RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Note how unsaturated it is. I can't because I still haven't figured out how to read those darn things after all these years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 it all comes down to how strong and how far north that vort gets. Also, how far south that pv is. Thanks. I can get models not performing in harmony on dynamic cooling or synoptic banding. It is baffling to me that the 2 major features can be that divergent in modeling at this range. Anything you picked up on initialization of current features that would lend more credibility in verification from one model to another at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 CIPS analogs really arguing for this to be some sort of event for this area but they are skewed by some bad storms that don't match well like 2/16/96...however there is 1 storm that stands out and its the 2nd closest analog...12/12/82 and its the 2nd closest match...looking at the charts you wouldn't figure much snow fell but Philly got 7 inches and JFK 4 inches...not sure what fell at the coast. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1982/us1212.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I can't because I still haven't figured out how to read those darn things after all these years. In laymens terms, you want the green line as close as possible to the red line. The red line is your temperature, green is your dew pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 With confluence to the north, am not confident about Philly getting an inch on this. Don't get your hopes up in the city. I'm not confident about Philly getting a trace on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm not confident about Philly getting a trace on this I'm not either but I was being kind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I can't because I still haven't figured out how to read those darn things after all these years. I made this sounding primer last year to cover the basics: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm not confident about Philly getting a trace on this This has been one annoying winter for forecasting, unlike 09-10 and 10-11 when you knew everything would be pretty much snow for everyone these events of rain/snow line and if the storm will be close enough have been a pain, I've had to sweat out every forecast and badly blew the event on the 29th for NYC sticking with 3 inches til the very last minute even with the high res models all saying no that NNE surface wind made me a believer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I made this sounding primer last year to cover the basics: Thank you! Very helpful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Mt Holly's map is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I can't because I still haven't figured out how to read those darn things after all these years.I made this sounding primer last year to cover the basics: Just to add to that, where the "rain/snow" line "0 temp" is located from 850mbs to the SUrface, made this real quick: if that red line stays on the left side of the 0 line all the way up, its snow..... if it crosses it anywhere between the surface and 850 generally 3 things can happen, rain, sleet, or zr...depending on the sounding. Just keeping it plain here for ya. I had snow, sleet, rain and zr soundings on my laptop before it crapped out. hopes this helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Enjoy it folks south and east of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looking at the 6-12hr progs vs the 500mb soundings, I would not expect a more robust solution with the southern vort with the upcoming 00z run. (Now watch it go to town). Its been kind of a mish-mosh modeling verification at 00z, pbly best if one could put 1 part gfs, 1 part 12z nam and 2 parts euro in a blender and use that as a best fit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM is a swing and a miss, again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 even for Dc... mid atlantic implosion incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Followed by radar hallucinations. even for Dc... mid atlantic implosion incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For the population centers in this sub-forum, I think it's a final nail. However, it's an improvement over the 18Z run IMHO in terms of just misses/grazes the coastal areas. Very juicy and much closer to a hit than 18Z. Just a slight tick back NW (ala a NAM/SREF/GFS/Euro compromise) and the coast gets a nice hit. If the NAM and the last run of the Euro verify verbatim, however, then everyone in here loses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For the population centers in this sub-forum, I think it's a final nail. However, it's an improvement over the 18Z run IMHO in terms of just misses/grazes the coastal areas. Very juicy and much closer to a hit than 18Z. Just a slight tick back NW (ala a NAM/SREF/GFS/Euro compromise) and the coast gets a nice hit. If the NAM and the last run of the Euro verify verbatim, however, then everyone in here loses. I noticed that too with the NAM. Even the 18Z GFS is juicier for my area .25 than at 12Z, .15. Rgem was about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 HRRR FWIW gets decent precip shield into the delmarva, SNJ: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 At this point, there usually is someone who brings up feedback errors or something to keep hope alive...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheManWithNoFace Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 At this point, there usually is someone who brings up feedback errors or something to keep hope alive...haha Was just thinking that the line of storms in Florida MUST be wreaking havoc on the initialization... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 And it could end up that I'm the only person in the subforum that gets anything.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 At this point, there usually is someone who brings up feedback errors or something to keep hope alive...haha not in this sub forum.. tombo mods it pretty well lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 And it could end up that I'm the only person in the subforum that gets anything.... You might get an inch more than me! Lol. I see we are still 3-5 according to Mt Holly, that's encouraging enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I made this sounding primer last year to cover the basics: Ellinwood - this is a great explanation. It's been about 30 years since I learned about psychometric charts and things like this, so I'm rusty, but your explanation makes perfect sense. Let me see if I then have the path of precipitation correct (I'm using my chemical eng'g knowledge, which might not translate perfectly into meteorological language, so bear with me). I'm guessing that these charts are for conditions throughout the column at some sort of steady state equilibrium, given the statement that the dewpoint must always be less than the air temperature and that this is the baseline situation into which unsteady state changes are introduced producing snow/rain. That is, that vertical transport of relatively warm, saturated air from near the surface to the much colder snow growth region (or raindrop formation region) occurs and then those parcels of warm, saturated air quickly become supersaturated as they cool below the dewpoint, providing the driving force for formation of snowflakes, via supersaturation-driven primary nucleation to form the inital tiny ice crystals, followed by supersaturation-driven vapor deposition onto the initial tiny ice crystals, driving crystal growth to form snowflakes (or in the case of rain, the supersaturation drives formation of water droplets which then grow, via vapor deposition into larger raindrops; all depends on the temp at that altitude). Is that correct or at least mostly correct? And, if so, how does one determine how much snow is generated and falls? I'm guessing that's a rate (kinetics) question, in which the rate of transport of moist air into the precipitating layer must be estimated from vertical velocities - that sounds like what goes on in the meteorological models and that the soundings are just a representation the state of the atmosphere into which the unsteady state perturbations are added. Thanks, in advance, for any feedback you can provide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 not in this sub forum.. tombo mods it pretty well lately.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 And it could end up that I'm the only person in the subforum that gets anything.... You might get an inch more than me! Lol. I see we are still 3-5 according to Mt Holly, that's encouraging enough. where are you located? I'm on my phone and can't see locations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 where are you located? I'm on my phone and can't see locations Poster is in Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Precip this morning is a little further north than forecast by 06z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Precip this morning is a little further north than forecast by 06z models. i guess its worth noting the 0z euro gets .1 into phl and .25 into 295 region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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