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January 17th-18th Winter Storm Observations


WilkesboroDude

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OK... I'm now falling at 3º/hr with NNW winds. Preconditioning if you will... :-)

I like using this map http://www.daculaweather.com/current/misc/google-maps-radar/4_google_radar.php

 

Click on "Radar" and "Animate" and a little further down the page, click on station markers and make sure it's set to temp. Then zoom in!

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RAH still on-board:

 

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...

THROUGH TONIGHT: CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN THE OCCURRENCE OF
SIGNIFICANT BANDED SNOWFALL OVER NRN AND WRN PORTIONS OF NC EARLY
THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE... LOCATED OVER NE GA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON... WILL CONTINUE A STEADY ENE TRACK ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS SE NC. THE NAM/GFS/RAP/SREF MEAN HAVE EXHIBITED EXCELLENT
CONTINUITY THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS REGARDING TRACK AND TIMING... AND
HAVE SHOWN A VERY SMALL SOUTHWARD TREND IN THE EXTENT OF COLDER AIR.

DYNAMIC LIFT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE EXTREMELY STRONG -- ESPECIALLY
ALOFT WITH HIGH OMEGA FOCUSED IN THE CRUCIAL -12C TO -20C LAYER
ALOFT -- BUT QUICK-HITTING. AN INTENSE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAX EXPECTED
TO BE ROUGHLY OVER THE SRN NC FOOTHILLS AT 00Z WILL MOVE NE THROUGH
CENTRAL NC BEFORE EXITING NE SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY AROUND 07Z. THIS
IS IN TANDEM WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE... MID
LEVEL DCVA AND A RISE/FALL COUPLET OF AROUND +/- 200 METERS...
STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION... AND DEEP MOIST ISENTROPIC
UPGLIDE. THE FACT THAT THIS SYSTEM IS STRENGTHENING QUICKLY UPON
ARRIVAL IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLING IN THAT THE RESULTANT RAPID MASS
FIELD ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIABLE TO SIGNIFICANT AND QUICKLY BOLSTER
ASCENT AND HEIGHTEN THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE SNOW BANDING.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL GENERALLY NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH VERY HIGH
PW (OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AND A STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM
THE GULF... ALTHOUGH THE INCOMING DRY SLOT ON THE SE SIDE OF THE LOW
WILL BE WORTH MONITORING AND MAY LIMIT WINTRY TOTALS IN THE
SOUTHEAST CWA (SEE BELOW). HOW FAST THE COLD AIR ARRIVES ESPECIALLY
ALOFT REMAINS A CONCERN... ALTHOUGH THE MODELS INITIALIZED WELL AND
ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT... BOOSTING CONFIDENCE IN THEIR TIMING OF
THE ANTICIPATED THERMAL CHANGES.

THE HEAVIEST SNOW BANDING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER THE WRN AND NRN
PIEDMONT... FROM HIGH ROCK AND BADIN LAKES... ACROSS THE I-40 AND
HIGHWAY 64 CORRIDORS BETWEEN (AND INCLUDING) THE TRIAD AND THE
TRIANGLE... UP TO KERR LAKE AND LAKE GASTON... VERY ROUGHLY
FOLLOWING THE I-85 CORRIDOR TO THE NW... ALIGNED WITH THE AREA OF
STRONGEST DEFORMATION ALOFT. KEY TIMING STILL LOOKS TO BE FROM 23Z
UNTIL AROUND 07Z WITH A QUICK EXIT SOON THEREAFTER. SREF
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A 70+ PERCENT
CHANCE OF SNOWFALL RATES OVER ONE INCH PER HOUR ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PIEDMONT AND FAR NRN COASTAL PLAIN FROM MID EVENING UNTIL THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THESE RATES AND THE TIMING OF A FEW HOURS OF
HEAVY BANDED SNOW (STARTING AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX)... STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES IN THIS AREA WITH ISOLATED 5 INCH TOTALS
LOOK QUITE REASONABLE. BORDERING THE WARNING AREA... STILL EXPECT AN
INCH OR SO OF ACCUMULATION MAINLY ON GRASSY AREAS... WITH A LITTLE
SLUSH ON ROADS POSSIBLE.

SOUTH AND EAST OF HERE... INCLUDING FAYETTEVILLE AND CLINTON... A
QUICK BURST OF MAINLY SNOW IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING
THROUGH THE COLUMN AS THE LOW ALOFT PASSES BY... BUT THE WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY WILL BE VERY SHORT AS AMOUNTS/DURATION WILL BE GREATLY
LIMITED BY THE MID-UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVAL WITH NOTABLE DRYING
ABOVE THE -5C LEVEL... SUPPRESSING CRYSTAL GROWTH ALOFT... PLUS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS SHOULD HOLD ABOVE FREEZING FOR MUCH OF THIS
EVENT... NOT DROPPING TO NEAR FREEZING UNTIL PRECIP IS NEARLY GONE.
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF A DUSTING CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS.

A SIDE NOTE: MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PROGS ARE QUITE INTERESTING...
INCLUDING THE 12 KM NAM WHICH INDICATES 850-500 MB VALUES OF 5.5-6.0
C/KM TRAVERSING THE CWA... JUST WNW OF THE 850 MB LOW TRACK...
PRIMARILY BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z. AND RECENT RAP RUNS TAKE THE 700-400
MB LAPSE RATES (WHICH CAPTURES THE MIXED PHASE REGION ALOFT) UP TO
7.0 C/KM OVER THE NW PIEDMONT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. CONSIDERING THIS
POSSIBILITY FOR UPRIGHT INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VIGOROUS DYNAMIC
LIFT... A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WITHIN SNOW BANDS ARE CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH LIKELY TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME.

STRENGTHENING WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE AS WELL WITH THE TIGHTENING
MSLP GRADIENT AS THE LOW APPROACHES. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25-40 KTS (ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS MAY BE AUGMENTED BY A
POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE). EXPECT A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25
MPH WITH SPORADIC GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH FROM LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL
AROUND 1-2 AM.

TEMPS SHOULD STEADILY DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. -GIH

&&


 

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Just skyped with my sister in Birmingham. Light snow at the moment and just a dusting in the grassy. When that band starts coming through in a hour or so I'll post some screenshots if I can.

 

Here we are stuck at 44. Temp actually ticked up a bit over the last few minutes :(

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From a friend near Roanoke on Fb:

Sleet for the last 45 mins and now BIG FAT snow flakes coming down fast! I'm in Bradshaw Valley(below MacAfee's Knob) in Salem.(VA)

 

I can confirm that it's been sleeting. I haven't seen a change over IMBY yet. Currently 36*

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