SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left

[CoastalWx]

Well euro tries to torch now, but has a little snow and ice Monday Night. Back into the freezer later next week.

[moneypitmike]

Well euro tries to torch now, but has a little snow and ice Monday Night. Back into the freezer later next week.

 

Looks like I'll be missing diddly during my Orlando trip (tomorrow-Tuesday).  Guess I get to return to a torch.  Maybe my trip to Iowa Feb 4-6 will deliver the goods to SNE.

 

Meanwhile, my seasonal snowfall total is going into the crapper.  Sitting with a relatively paltry 32" with all of 4-5" inches of snow on the ground (that amount doesn't really merit the word 'pack').  At least the wind the last few days continually covers over any footprints so it looks a little fresh.

[NaoPos]

Well euro tries to torch now, but has a little snow and ice Monday Night. Back into the freezer later next week.

Don't forget that "little" system it shows next week ;-)

[Damage In Tolland]

Well euro tries to torch now, but has a little snow and ice Monday Night. Back into the freezer later next week.

Key word is tries..it doesn't really succeed

[Damage In Tolland]

We are running out time..energy mets are tossing this out there.. ugh

 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Key word is tries..it doesn't really succeed[/quote

Kind of does.]

[CoastalWx]

We are running out time..energy mets are tossing this out there.. ugh

I'll take the over on Feb 14th. They also got too excited when the weeklies cancelled winter a few weeks ago.

[Damage In Tolland]

Key word is tries..it doesn't really succeed[/quote

Kind of does.]

I'd bet anything it ends up being a 12-18 hour period where it gets near 40 or into the 40's when all is said and done..I'd bet Tuesday remains cold sectored after snow/ice..and it takes till Wed to break out  and Euro is quicker wih fropa than ridiculous GFS with monster rainstorm

[mahk_webstah]

reading hpc this am, they are clueless as to where the pattern is going, simply blending gfs and ec with little confidence.  At this point I think the only way to try to get a handle on this is to look at the big picture global features and try to ascertain where they lead.  It would seem to me that you could look at those and at analogues based around where the large scale features have been the last week or so.  I don't really know how to do that, but I guess that is what Don S does and HM when they talk about med-long range.

 

Anyone have a take on this?  I actually find it surprising that HPC doesn't do that in a situation like this.  I like HPC and think they are good...i always read them.  So why don't they provide a little more in terms of guidance, analogues, global key features?

[weathafella]

reading hpc this am, they are clueless as to where the pattern is going, simply blending gfs and ec with little confidence.  At this point I think the only way to try to get a handle on this is to look at the big picture global features and try to ascertain where they lead.  It would seem to me that you could look at those and at analogues based around where the large scale features have been the last week or so.  I don't really know how to do that, but I guess that is what Don S does and HM when they talk about med-long range.

 

Anyone have a take on this?  I actually find it surprising that HPC doesn't do that in a situation like this.  I like HPC and think they are good...i always read them.  So why don't they provide a little more in terms of guidance, analogues, global key features?

The pattern had gotten to them too.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

2-14 could probe to be optimistic in terms or the polar cold. We may see real change as we tick from week 1 to 2

[Cold Miser]

10F right now.

 

Worst met expression ever = "cold snap".  I can't stand the use of the word "snap".  Not just here, but in another pop culture use - "oh snap!". I'm not even sure what that even means.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The tick issue is big and I'm glad you brought it up. Lyme was pretty rampant this past summer thanks to a very warm winter and lots of ticks surviving. Safe to say this regime is nuking them.

 

I'm not sure it will do that much.  It also depends a lot on the regional mouse population which is on the increase due to the decrease of the NE fox population.  (Damn coyotes driving them out)

 

As a doctor you might find some interesting stuff in this Lyme documentary.  Actually everyone should watch it:

 

http://www.underourskin.com/

 

 

They just found another tick born disease on Nantucket.  First time confirmed in the US.  We were pulling ticks off a week ago during the mild up inferno.

 

This was desperately needed for the pests though.  Bugs, moths, critters of all types are dying away as are winter weather weenies with each passing day of high cirrus and ball bag retracting cold.

 

 

My father was in the hospital for the entire week before Christmas after being positively diagnosed with tick borne babeosis (sp?) and had four weeks of heavy duty antibiotics.  The guy from CDC who saw him everyday is quite concerned that it's becoming more common in NE tick populations.  It's like a N American version of malaria.  Bad stuff.

 

Ticks are extremely cold tolerant, there population has little to do with mild or cold winters.

 

I was snow shoeing this past sunday in N NH and got bitten by a black legged dog tick.  In the middle of f'n January!

[ineedsnow]

make it 2/2 I would love a good storm on my birthday 

Scott ggem has the trailing system too. A little later but it's there. I think it's the real deal. Gfs has it right on the front, ggem a day behind.

Getting a little excited, I think that's the next good potential...1/31 to 2/1 or 2

Some gefs members must have some form of it lots of hang back precip in the mean.

[OSUmetstud]

I noticed that the Euro/Euro ensembles kinda lose the AK ridging in the extended (I can't see beyond day 10).  Any thoughts on this?  

 

There isn't a super strong PV being modeled either, that could be a good thing.

[CoastalWx]

I noticed that the Euro/Euro ensembles kinda lose the AK ridging in the extended (I can't see beyond day 10). Any thoughts on this?

There isn't a super strong PV being modeled either, that could be a good thing.

They actually brought it back again towards the end

[kevin1927]

I'm not sure it will do that much.  It also depends a lot on the regional mouse population which is on the increase due to the decrease of the NE fox population.  (Damn coyotes driving them out)

 

As a doctor you might find some interesting stuff in this Lyme documentary.  Actually everyone should watch it:

 

http://www.underourskin.com/

 

 

 

 

My father was in the hospital for the entire week before Christmas after being positively diagnosed with tick borne babeosis (sp?) and had four weeks of heavy duty antibiotics.  The guy from CDC who saw him everyday is quite concerned that it's becoming more common in NE tick populations.  It's like a N American version of malaria.  Bad stuff.

 

 

I was snow shoeing this past sunday in N NH and got bitten by a black legged dog tick.  In the middle of f'n January!

Scary. Isn't that some type of parasite?

 

haha. Been watching too much "Monsters Inside Me" on Animal Planet. That show is freaky.

[Cold Miser]

Fun winter videos to pass the time:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lP7GW9eoWAQ

[HM]

I would counter by asking what will end this drought? Bone dry now and predominantly dry for a year or more. Yes a reaction to prior wet but a major concern going into this winter. We have the cold, snows no where to be found thanks to squish squash my car needs a wash....never do the skies open up...

Conditions have been right for a good snow now and 2 big chances shat the bed. Sooner or later or missed opportunities?

 

The national drought situation is likely to get worse this warm season. There is really no way to handle this problem than to be blunt. The thing about the East Coast and southern US is that we can occasionally see breaks when we see shifts in the GLAAM and tropical forcing. Despite the strong nina tendency this year and crappy wave production, it seems like we are in for a 2-3 week break from that type of thing.

 

Forget about individual storms beyond day 7 and notice the STJ ramping up with numerous southern stream waves being modeled. This is the kind of thing that can bring some relief. But if you are going to talk climo and seasonal departures, this period probably will not be enough to end the "dry spell." So it is always about the period you are defining.

[HM]

I am not so sure the MJO just propagates into the West Pac late Feb-March. I've been posting about this in the philly forum. I think it may end up looping (8-1-2-3-4-2-3-4 etc.) in the IO / western Indonesia. This is not exactly a warm signal in late winter and will bring periodic East Asian responses.

[MaineJayhawk]

10F right now.

 

Worst met expression ever = "cold snap".  I can't stand the use of the word "snap".  Not just here, but in another pop culture use - "oh snap!". I'm not even sure what that even means.

I think "snap" would accurately describe what Joe did when accused of using Twitter.  Holy Falling Down ...

[mahk_webstah]

The national drought situation is likely to get worse this warm season. There is really no way to handle this problem than to be blunt. The thing about the East Coast and southern US is that we can occasionally see breaks when we see shifts in the GLAAM and tropical forcing. Despite the strong nina tendency this year and crappy wave production, it seems like we are in for a 2-3 week break from that type of thing.

 

Forget about individual storms beyond day 7 and notice the STJ ramping up with numerous southern stream waves being modeled. This is the kind of thing that can bring some relief. But if you are going to talk climo and seasonal departures, this period probably will not be enough to end the "dry spell." So it is always about the period you are defining.

About 1-2 weeks ago you said the med range models were going to suck for a while.  That has been abundantly true and I read one of the lowest confidence HPC discussions I've seen in a while this morning.  Do you think we get a better handle soon or is the model difficulties likely to continue?

[Cold Miser]

I think "snap" would accurately describe what Joe did when accused of using Twitter.  Holy Falling Down ...

First 2/3rds of the movie Falling Down were awesome.

 

lol on the twitter fight yesterday.  That's what happens in a crappy pattern.  Gotta love winter on AWX.

[Damage In Tolland]

The national drought situation is likely to get worse this warm season. There is really no way to handle this problem than to be blunt. The thing about the East Coast and southern US is that we can occasionally see breaks when we see shifts in the GLAAM and tropical forcing. Despite the strong nina tendency this year and crappy wave production, it seems like we are in for a 2-3 week break from that type of thing.

Forget about individual storms beyond day 7 and notice the STJ ramping up with numerous southern stream waves being modeled. This is the kind of thing that can bring some relief. But if you are going to talk climo and seasonal departures, this period probably will not be enough to end the "dry spell." So it is always Dabout the period you are defining.

Do you think we could be looking at a modern version of the Dust Bowl?

[Tropopause_Fold]

Out here, there's a number of places where the deer tick population is carrying equal ratios of Lyme, babesiosis and anaplasmosis. some ticks are now carrying all 3 and can actually transfer all 3 to a human. that's a nasty cocktail to take in and can cause some serious (actually life-threatening combination if not treated quickly) problems.

 

everyone thinks about Lyme and is tested for Lyme now but people don't know about the other two. in some parts of the Cape, ACK and MVY, the latter two illnesses are actually becoming more prevalent in some tick populations than Lyme - and Lyme can show up in very high numbers.

 

My father was in the hospital for the entire week before Christmas after being positively diagnosed with tick borne babeosis (sp?) and had four weeks of heavy duty antibiotics.  The guy from CDC who saw him everyday is quite concerned that it's becoming more common in NE tick populations.  It's like a N American version of malaria.  Bad stuff.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Remember when we talk about the "post frontal" system....the GFS is almost always too fast with the s/w energy which is probably leading it to play games with a pure post frontal system vs the slower Euro/GGEM.  Probably the slower models will end up being more correct.  If it's a real deal and is more towards later on the 31st through the 2nd, it will likely take the GFS a few runs to grasps the timing of the s/w. 

I do think there's going to be an important storm in that period, finally.   If not, toaster time.

 

The tick stuff should scare most people into paying attention.  It's becoming a health crisis.

[HM]

About 1-2 weeks ago you said the med range models were going to suck for a while.  That has been abundantly true and I read one of the lowest confidence HPC discussions I've seen in a while this morning.  Do you think we get a better handle soon or is the model difficulties likely to continue?

 

Models will be even worse than normal until mid-Feb when things settle down in the GLAAM/MJO department and the stratospheric burp is finishing up. So just have patience and brace yourself the next couple of weeks.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Remember when we talk about the "post frontal" system....the GFS is almost always too fast with the s/w energy which is probably leading it to play games with a pure post frontal system vs the slower Euro/GGEM.  Probably the slower models will end up being more correct.  If it's a real deal and is more towards later on the 31st through the 2nd, it will likely take the GFS a few runs to grasps the timing of the s/w. 

I do think there's going to be an important storm in that period, finally.   If not, toaster time.

 

what "post-frontal" system are you talking about?

[HM]

Do you think we could be looking at a modern version of the Dust Bowl?

 

No. We've learned valuable lessons since then that should prevent something like that on an agricultural perspective. Still, it is going to be tough on the Plains for the next 10 years or so until we get away from these unfavorable oscillations in the ocean, air and sun.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

what "post-frontal" system are you talking about?

 

The one that's been on the GFS off and on for about a week.

 

The GFS may be running too fast with the energy..which is why the CMC and Euro are a day or two behind.