looks like a solid clipper pattern.  The 18z GFS and 12z GFS are not that different at all, the 18z just happened to print out a couple panels of 0.1" QPF and looked to redevelop like 25 miles further SE.

 

We have a couple shortwaves moving across New England after this cutter...I wouldn't be down about that no matter where you are.  The EURO hasn't exactly been killing that time frame lately anyway.   

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Yeah I think one of them will work out. Even the uglier ones still give an inch or two. I know people are dying for a larger event, but as long as its going to be colder, I'll take the 1-3" events. I do think we'll have some juicier storms start to impact the region as the pattenr relaxes a bit...we'll just hope we stay on the cold side.

 

And as you mentioned, there's always the chance we can try to Miller-B one of these shortwaves.

 

Get something like this to dig a bit more and can probably get that Miller B...not a monster but something more than 1-3".

 

gfs_namer_165_500_vort_ht.gif

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We have this discussion every warm season (when seasonal forecasts for winter start emerging) but why folks really enjoy arctic air and really cold blasts is beyond me. This past period just reinforced my stance that give me precipitation anytime over temperatures and we can take our chances. Everyone gets so amped up over arctic blasts and going into the freezer, but 0F to +2F departures is pretty much ideal (IMO) for Dec/Jan/Feb... then we can do -2F in Nov/Mar, haha.

I could see if you lived down in NJ/MD/VA etc why arctic blasts would be required for snow, but here in New England, we just go cold and dry... I know that's not always a rule (of course nothing is in winter), but give me a jet stream nearby rather than one that's down in the Carolina's.

From the top of sunapee I could see from mt snow to killington and even mrg. Amazing how little snow is up there. Stunning really.

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From the top of sunapee I could see from mt snow to killington and even mrg. Amazing how little snow is up there. Stunning really.

 

Same in the Lakes region too. Anywhere from 2 to maybe 4 or 5" depending on shading. Difference there is that they keep the snow..lol.

 

This next event should be a good 2-3 there and probably a muted or at least brief torch before more chances. This pattern coming up will be waaaayyyy better for CNE and NNE.

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Same in the Lakes region too. Anywhere from 2 to maybe 4 or 5" depending on shading. Difference there is that they keep the snow..lol.

 

This next event should be a good 2-3 there and probably a muted or at least brief torch before more chances. This pattern coming up will be waaaayyyy better for CNE and NNE.

 

 

We shall see going forward, For the most part, This season so far has underperformed up here

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Nice little d7 clipper on the euro tracking across SNE. Then it strengthens a bit in the GOM. Then another one is fast on its heals. It'd be nice to get these clippers far enough south.

Can't remember the last time we had a clipper. They seem to show up periodically in the long-range modeling and then vanish. I've always been a fan; fewer things to go wrong, rarely any p-type issues, and here on the ME coast we occasionally benefit from the late redevelopers as they scoot off the coast.

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I think there is this latent panic among the community this morning because of what happened last year (promising signs with different things only to turn out to mean basically nothing for Feb). But let's be realistic: we've seen some crappy modeled solutions at this point for February in year's past. This year we have a cold air source and a +PNA tendency. It's not all that bad.

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I think there is this latent panic among the community this morning because of what happened last year (promising signs with different things only to turn out to mean basically nothing for Feb). But let's be realistic: we've seen some crappy modeled solutions at this point for February in year's past. This year we have a cold air source and a +PNA tendency. It's not all that bad.

Yea seems once bitten twice shy is prevalent.Winters with this amount of cold always ready to be tapped can produce. Fears of a snowless month seem very unrealistic. I liked our chances last week, did not pan out, I like our chances going forward even more. Maybe we wiff but would be a total case of just plane dumb bad luck.

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Yea seems once bitten twice shy is prevalent.Winters with this amount of cold always ready to be tapped can produce. Fears of a snowless month seem very unrealistic. I liked our chances last week, did not pan out, I like our chances going forward even more. Maybe we wiff but would be a total case of just plane dumb bad luck.

 

I agree with this. Where the heck is Tip with a teleconnections post honing in on Feb 5-10? I know it's a rather modest NAO dip but the idea of a thumb ridge into the N. Atlantic induced by the clippers seems realistic. Perhaps we "Heath A" it then to some degree as we descend somewhat...

 

Also, I can't believe I'm going to say this but the GFS is kicking the EC's ass in the medium range for the CONUS. Of course, I'm basing this off of how they handled the Wednesday trough last week, so non-scientific admittedly.

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I agree with this. Where the heck is Tip with a teleconnections post honing in on Feb 5-10? I know it's a rather modest NAO dip but the idea of a thumb ridge into the N. Atlantic induced by the clippers seems realistic. Perhaps we "Heath A" it then to some degree as we descend somewhat...

 

Also, I can't believe I'm going to say this but the GFS is kicking the EC's ass in the medium range for the CONUS. Of course, I'm basing this off of how they handled the Wednesday trough last week, so non-scientific admittedly.

 

Yeah I agree about the GFS. I can't say anything more hemispherically...but locally...it's done well in the 5 day range or so. Lets not forget the Euro KU it showed for SNE last week.

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I agree with this. Where the heck is Tip with a teleconnections post honing in on Feb 5-10? I know it's a rather modest NAO dip but the idea of a thumb ridge into the N. Atlantic induced by the clippers seems realistic. Perhaps we "Heath A" it then to some degree as we descend somewhat...

 

Also, I can't believe I'm going to say this but the GFS is kicking the EC's ass in the medium range for the CONUS. Of course, I'm basing this off of how they handled the Wednesday trough last week, so non-scientific admittedly.

no you are correct, Euro has won the 5h wars but sensible weather GFS has led the way for the 5-10 period. They tweaked the Euro I believe last spring, analogous to some software engineer deciding to put a Turbo Booster monitor on a Lamborghini not understanding the ramifications of the feedback on performance. Euro seems better under stable predictable situations, (Sandy) but fast flow seems the GFS does better JMHO

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Yeah I agree about the GFS. I can't say anything more hemispherically...but locally...it's done well in the 5 day range or so. Lets not forget the Euro KU it showed for SNE last week.

 

Now I'm not sure how the next couple of weeks are going to work out; but in the old days, the ECMWF would do much better with split flow patterns than the GFS. So, I'm very interested to see how the GFS does here with this new pattern. This week doesn't count because of the full-latitude nature to the flow.

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Now I'm not sure how the next couple of weeks are going to work out; but in the old days, the ECMWF would do much better with split flow patterns than the GFS. So, I'm very interested to see how the GFS does here with this new pattern. This week doesn't count because of the full-latitude nature to the flow.

 

We've had some nice springs in the last 5 years. I think a crappy Spring sooner or later will visit.

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We've had some nice springs in the last 5 years. I think a crappy Spring sooner or later will visit.

 

Yeah and for good reasons we've rehashed over and over. This year, so far, you can appreciate the forecasts for a warm March / spring as we cycle through what seems to be the same old thing again (recovering stratosphere after mid-winter SSW, tropical forcing/ENSO, PDO, etc).

 

But many are assuming a propagating MJO and downwelling strat signal. But our stratospheric disturbances have been bottom-up with smaller time scales and the MJO won't propagate continuously. Also, if we can tilt +GLAAM again sometime in the spring, perhaps things won't be so pretty for us. As usual, it is the exact timing of the GLAAM spike that matters.

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Yeah and for good reasons we've rehashed over and over. This year, so far, you can appreciate the forecasts for a warm March / spring as we cycle through what seems to be the same old thing again (recovering stratosphere after mid-winter SSW, tropical forcing/ENSO, PDO, etc).

 

But many are assuming a propagating MJO and downwelling strat signal. But our stratospheric disturbances have been bottom-up with smaller time scales and the MJO won't propagate continuously. Also, if we can tilt +GLAAM again sometime in the spring, perhaps things won't be so pretty for us. As usual, it is the exact timing of the GLAAM spike that matters.

 

Well senior energy Met CTblizz thinks March is no longer a winter month anymore so I'm not sure your logic can compare to his. 

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