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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left


Ginx snewx

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Looking further out in time, still no signs of sustained blocking.  Despite the indications of a deep Eastern U.S. trough, flow is progressive. 

 

Trough axis - though a bit further west than the current cold shot - still appears too far East to allow for timely storm amplification, especially down here. 

 

It would also be nice to get some southern stream interaction and/or open the Gulf up for business!

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Yes, the Euro is a huge continuity shift for next week... 

 

The reason why is that the previous runs brought a new trough into the west coast of N/A, and maintained its structure as a full-latitude wave, propagating it east across the continent.  This excited cyclogenesis in the western MV region that spun up/deepened into the GL and southern/SE Canada, effectively swashing the eastern 1/3 of the continent in a warm break from winter. 

 

This run is attempting to do what a few cycles of the operational GFS did up until 2 or 3 days ago, and that's to split the trough ...lagging a significant closed feature back into the deep SW; the northern component, post-split trough structure becomes progressive through the GL and NE, effectively damping the warm push before it can get very far N/E.  

 

The tendency for tough splits and progressive N stream has been force fed to us like Homer Simpson on a donut eating machine in hell, so we have a uniquely clear taste for it right now.  I can almost wonder if NCEP will trash this Euro run because of the continuity shift; the irony being (if they do) that the trend seasonally is more toward a scenario like this than the full bore  +4 SD warm sector getting to BUF NY and Maine.   

 

Before anyone gets confused ... this is being interested in Meteorology.  I still maintain that this winter is dead to me.   

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When you think about it and its sad, we have about a month left of winter. That's why I'm so adamant on a good December. If you don't get one man does winter go by quick

 

I agree about December really setting the tone and table of a "good year" of winter production - if you blast away 1/3 of the Met winter, well...

 

By the way, this thread's title of having 2/3rds remains is funny - good spin there

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When you think about it and its sad, we have about a month left of winter. That's why I'm so adamant on a good December. If you don't get one man does winter go by quick

 

Some of this is -PDO driven too, it's not climate change or something like that.

 

Besides, we know how voodoo some forecasts have gone.

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nice second half

 

I hope. KInd of tough to get a sense of where we are going...IOW how stormy. My feeling is that we'll be cold, but brunt of vortex is well NW. That's good for us. I think we may even see a cutter or two over the next few weeks(aside from whatever happens next week)..or at the least...some Jerry tainters.

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When you think about it and its sad, we have about a month left of winter. That's why I'm so adamant on a good December. If you don't get one man does winter go by quick

 

ORH had 18.5" of snow in December....January has been snow starved....the irony.

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ORH had 18.5" of snow in December....January has been snow starved....the irony.

I had a snowy Dec too. But we both know that was packed into a 6 day period at the end of the month. The month overall sucked for winter until a lucky few like you and me got pounded by 2 storms. I wouldn't classify this Decenber as a great wintry month at all.
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Wow, how this pattern is smacking everyone around!   Look at what this operational Euro did to directly impugn NCEP's mid/extended range discussion:

 

"GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD

ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN TREND FASTER WITH THETROF DUE TO FLOW STREAMING SEWD ALONG OR INLAND FROM THE BC COASTHAVING A MORE EWD COMPONENT THAN IN THE 00Z/06Z GFS OR 00Z UKMET.IN ADDITION THE 00Z ECMWF HAS THE MOST AMPLIFIED DEPICTION OFENERGY ROUNDING THE UPSTREAM EPAC RIDGE BY LATE MON INTO TUE.OVER RECENT DAYS THERE HAS BEEN A HINT OF SOME SWWD ELONGATION OFTHE OVERALL TROF EVEN TO THE POINT OF FORMING A CLOSED LOW EVEN IFONLY BRIEFLY.  WHAT OPERATIONAL SOLNS HAD SHOWN THIS IDEAPREVIOUSLY HAVE TRENDED AWAY.  SOME 00Z ENSEMBLE MEMBERS STILLSHOW THIS SCENARIO THOUGH... WITH CMC MEMBERS SHOWING THE HIGHESTPERCENTAGE AND ECMWF MEMBERS THE LOWEST.  TELECONNECTIONS RELATIVETO THE EPAC RIDGE HAVE SUPPORTED SOME SWWD ELONGATION OF THE MEANTROF BUT LATEST D+8 MEANS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE MAY NOT REMAINSUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT TOO MUCH SWWD ELONGATION OF THE WRNTROF.  LESS ELONGATION IN THE 06Z GEFS MEAN VERSUS THE 00Z RUNADDS MODEST SUPPORT TO LEAN AWAY FROM THE SLOWER/AMPLIFIED SIDE OFTHE SPREAD."

 

It's like the operational Euro read this, got insulted ... said f you and elongated the trough so much that it split the flow!  

 

The only thing that certain is uncertainty ;) 

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what's our best combo +PDO and +AMO?

 

 

Mixed results there....thats a 1920s/1930s and late 1990s/first half of 2000s pattern. All in all, it was kind of sucky, though the early 2000s produced some pretty awesome winters. There were a couple epic ones in the 1930s too hidden within the parade of garbage.

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I had a snowy Dec too. But we both know that was packed into a 6 day period at the end of the month. The month overall sucked for winter until a lucky few like you and me got pounded by 2 storms. I wouldn't classify this Decenber as a great wintry month at all.

 

 

I'm simply stating that it was snowy. Yeah it sucked for 3 weeks before that. January 2011 needs to be put away in the archives....those months are historic for a reason, they don't happen very often.

 

We want a wet pattern over cold. Hopefully we can grab something before January ends and February stops rolling snake eyes. We look to have a decent longwave pattern in February. So we'll see.

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In terms of snowfall...it's probably to closer to 2/3rds remaining (climo) than 1/3rd.

 

And most pepple here basically care about snow bottom line.

I agree about December really setting the tone and table of a "good year" of winter production - if you blast away 1/3 of the Met winter, well...

 

By the way, this thread's title of having 2/3rds remains is funny - good spin there

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