Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Frankly I'd rather the full latitude warm up by the GFS, and I am not saying that merely because I've decided to close the book early on this winter as of late. If you are snow enthusiast, you want that. If you area cold dry non-event ennui enthusiast, you want the Euro. If the full-latitude idea transpires, that's usually prelude to -NAO type of deal. This is because WAA delivers a big dose of higher heights up N; this can excite at least a temporary blocking period. Often time snow events book end negative NAOs, on the way in and/or out of the negative phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:18 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: i'd almost welcome the GFS just to get a storm to move across the region. not boring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:21 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: actually that would probably be a really fun time for both of them.Yeah , what I was envisioning was Ryan is the driver and Tip had the laptop and radar going and is navigating the route thru cornfields and high desert plains as they scope out towering CU off to the North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:18 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: i'd almost welcome the GFS just to get a storm to move across the region. Looks like a low amplitude phase 7 response, which matches the current state and progged phase as per GFS/GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 is it any coincidence that most of the agw "skeptics" on this forum are big time cold and snow mongers? c'mon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:21 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: actually that would probably be a really fun time for both of them. Phil and Kevin are gay ...not that there is anything wrong with that of course - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:21 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: actually that would probably be a really fun time for both of them.Yeah , what I was envisioning was Ryan is the driver and Tip had the laptop and radar going and is navigating the route thru cornfields and high desert plains as they scope out towering CU off to the North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Lol I don't even know where to go with this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:20 PM, CT Rain said: I can't take vacation in may so I'm stuck with early June. Probably flying into Denver and doing the high plains or whatever looks best. NE on north FTW. Even last year...the chasers did have sone success so it's not always a fail even with a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:26 PM, CT Rain said: Lol I don't even know where to go with this thread. It was a simple question and Kevin has to turn everything into an innuendo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:24 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Frankly I'd rather the full latitude warm up by the GFS, and I am not saying that merely because I've decided to close the book early on this winter as of late. If you are snow enthusiast, you want that. If you area cold dry non-event ennui enthusiast, you want the Euro. If the full-latitude idea transpires, that's usually prelude to -NAO type of deal. This is because WAA delivers a big dose of higher heights up N; this can excite at least a temporary blocking period. Often time snow events book end negative NAOs, on the way in and/or out of the negative phase. 100% agree aside of closing the book on winter. I think even after the pattern spins out we'll have our shots. Heck we got snow in a 25 day warm period earlier...and maybe we get a big one. Let's get a major storm sweeping across the country and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said: It was a simple question and Kevin has to turn everything into an innuendoHuh? Asking if you'd like to chase Tors out west is an innuendo? If you can't go just say so instead of lashing out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 12z GFS, 80-90kt+ winds at 925mb with the cutter next week. 90-100kts at 900mb. over SE Mass: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:22 PM, OSUmetstud said: good lord at the depth of that low on the gfs...951mb over Quebec. mild up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:29 PM, Typhoon Tip said: It was a simple question and Kevin has to turn everything into an innuendo He was hitting things from behind this morning, so.... I just think it's mostly projection and repressed feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:32 PM, Rollo Tomasi said: mild up? it's going to be quite warm before that if it verifies...but then a fairly cold after...obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:31 PM, CT Blizz said: Huh? Asking if you'd like to chase Tors out west is an innuendo? If you can't go just say so instead of lashing out Whateva dude - nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:33 PM, OSUmetstud said: it's going to be quite warm before that if it verifies...but then a fairly cold after...obviously. How's the LES been going? BTW you nailed it with the real money/lobbyists earlier in the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:37 PM, HM said: How's the LES been going? BTW you nailed it with the real money/lobbyists earlier in the thread. ****ty here...but nice for ESE of Erie and Ontario. I think Fair Haven/Fulton had almost 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:33 PM, OSUmetstud said: it's going to be quite warm before that if it verifies...but then a fairly cold after...obviously. Yeah things look promising 10 days from now, Gulf starts to open up. GFS says no mas on the 31-2. Just ten more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 We've only gotten a few inches in this cold snap...about 4" on the month...it's bad when your heaviest snow rate of the year is from a northerly flow squall from lake ontario (yesterday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Does the phase bomb have support? or is the weaker solution by the EC favored? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:28 PM, CoastalWx said: NE on north FTW. Even last year...the chasers did have sone success so it's not always a fail even with a ridge. Yeah I've gone through the last 10 years for that June window on the SPC storm event archive and it looks like there's always something going on in the high plains and then the occasional outbreak in KS/NE/SD/ND. I spoke with Ian and he said it's not the greatest time but it's not bad and the high plains/june are some of the most photogenic storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:40 PM, OSUmetstud said: Does the phase bomb have support? or is the weaker solution by the EC favored? A GWO orbit into phase 8-1 would promote more separation but good luck trying to time these things out to the day. I also wouldn't say the "euro bias" is at play either since we've seen this game before and the ECMWF ended up being correct. Then again, we have awesome cyclonic wave breaking going on in the N PAC and these will be capable of full latitude troughs (-AAM has effectively propagated to 50-60N from their easterlies). So, to answer your question, I have no freakin' idea. Sorry to hear about your lack of snow still. Good thing is you have another chance on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:40 PM, OSUmetstud said: Does the phase bomb have support? or is the weaker solution by the EC favored? HPC's discussion is just out and they seem to still be blending the 0z ensembles. They do suggest a possible significant rain event Tues-Wed in the east. They also suggest good les mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:45 PM, mahk_webstah said: HPC's discussion is just out and they seem to still be blending the 0z ensembles. They do suggest a possible significant rain event Tues-Wed in the east. They also suggest good les mid week. there should be good les somewhere not sure if it will be here...i'd favor east and southeast of the lakes at the moment but that could change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 4:24 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Often time snow events book end negative NAOs, on the way in and/or out of the negative phase. Heather Archie fetish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 Only in these past two winters can be be bludgeoned with all of this arctic air, yet only have a flurry and a rain event to show for it. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 25, 2013 Share Posted January 25, 2013 On 1/25/2013 at 5:07 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Only in these past two winters can be be bludgeoned with all of this arctic air, yet only have a flurry and a rain event to show for it. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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