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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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Ridiculous that Kevin is ending winter that early based on what? The euro weeklies bring the MJO to the right side late but every other set of guidance deeps it left albeit only out 16 days. Remember when weeklies had this week we are in now a torch and some mets ended winter for a run?

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Leave it to the Euro to fook us now with a 2 day torch and slower fropa after never milding us and having a quick fropa. Box says the Ens are different and quicker, so we;ll toss that crappy overnite run

Ens are definitely quicker with the polar front. There's a second arctic front that lags behind. Wed is the day to close the shades. Could be one of those days with many 50s again.

The ens blow up the 2/3-4 threat offshore. The pattern relaxes a bit toward the end of the run, but 2/6 looks somewhat interesting too.

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Ens are definitely quicker with the polar front. There's a second arctic front that lags behind. Wed is the day to close the shades. Could be one of those days with many 50s again.

The ens blow up the 2/3-4 threat offshore. The pattern relaxes a bit toward the end of the run, but 2/6 looks somewhat interesting too.

Well I didn't have many 50's last time so hopefully can avoid again. If its lower dews and 40's we can handle that. I won't be surprised if models back off on the surge north of warmth somewhat as we close in.
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Nobody is saying it ends early, I even said the other dy feb 14 seems early. Just saying models are getting the Pacifix jet more active. Can be good and bad.

I think there are growing signs that by about the 9th or 10th we are breaking down this current pattern. Good riddance. Ill take my chances with something else and an abundance of deep cold over us and to our north. That should at least provide chances during the transition period in the feb 8-20 time period.

In the meantime the euro produces zero snow outside of Monday for the next ten days. We get milded up with the cutter, watch 1 or 2 waves develop and miss after the front, one along and one well after and then cross our fingers for the 2/3 to 2/6 period.

What is it specifically that everyone is seeing that brings us from the pattern we have to one that is cold AND snowy when the caldenar flips?

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The sites that are truly getting screwed are just interior from the true coastal plain. Those areas missed out on the first part of the year when climo says they should be getting snow, BOS and other coastal locations don't really start their snow season until late December anyway. So relative to climo here on out, CON for instance needs to do better than climo to achieve a better than bottom 30 snowfall season whereas BOS can be right down the middle.

 

this

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