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January 17th-18th Winter Storm Observations


WilkesboroDude

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Hang in there!

Two more lessons:

1)I'm not going to let people call me a "negative nancy" just because I'm calling it like I see it.

2) If the RPM says you're not getting snow 3 hours before the event -- PACK IT IN!!!!

 

The problem is the RPM was going gangbusters for us to get snow this morning.  So when is it right and when is it wrong?  All your other points I'm with you on.  Biggest thing for me...what's the surface temps progged to be?  I think it's simple as that.  Dynamics, "making it's own cold", change over, etc are all unicorns in the south...like SSWs. 

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Nothing here yet Burger.

 

 

If anyone "deserves" a nice bout of snow, it's you for all of your dedication and play by play model analysis.

 

Still plenty of winter left, though.

 

 

We are all pulling for you Burger!!!

 

 

lol wow thanks! Flakes are mixing in. Friend on FB just said there are big fat flakes about 5 miles down the road. 

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Absolutely pouring snow in Apex, I am roughly near Chatham/Wake/Durham county line.  Should be covered grass soon.  I am surprised RAH dropped totals from 2-4 to 1-3".  Maybe the band will weaken quicker than they originally thought.  RAP has snow in RDU through midnight.

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they havent updated their forecast since this afternoon and the snow grid on their facebook actually increased some from this morning..

Absolutely pouring snow in Apex, I am roughly near Chatham/Wake/Durham county line.  Should be covered grass soon.  I am surprised RAH dropped totals from 2-4 to 1-3".  Maybe the band will weaken quicker than they originally thought.  RAP has snow in RDU through midnight.

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Got 7" of rain this week...no snow..no storms in the LR. Maybe year 3 will bring us back to average?? As expected ULL are very hard to forecast and wouldnt want the job of a met!  So you want hear "epic fail" or "total bust" out of me! No surprise here as without a CAD my confidence is always low for snow chances! The only guarantee around here is that a warm bubble or nose will be present on the lee side in these events and NW SC will be in it! So many get bent out of shape when they dont get dumped on but ya gotta realize there are many more that have been left out over the last 2 years...as some have said "it's weather" you got no choice but to take it or move to siberia!  I look at it like this, no power loss, no tree on my house or truck!

Congrats to the few who got what they thought or wanted! Be careful in the morning folks it'll be slick in places.

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Yeah, that was mainly a joke -- don't know much about the RPM, but boy it sure pulled the plug! Meanwhile, the RAP STILL wants to give me 2 inches before midnight! No way around the fact that the GFS never got there (for me at least) on surface temps -- insisting that they would never get below 35-36 while precip was falling (which it didn't).

The problem is the RPM was going gangbusters for us to get snow this morning.  So when is it right and when is it wrong?  All your other points I'm with you on.  Biggest thing for me...what's the surface temps progged to be?  I think it's simple as that.  Dynamics, "making it's own cold", change over, etc are all unicorns in the south...like SSWs. 

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Brad just hit it right on.. "All snow now amounts 1" or less. #cltwx" 

 

Even here, GSP moved us up to 6" earlier in the snow map

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/stormtotal/StormTotalSnowFcst.png

 

Now latest notice they sent out at 8:49pm says 

"

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...ALONG WITH
AROUND A TRACE OF ICE. AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 COULD SEE
AMOUNTS RANGE BETWEEN 5 TO 7 INCHES."

 

There is just no way, even as recent as that was posted.. the backedge is here, you can easily tell by those "dry slots" you see developing from wilkes down to alexander moving south. At best an inch with whats left of for here. 

 

 

As hky said earlier, insane micro climate here.

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Not a total bust but a bust nonetheless .

Good post!

Got 7" of rain this week...no snow..no storms in the LR. Maybe year 3 will bring us back to average?? As expected ULL are very hard to forecast and wouldnt want the job of a met! So you want hear "epic fail" or "total bust" out of me! No surprise here as without a CAD my confidence is always low for snow chances! The only guarantee around here is that a warm bubble or nose will be present on the lee side in these events and NW SC will be in it! So many get bent out of shape when they dont get dumped on but ya gotta realize there are many more that have been left out over the last 2 years...as some have said "it's weather" you got no choice but to take it or move to siberia! I look at it like this, no power loss, no tree on my house or truck!

Congrats to the few who got what they thought or wanted! Be careful in the morning folks it'll be slick in places.

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