Quakertown needs snow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 euro spits a tease to others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 09 sref has ticked north a little. Looking better for southern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Last night around 1:30AM I happened to turn on TWC. I was flabbergasted to see them put up a GFS precip map to show how far north it wold come and then say it was courtesy of WRIGHT WEATHER!! They do have great maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM has also shifted a little north. Gets 0.5 up to near Dover + Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM has also shifted a little north. Gets 0.5 up to near Dover + Cape May yea, but its predominately rain that goes to rain/snow mix then maybe to snow at very end but the surface is warm in dover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 yea, but its predominately rain that goes to rain/snow mix then maybe to snow at very end but the surface is warm in dover. Yup A lot is rain but it is better than 06z which didn't get snow up to Dover+Cape May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 fwiw the euro is even further nw than the 0z yesterday, it gets .25 past philly now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Might be able to squeeze out an inch if the EURO is correct. The precip is there, just depends on how long it takes to cool the bl and stick. Being after nightfall has to help a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Its an odd shift, but every model has hiccups I guess. BL still doesn't look great but I suppose a coating isn't out of the question back home. Maybe an inch if they're really lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 FYI, northwest burbs people. PTW is 0.08" on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Low levels are drying out up here could be a virga fest. Looking pretty good for Dover south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Low levels are drying out up here could be a virga fest. Looking pretty good for Dover south Yup this was shown by the model soundings. Unless their are good returns it will be virga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 (i won't get sucked into radar) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 (i won't get sucked into radar) Virga field expanding, but haven't seen a significant increase in stuff reaching the ground on the Sterling radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This is gonna be painful to watch here in monmouth county.. NAM 24 hr precip http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znamp24024.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Quite a big jump in precip for S. Jersey and maybe well into Ocean County this 18Z run of the NAM. Coming later when temps might be colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 plug in your address of choice... very accurate depiction by location www.my-cast.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Mount holly FORECAST WILL POST AT 330 PM SIMILAR TO OUR 11AM UPDATED SNOW AMTS ETC.I DID UP AMOUNTS A BIT AT 330 PM DEADLINE IN DE AND SE NJ BASED ON THE205 PM RECEIPT OF THE ECMWF AND THE 18Z NAM.CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS.WE ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN HPC. WE STILL NEED PHASE CHANGE AS OF THIS330 PM WRITING. WE NEED TEMPS TO DROP TO 33-34F TO ACCUMULATE ATNIGHT. AND THERE ARE MODE UNCERTAINTIES.MY FCST AMTS HAVE BEEN A BIT VARIABLE IN DE AND COASTAL NJ...LOWEREDA BIT AT 11 AM AND INCREASED A BIT AT 330 PM PER THE OMINOUS 12ZEC AND 18Z NAM.SLEET HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN PARTS OF CAPE MAY COUNTY AND NOW SUSSEXCOUNTY DE. ITS SNOW NOW IN S CENTRAL VA AND A RAPID TRANSITION WILLOCCUR IN PORTIONS OF OUR FCST AREA THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG UVMMOVES TO THE SRN EDGE OF OUR AREA.WE COLLABORATED WITH HPC ON THE NEWLY ROBUST ECMWF. THE ECRECENTLY HAS BEEN AS INCONSISTENT AS THE NAM AND BEHIND THE NCEPMODELS ON FLAGGING EVENTS. SO WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT IN ITS SOLN.THIS HAZARD ISSUANCE LEANS HEAVILY ON PUBLIC IMPACT RATHER THANPURE CRITERIA AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY SINCE WE`VE HAD SO LITTLE SNOWTHIS WINTER... INCLUDING KACY 2.5" SO FAR. I ADDED A CHC OF S- TONE NJ LATE TONIGHT PER MULTIPLE MODEL SUGGESTIONS.MELTING WILL REDUCE SNOW TOTALS IN THE S PART OF OUR FCST AREA LATETHIS AFTN BUT I STILL THINK ITS GOING TO BE ROUGH GO FOR SEVERAL HOURSBETWEEN 5 AND 10 PM INCLUSIVE OF A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF NEARLY 1"/HRSNOW ACC IN 1/2SM MDT SNOW.THE NOTABLE ENE-WSW ORIENTED COLD FRONT MOVING S FROM NYS WILL HAVEITS OWN CONVERGENT FIELD AND LOWER CLOUDS AND FLURRIES ARE GRIDDEDFOR PTNS OF NE PA AND W NJ DURING THE NIGHT. THIS CF...CHANGES OURAIRMASS AND WE ARE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRIDAY.YOU`LL NOTICE THIS CFP WITH A BRIEF GUSTY NNE WIND SHIFT FM N TOS DURING TO NIGHT ...AN HOUR OR SO OF NNE GUSTS 15 TO 22 KTS ANDTEMPS FALLING BRIEFLY BUT ABRUPTLY.RAIN SHOULD CHANGE TO BIG WET FLAKES AND DRILL THE SFC TEMPS DOWNTO 33-34F ...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT THIS EVENING.THATS A WET CLINGY SNOW...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET...THAT IF ITACCUMULATES TO NEAR 5 INCHES IN EXTREME S SUSSEX COUNTY DE...WOULDCAUSE POWER OUTAGE PROBLEMS. THE COLD AIR ARRIVES IN THE WARNINGAREA AFTER THE SNOW ENDS AND SO ITS UNLIKELY SFC TEMPS WILL BE MUCHLOWER THAN 32F IN THE SNOW OF DE/MD TONIGHT.IN THE ADVY AREA...SFC TEMPS MAY BE A TAD WARMER HELPING MELT THEFALLING SNOW AND DELAYING THE CHANGE TO SNOW TIL AFTER THE AREA TOTHE SOUTH CHANGES! THIS IS AN UNUSUAL EXPECTATION AND ITS NOTGUARANTEED BUT THATS WHAT WE SEE IN THE TSECTIONS INCLUDING THE BLTEMP. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 current skew t for phl, that dotted line that pointed out like aaa, yes you know..that's what is leading to all the virga, pretty massive dry air wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Was just going to post Mt. Holly disco...how "ominous" and "robust" was Euro talking? Coastal NJ make .5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Was just going to post Mt. Holly disco...how "ominous" and "robust" was Euro talking? Coastal NJ make .5? WWD does make 0.5. But it looks like its busting down at DCA so I wouldn't trust it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro run is trash compared to reality although it's doing a great job at picking up virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Euro run is trash compared to reality. pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Steve Dimartino just sent out an email and new map with trace-2 inches up to berks county...saying the storm may be further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Nope. The southern wave doesn't have enough latitude to trend significantly far north and the Hudson Bay PV is too strong. Small details will cause the deformation zone to shift run to run but basically you are out of the game at this point if you are north. If the models are missing some feature associated with the PV that trends stronger, there could actually be a suppressive trend just before storm time. nice call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 nice call! Thanks, I appreciate that. Glad this one is out of here...I didn't get 1 rain drop or snowflake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Steve Dimartino just sent out an email and new map with trace-2 inches up to berks county...saying the storm may be further north adjust your email settings to block junk mail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 adjust your email settings to block junk mail. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 19, 2013 Share Posted January 19, 2013 fwiw the euro is even further nw than the 0z yesterday, it gets .25 past philly now This had to be by far one of the worst Euros run in a long time. Not only was the qpf way off, but its forcing was practically in the same areas as the GFS, its mid level frontogenetic forcing axis was in Sussex County Delaware and its mid level trowal was offshore. That whole run was bizarre, took Friday's clipper practically to James Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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