SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left

[Ginx snewx]

Just got off a call....Baltimore area with an inch of snow. Probably more en rout. Boston's in a rut. Cosmic dildo run of the euro with the only qpf showing up in the 10 days for sne a few showers with fropa.

I am compiling a list of sayings here, cosmic,and cordillera are in the C group. 

[Ginx snewx]

I know what they mean, but I think some don't understand how to use them. I'm not implicating you.....just saying some get their weenies all stiff when they see those years.

I admit they did stiffen the old putter up a tad. Lets hope we get a break.

[weatherwiz]

I hate analogs.

 

I think analogs are fine just as long as you use them properly and understand them correctly.  Analogs are highly useful for large scale pattern purposes but when you start using analogs for smaller scale purposes and such chances are you'll be disappointed.  

[weathafella]

This is why it's time to get excited for severe weather season.  

We would if we lived in Arkansas.

[weatherwiz]

We would if we lived in Arkansas.

 

We have to broaden our views and our minds...use our imaginations.  

[Logan11]

Yeah I'm 140 from Hartford...so more to your place..

 

In 02-03 it was producing those good interior storms anyway.

 

I'm headed out for a 4 mile snow shoe.  If no snow falls before next weeks torch, even the wooded trails here will be wrecked.

You did, you are like 250 miles from me though. But yea you guys had a consistent winter.

[Ginx snewx]

if you mean this January ...I think the majors are still running positive for this month.  worth a check -

last half, I know what the F-6 is to date, any luck we end up under 1 either side, its a push

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Just got off a call....Baltimore area with an inch of snow. Probably more en rout. Boston's in a rut. Cosmic dildo run of the euro with the only qpf showing up in the 10 days for sne a few showers with fropa.

 

Tip is that you?  

 

I think we all knew this post was coming.

 

I think their usefulness in predicting the actual pattern outcome will increase over the years.  In 50-100 years it'll be more than the voodoo it is now.  Some of the years we're using as analogs...did we even have the data sampling back then to be sure of what we think happened happened?  IE,  RAOBS etc?

 

Will is right they're probably not well understood.  Just because the longwave pattern is similar doesn't mean the outcome will be anything near similar.  but anyway, nothing else to look at.

 

Analogs give weenies hope, reality slaps it down most of the time.

[Tropopause_Fold]

You calling that? Would be an epic stretch to make that happen and I hope you're right.

yep

[Baroclinic Zone]

I hate analogs.

 

Such a dirty word.

[weatherwiz]

Such a dirty word.

 

I love dirty talk

[ORH_wxman]

 

You calling that? Would be an epic stretch to make that happen and I hope you're right.

 

I don't think it woul dhave to be "epic" BOS would need about 30-32" to make that happen. If it all happened within 3 weeks in February, then yes, that would be pretty epic. But if they got a solid 18-20" in February and a foot in March, that would qualify as very good but not epic IMHO. Its certainly doable.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Nice to see 03 and 67 in their, lol. We have a chance we just need a role player to step in and start hitting line drives, no need for 3 run homers, but Grand slams are always nice.

 

Doubles all day and night.  Right now we are bunting to get on and are failing miserably. 

[Ginx snewx]

Doubles all day and night.  Right now we are bunting to get on and are failing miserably. 

Dribblers down the third base line for hits every innning. We need rally caps and some JUJU, sometimes getting on on an error starts the rally (torch fail would be a great error)

[Tropopause_Fold]

  

I don't think it woul dhave to be "epic" BOS would need about 30-32" to make that happen. If it all happened within 3 weeks in February, then yes, that would be pretty epic. But if they got a solid 18-20" in February and a foot in March, that would qualify as very good but not epic IMHO. Its certainly doable.

yeah that's what i was going to say. i don't think it needs to be huge to get it done. one big event...couple of modest systems. 

[CoastalWx]

I admit they did stiffen the old putter up a tad. Lets hope we get a break.

They are useful to show the pros and cons...I'm just not the biggest fan of them.

[Damage In Tolland]

A foot in Morch??

[ORH_wxman]

 

yeah that's what i was going to say. i don't think it needs to be huge to get it done. one big event...couple of modest systems. 

 

The type of ending I described (or better) has happened in BOS 15 times since 1950. I allowed a couple 29.5" totals into the mix. So that is about 1 in 4 years. Most recently it happened in 2005...then 2003.

[weathafella]

Well Phil is reasoned and careful so I'm going to now expect this....lol

[CoastalWx]

Well if the models are right, Feb could be fun. Jerry that's why I was optimistic on the pattern on paper....but I don't know about snow. You would think it has to come sooner or later.

[mahk_webstah]

A week and a half ago HM said, actually warned, that the mid range models were going to suck for a while.  They have.  10 days of dry?  I don't think that's likely.  Anyhow I thought we had something for early/mid week?  HPC thought so.  So I wait and trust.  I reenter the circle of trust.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles next week limit torch.

[donsutherland1]

2002/2003 and 1966 1967 comback years, with 67 being Donnie baseballs analog I like it.

 

1966-67      9.9   0.5  23.5  22.9   3.3      60.1

 

2002-03   3.6   9.6   4.2  39.9   8.1   2.3    67.7

A word of caution is in order. The idea that the month could wind up on the cold side of normal is a higher confidence proposition than precipitation. The most recent run of the CFSv2 supports the idea of a cold outcome. The overall pattern being shown is probably more important than trying to get into too much detail.

 

The potential for a snowier outcome than January is probably good and, if the analogs provide reasonble insight, above normal snowfall is a possibility. However, there are two big risk factors worth mentioning: (1) the evolution of the nation's widespread drought and (2) a generally less than active subtropical jet. The latest run of the CFSv2 is bone dry and that has been a persistent theme on that model. Fortunately, the CFSv2 is much less skillful when it comes to precipitation (it had a big miss for December in the East). Nevertheless, in the context of the nation's widespread drought, some degree of caution is warranted. The cold will likely predominate at least through the first half of February and perhaps longer, but will there be sufficient precipitation? I lean toward a snowier outcome, but my confidence in that outcome is less than it is with regard to temperatures.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro ensembles next week limit torch.

Naked

[Brian5671]

nice post Don. I wonder how that big drought effects spring and summer-blowtorch through July like last year?

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh man - probably the last thing anyone wants to hear but the D10 operational Euro was tantalizing. 

[Ginx snewx]

A word of caution is in order. The idea that the month could wind up on the cold side of normal is a higher confidence proposition than precipitation. The most recent run of the CFSv2 supports the idea of a cold outcome. The overall pattern being shown is probably more important than trying to get into too much detail.

 

The potential for a snowier outcome than January is probably good and, if the analogs provide reasonble insight, above normal snowfall is a possibility. However, there are two big risk factors worth mentioning: (1) the evolution of the nation's widespread drought and (2) a generally less than active subtropical jet. The latest run of the CFSv2 is bone dry and that has been a persistent theme on that model. Fortunately, the CFSv2 is much less skillful when it comes to precipitation (it had a big miss for December in the East). Nevertheless, in the context of the nation's widespread drought, some degree of caution is warranted. The cold will likely predominate at least through the first half of February and perhaps longer, but will there be sufficient precipitation? I lean toward a snowier outcome, but my confidence in that outcome is less than it is with regard to temperatures.

No need to caution me Don its always a concern, especially this year. most of us have said over and over patterns do not make it snow. That being said, I like our chances.

[Baroclinic Zone]

LOL..good stuff. Wonder if Bob lets you keep yours

Banter away baby.

[Damage In Tolland]

Oh man - probably the last thing anyone wants to hear but the D10 operational Euro was tantalizing.

No way you've already moved forward to girls with legs open facing twds the street at outdoor restaurant weather

[weathafella]

A week and a half ago HM said, actually warned, that the mid range models were going to suck for a while. They have. 10 days of dry? I don't think that's likely. Anyhow I thought we had something for early/mid week? HPC thought so. So I wait and trust. I reenter the circle of trust.

It's been dry relatively since 1/1. Bone dry for 8 days now save for a tiny amount of snow Monday evening. We're in a vey dry spell and it, like 2004 can last.