ChrisM Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 First 2/3rds of the movie Falling Down were awesome. lol on the twitter fight yesterday. That's what happens in a crappy pattern. Gotta love winter on AWX. I missed it but I heard it was epic, did it all get deleted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The one that's been on the GFS off and on for about a week. The GFS may be running too fast with the energy..which is why the CMC and Euro are a day or two behind. ah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Phil the CMC has the first system flat and well offshore at 156, rides another one up into the region about 24 hours later than the GFS. more than likely there's something in that period from later on the 31st through about the 2nd. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The dry Plains is a pattern that was going to occur again. I'm sure this time it will be blamed on climate change when that is only part of the issue.....perhaps only a small part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 alot of it got deleted heres whats left http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38893-january-25-26-storm-potential/page-62 I missed it but I heard it was epic, did it all get deleted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 ah. Euro almost has the 1st wave now but doesn't do much with it, step up from the 12z yesterday though. Develops a later system and just misses. My eggs are in the 31st to 2nd basket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Euro almost has the 1st wave now but doesn't do much with it, step up from the 12z yesterday though. Develops a later system and just misses. My eggs are in the 31st to 2nd basket. I think the big bad wolf is going to knock the basket out of your hands and eat all of the eggs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The dry Plains is a pattern that was going to occur again. I'm sure this time it will be blamed on climate change when that is only part of the issue.....perhaps only a small part. i was thinking this as well this morning. it's going to be a nightmare to listen to. it'll be forgotten what the last 15 years were like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think the big bad wolf is going to knock the basket out of your hands and eat all of the eggs I generally just forecast the opposite of whatever you forecast and it's worked out most of the winter, so if that's your forecast I like my chances. All kidding aside you could be right, time will tell. It'll be terrific if it glances us again with 7 flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I really don't see a post frontal wave...well at least it will be tough to do I think. The 2/2 to 2/3 deal may be around..although that's way out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 i was thinking this as well this morning. it's going to be a nightmare to listen to. it'll be forgotten what the last 15 years were like. And just think if those floods in 1993 happened now. What do you think we would hear? I'm all for understanding climate change because it is real, but it seems like too easy of an excuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 A lot of guidance has something in the Feb 1-4 time range. I doubt an anafrontal wave too, but 'm not sure if that is the same thing as a "post-frontal" wave. Technically, any wave that forms after the cold front moves through is going to be post-frontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 No mean to bring climate change and global warming into the forum; but yes, you cannot blame a single event on GW. However, you can make an analysis of previous droughts and make the relationship, once this current one terminates. Stagnancy in patterns on a seasonal time scale have been correlated to the oceans but also the sea ice loss which could make the longer-term drought even worse than usual. The process is obviously too complex for anyone to make a definitive statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I don't care if its a wave that goes around the Superdome a few times next weekend. Just get us a freaking snowstorm before time runs out mid- late Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 And just think if those floods in 1993 happened now. What do you think we would hear? I'm all for understanding climate change because it is real, but it seems like too easy of an excuse. A big problem is most people seem to have a very short term memory when it comes to severe wx conditions, everyone rushes to call something unprecedented when in reality there's often plenty examples of the same thing happening in the past (floods droughts hurricanes etc.)Many would rather try and find a single factor to blame rather than get a better understanding of how the atmosphere works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 No mean to bring climate change and global warming into the forum; but yes, you cannot blame a single event on GW. However, you can make an analysis of previous droughts and make the relationship, once this current one terminates. Stagnancy in patterns on a seasonal time scale have been correlated to the oceans but also the sea ice loss which could make the longer-term drought even worse than usual. The process is obviously too complex for anyone to make a definitive statement. I don't mean to bring it up either, but the media is out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 A big problem is most people seem to have a very short term memory when it comes to severe wx conditions, everyone rushes to call something unprecedented when in reality there's often plenty examples of the same thing happening in the past (floods droughts hurricanes etc.) Can you imagine if we lived through the 50s and 60s which were epic for wild weather? If that period came back to visit, it would be one giant orgasm for the AGW crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 A lot of guidance has something in the Feb 1-4 time range. I doubt an anafrontal wave too, but 'm not sure if that is the same thing as a "post-frontal" wave. Technically, any wave that forms after the cold front moves through is going to be post-frontal. haha...yeah that's i guess what i was getting at without saying it. when he was mentioning post-frontal i assumed he was thinking some wave running along the boundary (which in a sense he is with referencing the way the GFS handles it). the euro and cmc are not really in the same vein. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 haha...yeah that's i guess what i was getting at without saying it. when he was mentioning post-frontal i assumed he was thinking some wave running along the boundary (which in a sense he is with referencing the way the GFS handles it). the euro and cmc are not really in the same vein. Yeah the GFS is more of an actual anafrontal wave....the others are a totally seperate s/w coming in long after the cold has re-established itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Can you imagine if we lived through the 50s and 60s which were epic for wild weather? If that period came back to visit, it would be one giant orgasm for the AGW crowd. Absolutely, always blame the climate boogey man and ignore history and complicated factors like atmospheric science lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Yeah the GFS is more of an actual anafrontal wave....the others are a totally seperate s/w coming in long after the cold has re-established itself. which work out almost never. we'd definitely want a different piece of energy coming down the backside of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 which work out almost never. we'd definitely want a different piece of energy coming down the backside of the trough. Agreed. I'm pretty optimistic going forward. Not to get people too obsessed over the analogs....but there are some powerhouse years showing up in there...moreso than even the last couple days. Weeklies and ensembles all think we'll have our shots at least through Mid-February I think. Hopefully we can have a favorable pattern beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I don't mean to bring it up either, but the media is out of control. Of course but they are merely pawns. What's more disappointing is the overall lack in knowledge among our own community...meteorologists. Let's face it: it is two different worlds, climate and meteorology, and non-meteorologists can be just as if not more knowledgeable when it comes to climate change. The amount of ignorance I hear from our world is amazing to me, despite the degree. Sometimes the only way to convince a stubborn class is to play their game and incorrectly blame events on climate change to get their cooperation. But I couldn't possibly speculate further than that on the subject. I think I would be too sensitive to play any type of game like that myself but it does go on all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Models will be even worse than normal until mid-Feb when things settle down in the GLAAM/MJO department and the stratospheric burp is finishing up. So just have patience and brace yourself the next couple of weeks. Lol. I have no problem bracing myself...the last 2 winters have built my skills....but I would like for the misses by models to please fall on the positive side instead of the negative side. I have to think that with the strat warm and MJO, that we should have trends in the shorter term break to the colder snowier side. I hope so. I don't live up here north of Concord NH to be looking at a snow pack of 0-2 inches in late January. Another year of this and I will ask for a refund! I live in Philly for 20 years and was raised in Delaware so I am quite familiar with the frustrations in your area when it comes to winter weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 i was thinking this as well this morning. it's going to be a nightmare to listen to. it'll be forgotten what the last 15 years were like. Well as an alternative, you could read JB's unending incessant tweets that anyone who thinks the we have global warming and that humans have anything to do with that must be a lying liberal kook and part of a vast conspiracy to make money for Al Gore or something. Lol, the hyperbole gets out of hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 A lot of guidance has something in the Feb 1-4 time range. I doubt an anafrontal wave too, but 'm not sure if that is the same thing as a "post-frontal" wave. Technically, any wave that forms after the cold front moves through is going to be post-frontal. analfrontals never seem to work out around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Agreed. I'm pretty optimistic going forward. Not to get people too obsessed over the analogs....but there are some powerhouse years showing up in there...moreso than even the last couple days. Weeklies and ensembles all think we'll have our shots at least through Mid-February I think. Hopefully we can have a favorable pattern beyond that. You've been pretty optimistic for about 4 weeks. I'd take extremely pissed off and hating the pattern if it brought us snow. It's 6-7 days away, the GFS is probably too fast in developing a low ON the front this far north. If it's real we'll likely see the GFS fall back on the timing as it's normally too fast and we'll end up with something between the two camps. The Euro also has the wave on the front as does the CMC to a lesser degree before they both develop a later system and run it up offshore. The 0z Euro definitely perked up the 1st system before smashing it out south of us, so we'll see. I could see something coming out of the SE on the back end of the stalling front moreso than the anafrontal crap which never happens. Here's what I'll say....I'm optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Will and Phil... Phil and Will. What are your takes on the mild up next Wednesday or lack of one if you choose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 No mean to bring climate change and global warming into the forum; but yes, you cannot blame a single event on GW. However, you can make an analysis of previous droughts and make the relationship, once this current one terminates. Stagnancy in patterns on a seasonal time scale have been correlated to the oceans but also the sea ice loss which could make the longer-term drought even worse than usual. The process is obviously too complex for anyone to make a definitive statement. Wow! A reasoned response on this topic. Thank you HM and also Scott. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Lol. I have no problem bracing myself...the last 2 winters have built my skills....but I would like for the misses by models to please fall on the positive side instead of the negative side. I have to think that with the strat warm and MJO, that we should have trends in the shorter term break to the colder snowier side. I hope so. I don't live up here north of Concord NH to be looking at a snow pack of 0-2 inches in late January. Another year of this and I will ask for a refund! I live in Philly for 20 years and was raised in Delaware so I am quite familiar with the frustrations in your area when it comes to winter weather... Lol your last sentence reminded me that I'm probably in for another "treat" of a snowfall tonight. But hey, at least there is snow falling and prospects for more in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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