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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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Heather Archie fetish?

 

 

She beautiful...  

 

j/k - yeah, I don't know if it would qualify this time, but on a purely conceptual level, her research to me ...kind of was like using statistical science to point out common sense.  Intuitively, if you are in a static temperature and thermodynamic mode in your local region (synoptic scale) and then perturbed that domain space by incurring a new air mass, well ... duh, things are going to happen. 

 

It's really not complicated.  Though the research she did is hugely needed because people/science want/need proof, proof, proof.   Anyway, that's the simple model.  A full latitude trough migration and bomb up into eastern Canada might just shake thing up enough to introduce a phase change - and subsequently activity.  

 

Or, maybe something like at GGEMer can happen.   Nice long duration event that would go a long way toward adjusting locale's seasonal snowfall totals, upward, without having to suffer all the growing pains.   we'll see.   

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That's the 00z run.

 

 

Though the 12z run still ends up working out.

 

Eh, that's real ugly and weird ...as in, not really looking.    It's got wave space interference galore through every interval and ends up with a low that seems more like a default pivot point while the run figures out how to clean up its huge mess aloft.    

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Eh, that's real ugly and weird ...as in, not really looking.    It's got wave space interference galore through every interval and ends up with a low that seems more like a default pivot point while the run figures out how to clean up its huge mess aloft.    

 

 

I wasn't counting on the GGEM solution FYI.

 

Yeah its a mess in the upper air.

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We've only gotten a few inches in this cold snap...about 4" on the month...it's bad when your heaviest snow rate of the year is from a northerly flow squall from lake ontario (yesterday).

 

Not just there.  I've had 7 events with measurable snow this month, one 4.0" snowfall with the other 6 totaling 1.5".  My least snowy of 14 previous Januarys here is 7.7" in 2004, which is also my coldest month during that period - major suppression.  Given the forecasts/models, I see a 75% chance, at least, of setting a new snowfall low this month, with only some possible front-end glop next week, and I don't see 2"+ coming from that.

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Eh, evolving situation.  The GGEM has overdone every single one of these scrapers at around this range but it's often had the general threat before others.  So, we'll see.

 

 

Well the event threat is there...just I doubt it looks like the way the GGEM/DGEX show it. Euro has the threat too, just about 12 hours later and it uses some southern stream energy to enhance the trough...the GGEM is using solely northern stream energy. Obviously its so far out that all these solutions are going to look drastically different in another couple days even.

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Well the event threat is there...just I doubt it looks like the way the GGEM/DGEX show it. Euro has the threat too, just about 12 hours later and it uses some southern stream energy to enhance the trough...the GGEM is using solely northern stream energy. Obviously its so far out that all these solutions are going to look drastically different in another couple days even.

 

I'd like to see the Euro ramp it up a bit.  My guess is a few GEFS members must have something based on the precip way back in the cold sector.

 

Nogaps looks like the GFS which is probably a good indication the GFS is wrong. 

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I'd like to see the Euro ramp it up a bit.  My guess is a few GEFS members must have something based on the precip way back in the cold sector.

 

Nogaps looks like the GFS which is probably a good indication the GFS is wrong. 

 

 

GEFS are an unmitigated disaster when ti comes to any type of agreement over the front next week...some have it clearing our area a full 24-30 hours before the OP run. Its laugable.

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Interesting.... Brownville Texas could flirt with 100F on D5, on this Euro run

 

...impending super storm?

 

Interesting pattern setups up end of the month.  Euro OP misses on almost two systems...looks like it's got an initial wave on the front well out ahead of the one that emerges from the Gulf and misses.  It's a decent look, broad weakness extends back to the Lakes. Same tug of war as the CMC just not as extreme.   Probably a day or so from more clarity but happy to see the Euro totally come off the crappy suppressed follow up wave.

 

I'll take my chances with a cold shot digging to the GOM and a front offshore.

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Interesting pattern setups up end of the month.  Euro OP misses on almost two systems...looks like it's got an initial wave on the front well out ahead of the one that emerges from the Gulf and misses.  It's a decent look, broad weakness extends back to the Lakes. Same tug of war as the CMC just not as extreme.   Probably a day or so from more clarity but happy to see the Euro totally come off the crappy suppressed follow up wave.

 

I'll take my chances with a cold shot digging to the GOM and a front offshore.

 

 

Agree with this

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