CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You've been pretty optimistic for about 4 weeks. I'd take extremely pissed off and hating the pattern if it brought us snow. It's 6-7 days away, the GFS is probably too fast in developing a low ON the front this far north. If it's real we'll likely see the GFS fall back on the timing as it's normally too fast and we'll end up with something between the two camps. The Euro also has the wave on the front as does the CMC to a lesser degree before they both develop a later system and run it up offshore. The 0z Euro definitely perked up the 1st system before smashing it out south of us, so we'll see. I could see something coming out of the SE on the back end of the stalling front moreso than the anafrontal crap which never happens. Here's what I'll say....I'm optimistic. February has looked good for a while now. Will it deliver epic snows? Snow is the biggest voodoo of all to forecast, but the pieces of the puzzle are there. I like HMs idea of more subtropical action too which gets the Gulf opened up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Absolutely, always blame the climate boogey man and ignore history and complicated factors like atmospheric science lol. I prefer to start from a broad consensus of the vast majority of scientists who study these things from a cross-discliplinary perspective. I totally agree that people over-generalize as does the media sometimes. I mind that less though if it leads to progress in terms of public policy. I am far more concerned about the JB types because I think they create higher risk and inaction. Btw, is this okay convo in the banter thread? I almost never talk about climate change stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You've been pretty optimistic for about 4 weeks. I'd take extremely pissed off and hating the pattern if it brought us snow. It's 6-7 days away, the GFS is probably too fast in developing a low ON the front this far north. If it's real we'll likely see the GFS fall back on the timing as it's normally too fast and we'll end up with something between the two camps. The Euro also has the wave on the front as does the CMC to a lesser degree before they both develop a later system and run it up offshore. The 0z Euro definitely perked up the 1st system before smashing it out south of us, so we'll see. I could see something coming out of the SE on the back end of the stalling front moreso than the anafrontal crap which never happens. Here's what I'll say....I'm optimistic. For the end of this month into Feb....yes. I wasn't optimistic about Jan 5-15 if that is what you are trying to imply. We wasted a couple weeks at the end of this month, but most of that was bad luck, not because the overal pattern is poor. I'll take another crack at a favorable pattern contuing into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 You've been pretty optimistic for about 4 weeks. I'd take extremely pissed off and hating the pattern if it brought us snow. It's 6-7 days away, the GFS is probably too fast in developing a low ON the front this far north. If it's real we'll likely see the GFS fall back on the timing as it's normally too fast and we'll end up with something between the two camps. The Euro also has the wave on the front as does the CMC to a lesser degree before they both develop a later system and run it up offshore. The 0z Euro definitely perked up the 1st system before smashing it out south of us, so we'll see. I could see something coming out of the SE on the back end of the stalling front moreso than the anafrontal crap which never happens. Here's what I'll say....I'm optimistic. I'm glad to hear youre optimistic, maybe you'll be less of a boner next month. In all seriousness, I can see why new england mets were getting optimistic this month as Arctic Air was introduced. Is the Midwest and New England facing a possible "suppressed" winter here? We'll see how the final numbers turn out but we are about to watch at least 2 more events miss to the south. Surely with an active southern stream in Feb, something has to come flying up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Lol your last sentence reminded me that I'm probably in for another "treat" of a snowfall tonight. But hey, at least there is snow falling and prospects for more in Feb. take your inch and a half and run with it. In the old days, it would've been Herb Clarke or Jim O'Brien talking about a "travelers advisory". I am in NYC alot through Feb so I will benefit if you do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm glad to hear your optimistic, maybe you'll be less of a boner next month. In all seriousness, I can see why new england mets were getting optimistic this month as Arctic Air was introduced. Is the Midwest and New England facing a possible "suppressed" winter here? We'll see how the final numbers turn out but we are about to watch at least 2 more events miss to the south. Surely with an active southern stream in Feb, something has to come flying up the coast. Actually the goal is firmer weenies going forward not softer ones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 take your inch and a half and run with it. In the old days, it would've been Herb Clarke or Jim O'Brien talking about a "travelers advisory". I am in NYC alot through Feb so I will benefit if you do well. I've got a feeling I'm going to narrowly miss the 1"+ stuff, but it will be close. The S-C PA, N MD into S NJ pipeline seems reasonable but I may be a hair too north (Mount Laurel). We'll see and I'll definitely take it and run. How's Concord looking for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Will and Phil... Phil and Will. What are your takes on the mild up next Wednesday or lack of one if you choose? my expectation is a light snow to ice event for you...followed by ~30 hours of 35-42F type stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 my expectation is a light snow to ice cold rain event for you with some ice north of the pike...followed by ~30 hours of 35-42F type stuff. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I know people like to rail on the media about agw...and clearly they don't know what they're talking about most of the time...but everyone should be aware of where the real money and lobbying power lies lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 my expectation is a light snow to ice event for you...followed by ~30 hours of 35-42F type stuff.I'd hit it from behind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Fixed. true. didn't think about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I've got a feeling I'm going to narrowly miss the 1"+ stuff, but it will be close. The S-C PA, N MD into S NJ pipeline seems reasonable but I may be a hair too north (Mount Laurel). We'll see and I'll definitely take it and run. How's Concord looking for next week? Based on what I can ascertain, we get some light precip Mon and Tues which will be mostly frozen. We are warming aloft but might stay dammed at the surface for freezing rain, or we might bust through and warm at all levels for rain. This is implied in the convo on here and out of GYX. HPC seems unsure. I wouldn't be surprised to see that happen because it happened recently. On the other hand, we are further into colder MJO phases, so perhaps we break colder and snowier in the short term. After mid week we turn cold and then we see if the STJ gets involved. It looks like it should be a good period, but I thought that 2 or 3 weeks ago and now I have ascended testiculi with only 2 inches....on the ground that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'd hit it from behind I always say to not turn your back on love unless that's where you want it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS still digging the huge trough in the west unlike the Euro/Euro ensembles...that would give us a more potent and longer torch period than the very brief one the other solutions give us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I know people like to rail on the media about agw...and clearly they don't know what they're talking about most of the time...but everyone should be aware of where the real money and lobbying power lies lol. Cynical but true - ha! If the media could make a billion out of "AGW" fear mongering, there would be one helluva powerful environmental lobby born. Human are clueless dipsh*ts. The problem with the Global Warming debate is that the people involved are morons. They do not apparently understand the difference between "Anthropogenic Green House gas attributed Global Warming", and Global Warming associated to natural cycles in climate. So what happens? In not understanding that disconnect, they immediately assume it must therefore all be bias, and then summarily dismiss the entire tortured debate as pseudo-science. Colossally dumb, and dangerous. Whether mankind is the "cause" for the last 100 years of statistically proven rise in mean Global temperatures, or not, the fact of the matter is, the Global temperatures are warming - hence, GLOBAL ****ING WARMING ***holeS! Now... if we want to get into whether the activities of industrializing Humanity are to blame, that would require a lot of upper tier scientific endeavor to research and show mathematically/physically how/why that is the case. The unfortunate catch-22 there is, by the time those discoveries are made ...more importantly, the truth of which penetrates the 5 miles of lead that separates the greed of man from accepting his culpability, will ensure [probably] some kind of demise in the current modern form of living. Unilaterally, for everyone, perhaps ecologically catastrophic as it happens, too. The simple fact of the matter is, the entire world wants to live like Americans, and there just simply are not enough natural resources around to unilaterally provide that same scale in exploitation of land, air and seas, required to power the American orgy. We are living in borrowed ecological times, people - and it is not fear mongering, it is fact. That all said, of course the drought in the Midwest isn't caused by GW, or AGW... On a fundamental level, weather makes climate, climate does not make weather. What is difficult is that past climate does not describe future climate, so using "climate" in the argument of all, is completely logically flawed. The science should be redirected to proving the correlation between altering atmospheric chemistry ( via industrial refuse or not ) and then stop there. As in, "you do this, you die or don't die", end of debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I always say to not turn your back on love unless that's where you want it.Im not entirely sure what that means but it makes me feel dirty and think ill pull my trousers up and walk away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I'm glad to hear youre optimistic, maybe you'll be less of a boner next month. In all seriousness, I can see why new england mets were getting optimistic this month as Arctic Air was introduced. Is the Midwest and New England facing a possible "suppressed" winter here? We'll see how the final numbers turn out but we are about to watch at least 2 more events miss to the south. Surely with an active southern stream in Feb, something has to come flying up the coast. I think most are just tired of the hope and change talk, we've had it for 2 or 3 January and Februarys. Despite all the talk of possibilities, MJO and such I think the models have in general done an overall good job in pointing to a dry, boring pattern even for the absolute novice looking at just the 1000-500. This brief warmup is a perfect example, even the OP GFS has mainly had this feature since it initially came into range in the 10-15 day period. There's been a couple of systems that popped up, but they weren't destined to be much including the one that produced the first 1-4, maybe 5" event a week or so ago. The water vapor one, you remember. They've all had small windows where they looked better. The talk has been so vague it's really had to get hopes up. I'm optimistic as the full latitude trough swings across at the end of the month. After that I won't be surprised by a pattern breakdown after the 7th or so...doesn't mean what it switches to is unfavorable though. I think our best shot is the 31 to 2nd period for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Cynical but true - ha! If the media could make a billion out of "AGW" fear mongering, there would be one helluva powerful environmental lobby born. Human are clueless dipsh*ts. The problem with the Global Warming debate is that the people involved are morons. They do not apparently understand the difference between "Anthropogenic Green House gas attributed Global Warming", and Global Warming associated to natural cycles in climate. So what happens? In not understanding that disconnect, they immediately assume it must therefore all be bias, and then summarily dismiss the entire tortured debate as pseudo-science. Colossally dumb, and dangerous. Whether mankind is the "cause" for the last 100 years of statistically proven rise in mean Global temperatures, or not, the fact of the matter is, the Global temperatures are warming - hence, GLOBAL ****ING WARMING ***holeS! Now... if we want to get into whether the activities of industrializing Humanity are to blame, that would require a lot of upper tier scientific endeavor to research and show mathematically/physically how/why that is the case. The unfortunate catch-22 there is, by the time those discoveries are made ...more importantly, the truth of which penetrates the 5 miles of lead that separates the greed of man from accepting his culpability, will ensure [probably] some kind of demise in the current modern form of living. Unilaterally, for everyone, perhaps ecologically catastrophic as it happens, too. The simple fact of the matter is, the entire world wants to live like Americans, and there just simply are not enough natural resources around to unilaterally provide that same scale in exploitation of land, air and seas, required to power the American orgy. We are living in borrowed ecological times, people - and it is not fear mongering, it is fact. That all said, of course the drought in the Midwest isn't caused by GW, or AGW... On a fundamental level, weather makes climate, climate does not make weather. What is difficult is that past climate does not describe future climate, so using "climate" in the argument of all, is completely logically flawed. The science should be redirected to proving the correlation between altering atmospheric chemistry ( via industrial refuse or not ) and then stop there. As in, "you do this, you die or don't die", end of debate. This post pleases me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Im not entirely sure what that means but it makes me feel dirty and think ill pull my trousers up and walk away Lol. I have no response. I wish Zeus was here. I do think it is sig worthy though and I am considering that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GFS still digging the huge trough in the west unlike the Euro/Euro ensembles...that would give us a more potent and longer torch period than the very brief one the other solutions give us. Yes, I painstaking posted about that yesterday when describing the Euro continuity breakdown that began per that 12z run. The trough splits in the west on the Euro (prior runs were more like these GFS' you describe), and that drills the N-stream more progressively across the N-tier, pinching/limiting the warmth to the south. This 00z run of the Euro continues along the 12z's idea, just happens to allow a little more warm sector to get N. Still, the idea is a vastly different middle to extended range compared to the stubborn full-latitude trough idea of the GFS. I will say this much ... phasing has not been favored this season. In fact, anti-phasing is more appropriate to describe, because the flow is just too damn unrelentingly fast and progressive to allow the wave frequencies to sync up. So the GFS may be fight seasonal trend there - we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The dry Plains is a pattern that was going to occur again. I'm sure this time it will be blamed on climate change when that is only part of the issue.....perhaps only a small part. May spell doom for my early June chasing trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 May spell doom for my early June chasing trip Ryan, why are you going early June? Would late April through early May time better?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Ryan, why are you going early June? Would late April through early May time better?? If your schedule allows for it, would you maybe like to join him on the trip? Two mets who think alike and have similar interests would really be fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 i'd almost welcome the GFS just to get a storm to move across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Ryan, why are you going early June? Would late April through early May time better?? I can't take vacation in may so I'm stuck with early June. Probably flying into Denver and doing the high plains or whatever looks best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 If your schedule allows for it, would you maybe like to join him on the trip? Two mets who think alike and have similar interests would really be fun actually that would probably be a really fun time for both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 good lord at the depth of that low on the gfs...951mb over Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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