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January 17th-18th Winter Storm Observations


WilkesboroDude

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20 degree drop in the past hour, from mid-70's to now a chilly 55.0 & Rain

 

 

Near term /through tonight/...
as of 2 PM Thursday...wrapped up middle level cyclone now speeding
off to the northeast in central Georgia with the surface cyclone
just ahead.


Broad deformation zone forcing in the 700-500mb layer via the GFS
should begin to light up the area quickly late this afternoon with
the best of this forcing moving across between 0000 and 0600.
Thermal profiles have warmed slightly with the latest guidance most
notably on the NAM where the warming has manifested itself in
numerical guidance lows of an increase of some four degrees. BUFKIT
profiles show little chance for ice nuclei in the clouds from about
0600 Onward when thermal profiles might support freezing
precipitation. Still...with the inherited forecast advertising a
little mix...didn/T want to remove entirely. I did use a threshold
temperature of 37 degrees to add a mix of snow and ice pellets from
0600 Onward. This worked out perfectly with a slight decrease in
coverage from the previous forecast. Otherwise...continued to fine
tune probability of precipitation for the afternoon hours as the coastal areas begrudgingly
hold onto sunny skies and highs in the 70s.


&&


Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
as of 2 PM Thursday...winter is back. It will be a chilly and
brisk start to the day Friday as the pressure gradient will remain
rather tight between strong high pressure across the Ohio and
Tennessee valleys and low pressure intensifying southeast of New England.
The gradient will slacken through the afternoon and wind
gusts...up to 25 to 30 miles per hour...will diminish. Chilly temperatures Friday
morning...especially in comparison to recent days...coupled with
the wind...will make it feel as if it were in the middle 20s to lower
30s. Even with bright sunshine...temperatures are not expected to rise
quickly as 850 mb temperatures will start the day just below zero degree.
Previous thinking has not changed and will forecast highs below 50
degrees in most places...with middle 40s most common. Good
radiational cooling is expected Friday night as high pressure reaches
the area. Clear skies and virtually calm wind will allow evening temperatures
to quickly drop as dewpoints during this time will be well down in
the 20s. Overnight lows are expected to reach the middle and upper
20s with some lower 20s where radiational cooling maximizes
longest.
 

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Basically, this is how things unfolded in Kingsport.  We left the hospital w/ our newborn(#4).  Heavy sleet and snow were following.  The mulch began showing some signs of accumulation.  Ten minutes later and one mile from the house, the roads were snow covered and a half inch of snow was on the ground.  Got in the house.  Over a ten minute period, saw three flashes of lightning followed by three rolling claps of thunder(not transformers, way too loud).  Snow fell from 2:00 - 5:30(approximately) and we have five inches of snow on the ground.  Folks on FB in Kingsport have similar amounts, less as you go southeast.  Basically, all snow has stopped.  Roads are snow covered.  The wind is blowing to 15-20 mph in the treetops.  I'll post pics later.  W/ high winds tonight and snow covered trees, power will become an issue.  Best wishes to the rest of you in the path of the low. Honestly, I thought we were washed up when looking at the RAP model...then it started showing the deformation band about two hours before the event.

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34 over 33 with big flakes, rain, etc...change over coming soon if you are just to my east. But it is not sticking yet.

What part of wilkes county are you in? North Southern? .. Im just south in Alexander county so just wondering. If snow levels start dropping from your elevation i'll be the next to know i bet.

 

 

 

At the current time very heavy rain still falling here, temp is at about 38.

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What part of wilkes county are you in? North Southern? .. Im just south in Alexander county so just wondering. If snow levels start dropping from your elevation i'll be the next to know i bet.

 

 

 

At the current time very heavy rain still falling here, temp is at about 38.

 

North central part of Wilkes. 

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