Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 GGEM a little faster, tries to get us overnight on the 31st into the 1st. Develops a system kind of on the back edge of the front as it moves offshore. Doesn't surprise me that the GFS lost it, kind of expected as I said earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Spins up into a nice system. We'll see how it carries forward, but I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Man Chicago rape has finally ended after a year @breakingstorm: Chicago logs 1.1 inches of snow at O'Hare airport, ending record streak of 335 snowless days - National Weather Service http://t.co/cTn7PsvB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 5:13 PM, Rollo Tomasi said: Spins up into a nice system. We'll see how it carries forward, but I like it. That's the 00z run. Though the 12z run still ends up working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:58 PM, danstorm said: Heather Archie fetish? She beautiful... j/k - yeah, I don't know if it would qualify this time, but on a purely conceptual level, her research to me ...kind of was like using statistical science to point out common sense. Intuitively, if you are in a static temperature and thermodynamic mode in your local region (synoptic scale) and then perturbed that domain space by incurring a new air mass, well ... duh, things are going to happen. It's really not complicated. Though the research she did is hugely needed because people/science want/need proof, proof, proof. Anyway, that's the simple model. A full latitude trough migration and bomb up into eastern Canada might just shake thing up enough to introduce a phase change - and subsequently activity. Or, maybe something like at GGEMer can happen. Nice long duration event that would go a long way toward adjusting locale's seasonal snowfall totals, upward, without having to suffer all the growing pains. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 5:18 PM, ORH_wxman said: That's the 00z run. Though the 12z run still ends up working out. Eh, that's real ugly and weird ...as in, not really looking. It's got wave space interference galore through every interval and ends up with a low that seems more like a default pivot point while the run figures out how to clean up its huge mess aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 5:26 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Eh, that's real ugly and weird ...as in, not really looking. It's got wave space interference galore through every interval and ends up with a low that seems more like a default pivot point while the run figures out how to clean up its huge mess aloft. I wasn't counting on the GGEM solution FYI. Yeah its a mess in the upper air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 5:18 PM, ORH_wxman said: That's the 00z run. Though the 12z run still ends up working out. Yeah, fail on trying to copy and paste. This was the one I was looking for. Can tell there's the tug between trying to develop something ON the front and later, GGEM tries both which is ugly and unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Seems entirely unlikely it plays out like this, but it does highlight the possibility of one or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 The DGEX at 06z had a similarly ugly looking snow event...probably not the best model company the GGEM wants to have in this instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:39 PM, OSUmetstud said: We've only gotten a few inches in this cold snap...about 4" on the month...it's bad when your heaviest snow rate of the year is from a northerly flow squall from lake ontario (yesterday). Not just there. I've had 7 events with measurable snow this month, one 4.0" snowfall with the other 6 totaling 1.5". My least snowy of 14 previous Januarys here is 7.7" in 2004, which is also my coldest month during that period - major suppression. Given the forecasts/models, I see a 75% chance, at least, of setting a new snowfall low this month, with only some possible front-end glop next week, and I don't see 2"+ coming from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 5:32 PM, ORH_wxman said: The DGEX at 06z had a similarly ugly looking snow event...probably not the best model company the GGEM wants to have in this instance. Eh, evolving situation. The GGEM has overdone every single one of these scrapers at around this range but it's often had the general threat before others. So, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 5:34 PM, Rollo Tomasi said: Eh, evolving situation. The GGEM has overdone every single one of these scrapers at around this range but it's often had the general threat before others. So, we'll see. Well the event threat is there...just I doubt it looks like the way the GGEM/DGEX show it. Euro has the threat too, just about 12 hours later and it uses some southern stream energy to enhance the trough...the GGEM is using solely northern stream energy. Obviously its so far out that all these solutions are going to look drastically different in another couple days even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 5:37 PM, ORH_wxman said: Well the event threat is there...just I doubt it looks like the way the GGEM/DGEX show it. Euro has the threat too, just about 12 hours later and it uses some southern stream energy to enhance the trough...the GGEM is using solely northern stream energy. Obviously its so far out that all these solutions are going to look drastically different in another couple days even. I'd like to see the Euro ramp it up a bit. My guess is a few GEFS members must have something based on the precip way back in the cold sector. Nogaps looks like the GFS which is probably a good indication the GFS is wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 5:38 PM, Rollo Tomasi said: I'd like to see the Euro ramp it up a bit. My guess is a few GEFS members must have something based on the precip way back in the cold sector. Nogaps looks like the GFS which is probably a good indication the GFS is wrong. GEFS are an unmitigated disaster when ti comes to any type of agreement over the front next week...some have it clearing our area a full 24-30 hours before the OP run. Its laugable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 I think the cold blast after whatever snow we get next week could actually be colder and longer lasting than the one this week. There is growing support for that as we move closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 5:41 PM, ORH_wxman said: GEFS are an unmitigated disaster when ti comes to any type of agreement over the front next week...some have it clearing our area a full 24-30 hours before the OP run. Its laugable. Good. I like the uncertainty and total lack of consensus. I figured something was up just based on the 12 hour QPF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Someone could make a fortune if they made T-shirts with the slogan "We Toss" on it. Possibly with a giant hot dog on the other side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 6:06 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Someone could make a fortune if they made T-shirts with the slogan "We Toss" on it. Possibly with a giant hot dog on the other side. Or an 18z GFS image with a storm missing OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 OP Euro leaves a front draped from the BM to the Gulf of Mexico now. I like it. Much different than last run, probably not there yet but its' developing a wave off the Carolinas at 144 hours, 12 hours ago the front was gone and there was a wave forming in texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Interesting.... Brownville Texas could flirt with 100F on D5, on this Euro run ...impending super storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 6:30 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Interesting.... Brownville Texas could flirt with 100F on D5, on this Euro run ...impending super storm? Interesting pattern setups up end of the month. Euro OP misses on almost two systems...looks like it's got an initial wave on the front well out ahead of the one that emerges from the Gulf and misses. It's a decent look, broad weakness extends back to the Lakes. Same tug of war as the CMC just not as extreme. Probably a day or so from more clarity but happy to see the Euro totally come off the crappy suppressed follow up wave. I'll take my chances with a cold shot digging to the GOM and a front offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 6:37 PM, Rollo Tomasi said: Interesting pattern setups up end of the month. Euro OP misses on almost two systems...looks like it's got an initial wave on the front well out ahead of the one that emerges from the Gulf and misses. It's a decent look, broad weakness extends back to the Lakes. Same tug of war as the CMC just not as extreme. Probably a day or so from more clarity but happy to see the Euro totally come off the crappy suppressed follow up wave. I'll take my chances with a cold shot digging to the GOM and a front offshore. Agree with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 6:39 PM, dryslot said: Agree with this Change that to a front along the coast, not off-shore, and I'd agree lol. Cold and dry after the thaw seems most likely. Not sure why we'd see a ramp up in QPF events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Once again Euro kind of meh on mild up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 going forward the next two weeks i think we'll be in a cold regime and we'll have our chances, there is def wintery appeal over the next 10-14 days. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 20th anniversary of the '93 Supercutter this year. :> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 6:06 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Someone could make a fortune if they made T-shirts with the slogan "We Toss" on it. Possibly with a giant hot dog on the other side. I am thinking, "Drink till the NAM is pretty." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 7:11 PM, cpick79 said: going forward the next two weeks i think we'll be in a cold regime and we'll have our chances, there is def wintery appeal over the next 10-14 days. lolz Yeah, 2nd week in February is looking like another cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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