Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 In terms of snowfall...it's probably to closer to 2/3rds remaining (climo) than 1/3rd. And most pepple here basically care about snow bottom line. Ironic, climo snowiest time is near. Many a Jan has been a cold dand dry scenario with a tremendous Feb follow up, actually almost a precursor. The Tobin Toaster crew has a point about how their winter has been pretty snowless, does nothing to preclude a strong finish. Things can change on a dime precip wise. It is what it is. No meltdown from me. Hard to meltdown on things you have no control over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Does the Euro have any measurable tomorrow nite? Yes 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I know it's not the historical norm, but I agree with Kevin on December. Lately we need it because we're losing the back innings of winter. My take on what happens in the next 2-3 weeks is we see the mild up next week to whatever degree, a cold down, some potential systems one way or the other (could go way west again or end up near/suppressed), and by about 2-10 to 2/15 we're unloading the pattern. Our best chance for real storminess probably comes as the pattern finally breaks down and we get rid of this stupid PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Does the Euro have any measurable tomorrow nite? Yeah but not much, several hundreths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Always have to hope for a big late turn... 1956 and 1993 being the bench marks. Ironic, climo snowiest time is near. Many a Jan has been a cold dand dry scenario with a tremendous Feb follow up, actually almost a precursor. The Tobin Toaster crew has a point about how their winter has been pretty snowless, does nothing to preclude a strong finish. Things can change on a dime precip wise. It is what it is. No meltdown from me. Hard to meltdown on things you have no control over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So a few hundredths or 1-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So a few hundredths or 1-2? I think its got .08 here Kev, not sure about up there I would assume its a little less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I think its got .08 here Kev, not sure about up there I would assume its a little less. Well, if correct, that gave me my 2" the other day. So maybe i see T-1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 So a few hundredths or 1-2? Who cares. It might be 0.05 which could give an inch. Maybe slightly more...but that type of precip output could easily become 0.01" in reality. A coating to an inch is a good expectation...and don't be shocked if it ends up flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 2002/2003 and 1966 1967 comback years, with 67 being Donnie baseballs analog I like it. 1966-67 9.9 0.5 23.5 22.9 3.3 60.1 2002-03 3.6 9.6 4.2 39.9 8.1 2.3 67.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 So a few hundredths or 1-2? I saw 1-2 inches from .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 The first week of February still looks good for some sort of storm, however, we may have to deal with a similar situation to where the favorable conditions for cyclogenesis are just a bit too far east. Hopefully the northern stream will have a chance to dig deeper and a little further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 02-03 doesn't fit here though because we got nailed (upwards of 3 feet) by the Xmas 02 Northeaster and another 20" storm in January '03. 2002/2003 and 1966 1967 comback years, with 67 being Donnie baseballs analog I like it. 1966-67 9.9 0.5 23.5 22.9 3.3 60.1 2002-03 3.6 9.6 4.2 39.9 8.1 2.3 67.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 2002/2003 and 1966 1967 comback years, with 67 being Donnie baseballs analog I like it. 1966-67 9.9 0.5 23.5 22.9 3.3 60.1 2002-03 3.6 9.6 4.2 39.9 8.1 2.3 67.7 We're trailing by 5 runs with one out in the top of the 6th. We've already stranded a dozen runners and the opposition's closer is lights out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Who cares. It might be 0.05 which could give an inch. Maybe slightly more...but that type of precip output could easily become 0.01" in reality. A coating to an inch is a good expectation...and don't be shocked if it ends up flurries. Grumpy. Close to melt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Looking back at the 2002/2003 snows, odd thing is I remember liking that winter much more than the snow totals show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 What a bust. Massive @MattNoyesNECN: Predictability now high on Fri Night event-survey says winter of snow-lover's discontent continues: http://t.co/kWGg2Krh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 This is why it's time to get excited for severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 We're trailing by 5 runs with one out in the top of the 6th. We've already stranded a dozen runners and the opposition's closer is lights out. No way . You have no faith in your offense in this band box, back to Pawtucket coaching third? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Here's the CPC D8 and D11 GEFS analog patterns....you can see the immense potential just looking at the dates, but you can also see that about 20% of them were duds...something to keep in mind and it matches what many of our thoughts are....favorable going forward, but favorable doesn't guarantee anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 02-03 doesn't fit here though because we got nailed (upwards of 3 feet) by the Xmas 02 Northeaster and another 20" storm in January '03. You did, you are like 250 miles from me though. But yea you guys had a consistent winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I hate analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Here's the CPC D8 and D11 GEFS analog patterns....you can see the immense potential just looking at the dates, but you can also see that about 20% of them were duds...something to keep in mind and it matches what many of our thoughts are....favorable going forward, but favorable doesn't guarantee anything Glad you did this because if I did I would guarantee Scooter would be posting next with a ANAL log. Some people will never understand your disclaimer, it is not even worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Just got off a call....Baltimore area with an inch of snow. Probably more en rout. Boston's in a rut. Cosmic dildo run of the euro with the only qpf showing up in the 10 days for sne a few showers with fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 I hate analogs. I think we all knew this post was coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Ironic, climo snowiest time is near. Many a Jan has been a cold dand dry scenario with a tremendous Feb follow up, actually almost a precursor. The Tobin Toaster crew has a point about how their winter has been pretty snowless, does nothing to preclude a strong finish. Things can change on a dime precip wise. It is what it is. No meltdown from me. Hard to meltdown on things you have no control over. if you mean this January ...I think the majors are still running positive for this month. worth a check - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 BOS gets within 5" of climo by 4/1. You calling that? Would be an epic stretch to make that happen and I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 24, 2013 Author Share Posted January 24, 2013 Glad you did this because if I did I would guarantee Scooter would be posting next with a ANAL log. Some people will never understand your disclaimer, it is not even worth it. Nice to see 03 and 67 in their, lol. We have a chance we just need a role player to step in and start hitting line drives, no need for 3 run homers, but Grand slams are always nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Glad you did this because if I did I would guarantee Scooter would be posting next with a ANAL log. Some people will never understand your disclaimer, it is not even worth it. Most people look at analogs and obsess over the snow...longwave pattern is much more important. The snow part is just about impossible to forecast. You can give probabilistic forecasts on that front, but then the deterministic crowd will get on your back about being too wishy washy and not sticking your neck out on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 24, 2013 Share Posted January 24, 2013 Glad you did this because if I did I would guarantee Scooter would be posting next with a ANAL log. Some people will never understand your disclaimer, it is not even worth it. I know what they mean, but I think some don't understand how to use them. I'm not implicating you.....just saying some get their weenies all stiff when they see those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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