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January 17th-18th Winter Storm Observations


WilkesboroDude

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HUGE bust.  GSP kept updating my forecasted totals yesterday until I was up to 5.5" by the time it started snowing.  I got about half an inch.  It did get much colder this morning than forecast. 23.

 

GSP kept lowering the snow totals for Asheville during the day; then inexplicably raised them slightly during the evening as everything was coming to a halt.  Big fat zero for Asheville; hopefully we will not be reduced to dustings from NW flow events the rest of the winter and early spring.  Anyway glad to see the sun today; been too much of this lately: :underthewx:

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This is a great example of why this is the place to get fast updates on local weather. GSP forecasts for a large area and does a great job. However, AFD come out what 4 times a day. They will put out more disco during system such as yesterday. At least for my area (southern Foothills HWY74 corridor) the nail got larger as we moved into the early afternoon yesterday. As stated by beanskip in another thread here at AMWX, the hourly models begin to say, whoa big fellow. Hard pill to take. 

I have seen GSP go crazy with snow totals before and bust super low. Either way, what a crazy system.

 

I did my best not to get excited.. But by Wednesday night I thought, this is going to happen. The moral of the story use to be, 24 hours out in the south. Well, for us non met folks... Lets go with 12 hours out.

 

Welcome to AMWX BTW. Post often!!!

 

GSP kept lowering the snow totals for Asheville during the day; then inexplicably raised them slightly during the evening as everything was coming to a halt.  Big fat zero for Asheville; hopefully we will not be reduced to dustings from NW flow events the rest of the winter and early spring.  Anyway glad to see the sun today; been too much of this lately: :underthewx:

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^^lol at face expressions.

 

Yep, even though I did get at least two distinct rumbles of thunder and a brief period of moderate to moderate plus rates, not much accumulation. Enough however for a few kids to enjoy sledding down the crusty icy hillside this morning, although it with grass blades showing through the snow.

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I did my best not to get excited.. But by Wednesday night I thought, this is going to happen. The moral of the story use to be, 24 hours out in the south. Well, for us non met folks... Lets go with 12 hours out.

 

Things looked good here 12 hours out. It was more like 2 hours out when things started to change for the worse.

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This is a great example of why this is the place to get fast updates on local weather. GSP forecasts for a large area and does a great job. However, AFD come out what 4 times a day. They will put out more disco during system such as yesterday. At least for my area (southern Foothills HWY74 corridor) the nail got larger as we moved into the early afternoon yesterday. As stated by beanskip in another thread here at AMWX, the hourly models begin to say, whoa big fellow. Hard pill to take. 

I have seen GSP go crazy with snow totals before and bust super low. Either way, what a crazy system.

 

I did my best not to get excited.. But by Wednesday night I thought, this is going to happen. The moral of the story use to be, 24 hours out in the south. Well, for us non met folks... Lets go with 12 hours out.

 

Welcome to AMWX BTW. Post often!!!

 

I know a lot of people are going to upset at GSP but it was the right call for them to make. Obviously it was extremely difficult to predict. One example is how just 10 miles to my south had a dusting of snow, while I stayed pretty much all rain with just some snow mixed in. To my north also a dusting. Now how do you predict that exactly? How do you predict a warm nose will come twenty miles east? You can't, so you go with what you do know is most likely to happen. The real beauty of a storm like this is that if it had been just a touch colder we would have been slammed...sadly we ended up on the other end of the scale. Like rolling the dice in Vegas and the odds are against you, you still do it because the win is big. It sucked last night but at least I always felt like this was always a big roll. 

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For the GA peeps I have a clear view of Woody Gap (3,300 ft), Blood Mountain (4,000 ft) and the mountains north of Helen GA.  I see no snow anywhere.

 

 

Wow!  I was contemplating heading up to Pickens to see if I could chase some.   Glad I didn't, I would have figured above 3k you would have gotten something.

 

The models pretty much nailed it for north GA IMO.  Never really showed much if any frozen at all.

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No doubt. My total for yesterday was 2.41"!!! Would have been epic..

But yes, GSP did as they needed to do.

For any new folks around here, bookmark this page and learn how to use it. It will help you out greatly with now casting!!

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

 

 

I know a lot of people are going to upset at GSP but it was the right call for them to make. Obviously it was extremely difficult to predict. One example is how just 10 miles to my south had a dusting of snow, while I stayed pretty much all rain with just some snow mixed in. To my north also a dusting. Now how do you predict that exactly? How do you predict a warm nose will come twenty miles east? You can't, so you go with what you do know is most likely to happen. The real beauty of a storm like this is that if it had been just a touch colder we would have been slammed...sadly we ended up on the other end of the scale. Like rolling the dice in Vegas and the odds are against you, you still do it because the win is big. It sucked last night but at least I always felt like this was always a big roll. 

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No doubt. My total for yesterday was 2.41"!!! Would have been epic..

But yes, GSP did as they needed to do.

For any new folks around here, bookmark this page and learn how to use it. It will help you out greatly with now casting!!

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

Or here! http://www.daculaweather.com/4_spc_meso_analysis.php

Take a look on Mt. Washington this morning:  http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mt_washington.php

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No doubt. My total for yesterday was 2.41"!!! Would have been epic..

But yes, GSP did as they needed to do.

For any new folks around here, bookmark this page and learn how to use it. It will help you out greatly with now casting!!

http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/

 

I will give it to GSP because they never bought in to this system being a big producer for the valleys; so based on their forecast Asheville should have had about 1" but wound up with a few flakes; not too bad a miss and of course very difficult to forecast in the mountains.

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Lucky...I can testify to the incredible rates because I was driving on 421 at 1800 yesterday about 10 miles outside of Boone and it was pouring snow...unfortunately, I couldn't make up there because the roads were already snow covered

Ended up with around 7"...great storm. The rates were incredible around 1800 yesterday.

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