bluewave Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The PNA pattern this year is very similar to 54-55, 65-66, 84-85, 08-09, and 10-11. Those years all featured a -PNA in December shifting to positive for January like we are seeing this year. December 2012 December composite The models are forecasting a PNA spike next week which will be associated with the coldest temperatures of the season here so far. January 2013 so far January composite This type of pattern switched back to a more negative PNA pattern in all the analog years for the month of February. February composite The February temperatures were mostly above normal here. February snowfall NYC 1955....5.2 1966...9.8 1985..10.0 2009...4.3 2011...4.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The PNA pattern this year is very similar to 54-55, 65-66, 84-85, 08-09, and 10-11. Those years all featured a -PNA in December shifting to positive for January like we are seeing this year. December 2012 DEC12.png December composite DEC.png The models are forecasting a PNA spike next week which will be associated with the coldest temperatures of the season here so far. pna.sprd2.gif January 2013 so far 13.gif January composite JAN.png This type of pattern switched back to a more negative PNA pattern in all the analog years for the month of February. February composite FEB.png The February temperatures were mostly above normal here. FEBT.png Actulally showing about 1 above normal which will probably make it the coldest and perhaps best winter month this year. February snowfall NYC 1955....5.2 1966...9.8 1985..10.0 2009...4.3 2011...4.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 HM thinks the -EPO block will stick around for most of February, with a consistent trough in the East. I don't think we're going to see a strong SE ridge in February by any stretch of the imagination, and it could be our best month. Definitely a strong possibility for this to be a comeback winter with a cold/snowy 2nd half of January into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Good post bluewave. I agree that the PNA should return to a more negative state in February, as a Nov-Dec -PNA strongly correlates to the winter DJF -PNA overall, given the -PDO backdrop as well. However, I always thought this winter would feature 1 solid month of +PNA and it appears Jan will be that month. With regards to the EPO, I think we'll see that index continue generally negative throughout February, and when coupled with a -AO/NAO, should yield a much cooler Northeast than we saw in December. The November -EPO was a strong foreteller of a DJF -EPO overall, and again one month was likely to be +EPO, obviously it was December. If a -EPO/-PNA/-AO/-PNA pattern occurs for February, that could be quite a cold one for much of the nation. Will be interesting to see how the second half of this winter transpires. Should be much different than the first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 HM thinks the -EPO block will stick around for most of February, with a consistent trough in the East. I don't think we're going to see a strong SE ridge in February by any stretch of the imagination, and it could be our best month. Definitely a strong possibility for this to be a comeback winter with a cold/snowy 2nd half of January into February. Good post bluewave. I agree that the PNA should return to a more negative state in February, as a Nov-Dec -PNA strongly correlates to the winter DJF -PNA overall, given the -PDO backdrop as well. However, I always thought this winter would feature 1 solid month of +PNA and it appears Jan will be that month. With regards to the EPO, I think we'll see that index continue generally negative throughout February, and when coupled with a -AO/NAO, should yield a much cooler Northeast than we saw in December. The November -EPO was a strong foreteller of a DJF -EPO overall, and again one month was likely to be +EPO, obviously it was December. If a -EPO/-PNA/-AO/-PNA pattern occurs for February, that could be quite a cold one for much of the nation. Will be interesting to see how the second half of this winter transpires. Should be much different than the first. It will be interesting to see how things work out in February. But we can still see a good start to the month before the pattern changes if the analogs hold up. Our only cold Februaries here over the last decade have been during El Nino winters. The cold PDO pattern in the Pacific really dominated so the El Nino never developed this winter. Instead, the latest Nino 3.4 weekly SST anomaly is now -0.6 C. Here's the February NYC temperature departures with the cold El Nino years bolded: 2012.....+5.6 2011.....+1.5 2010.....-1.4 2009.....+2.1 2008......+1.2 2007......-6.3 2006......+1.2 2005......+2.0 2004......+0.4 2003......-4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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