stormspotterlive Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Based off of what I see so far I am willing to bet Mount holly goes with a WWA over warnings for extreme south jersey and de. The dynamics will be there for heavier precip but even at that some of it will be washed a way buy rain before going over to snow. The lower end of there totals have a better chance of Happening. I think it would be the safe thing to do for now Unless things are more impressive as the event is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Please. It's one run of the nam....lets see what the gfs says.....even then I won't give up hope till 0z models if they continue to show a south trend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The system is very dynamic...I think we have to keep that in mind before jumping ship based off of one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The other problem that parts of the Mid-Atlantic has is the warm temperatures and rainfall they've had this week. Over the past 2 days Richmond has picked up 2 inches of rainfall. My dad said the ground is pretty saturated. So temperatures are going to have to get cold enough to allow the snow to accumulated on those wet surfaces. Sure they'll get some on grassy areas but I don't think they'll see as much as they hope to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The EURO basically has nothing and now so does the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The EURO basically has nothing and now so does the NAM.So it's one 18z run(usually a ****ty run) of a ****ty model, and the European.....versus......everyone else? Yeah, not good enough reason to give up just yet.....lets just see what the gfs says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The other problem that parts of the Mid-Atlantic has is the warm temperatures and rainfall they've had this week. Over the past 2 days Richmond has picked up 2 inches of rainfall. My dad said the ground is pretty saturated. So temperatures are going to have to get cold enough to allow the snow to accumulated on those wet surfaces. Sure they'll get some on grassy areas but I don't think they'll see as much as they hope to see. I'm a bit skeptic of that sentiment with this setup for two reasons. #1 is that there could be some sleet before the changeover, and snow could/should be able to accumulate more on top of that layer instead of just the ground. #2 is most folks in the 2-4"+ zone should see a nice "thump" of snow as it changes over, with the good rates overcoming the ground issues more quickly. We saw both of these things play out during "Commutageddon" in January 2011 when a similar disturbance with strong dynamics rolled through around the same time of day. I suspect there could be some loss of snow accumulation, but not as much as some of the other events around here. Of course, the northern edge of the snow will probably be facing some initial accumulation issues due to lower rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So it's one 18z run(usually a ****ty run) of a ****ty model, and the European.....versus......everyone else? Yeah, not good enough reason to give up just yet.....lets just see what the gfs says... No reason to get angry over snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The system is very dynamic...I think we have to keep that in mind before jumping ship based off of one model run. Sure this can make minor 25 mile shifts north or south but you have to remember what dynamical means for theses type systems. If you are under the best dyanmics you usually fair out well while places just a few miles from you might be getting nothing You never want to be outside of the best velocity forcing or frontogensis or else you are going to get shafted badly. someone could see 2-4 inches down your way or extreme south jersey while others seen nothing. Or you get weak precip rates and it is all rain falling with a few flakes from time to time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 So it's one 18z run(usually a ****ty run) of a ****ty model, and the European.....versus......everyone else? NOGAPS and GGEM are fairly unimpressed with this system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 To be fair.... I could be biased.... From what I've heard I still get some precip down here even with the south trend on the nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 To be fair.... I could be biased.... From what I've heard I still get some precip down here even with the south trend on the nam. You do... maybe a tenth... but the BL is warm so I wouldn't think about accumulation if I was just basing my forecast on the 18Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Unless the gfs caves I will remain optimistic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAYEVENING. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION THAT BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ASRAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOWAROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THE TRANSITION OCCURS, ITSHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW AS THE AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TOREMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY SNOW THAT HAD A HARD TIME ACCUMULATINGDURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING DURING THISTIME. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION ISEXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY ANDCENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA. SNOWFALL COULD REACH THE DELAWAREVALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT NORTH OF THAT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCHSINCE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF LINE. THE AREAS ALONG THEDELAWARE VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE THAN ACOATING TO AN INCH. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEWJERSEY/CENTRAL SOUTHERN DELMARVA WE COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 2-6INCHES. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PRODUCING THE SNOW ISEXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT A FAIR PACE, SO IT WILL NOT BE AROUNDALL NIGHT LONG. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TOEAST AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BYDAYBREAK FRIDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY EVENING. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION THAT BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THE TRANSITION OCCURS, IT SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW AS THE AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY SNOW THAT HAD A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING DURING THIS TIME. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA. SNOWFALL COULD REACH THE DELAWARE VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT NORTH OF THAT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH SINCE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF LINE. THE AREAS ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE THAN A COATING TO AN INCH. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY/CENTRAL SOUTHERN DELMARVA WE COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 2-6 INCHES. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PRODUCING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT A FAIR PACE, SO IT WILL NOT BE AROUND ALL NIGHT LONG. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. This would officially put KPHL past 1 inch for the season IF!!!!!!! it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY EVENING. WHATEVER PRECIPITATION THAT BEGINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS RAIN OR RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ONCE THE TRANSITION OCCURS, IT SHOULD REMAIN ALL SNOW AS THE AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING. ANY SNOW THAT HAD A HARD TIME ACCUMULATING DURING THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ACCUMULATING DURING THIS TIME. FOR NOW, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN DELMARVA. SNOWFALL COULD REACH THE DELAWARE VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR, BUT NORTH OF THAT, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING MUCH SINCE THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF LINE. THE AREAS ALONG THE DELAWARE VALLEY/I-95 CORRIDOR ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MORE THAN A COATING TO AN INCH. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY/CENTRAL SOUTHERN DELMARVA WE COULD SEE ANYWHERE FROM 2-6 INCHES. THE LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL BE PRODUCING THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT A FAIR PACE, SO IT WILL NOT BE AROUND ALL NIGHT LONG. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AROUND MIDNIGHT, AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY. This would officially put KPHL past 1 inch for the season IF!!!!!!! it happens. they are already past 1 inch for the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 they are already past 1 inch for the season Did not know that I guess it was the last event a few weeks ago with 0.7 that did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS now backing off a bit too. Where's the fat lady for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS now backing off a bit too. Where's the fat lady for this one. actually the GFS came about 10-15 miles northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 actually the GFS came about 10-15 miles northwest. The QPF thump isn't as robust, which is what we need to dynamically cool the column and get accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The GFS has only backed off slightly. Still gets qpf to PHL and is half decent for S NJ+Del. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The QPF thump isn't as robust, which is what we need to dynamically cool the column and get accumulations. you probably still get 1-2 out of it from the gfs. You lose some of the qpf as stated to cooling the bl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Apparently the text is .47 of precip. The best chance to accumulate is the .30 that falls between 0z and 6z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What features are the SREFs and GFS capturing that the Euro and NAM aren't that they are so divergent for South and Coastal Jersey? Or vice versa. PHL is mostly out of play on this one, but those of us on the coast in the Mt. Holly CWA are given hope by the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What does 18z gfs show for Philly? In terms of text output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What does 18z gfs show for Philly? In terms of text output? .15 total precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What features are the SREFs and GFS capturing that the Euro and NAM aren't that they are so divergent for South and Coastal Jersey? Or vice versa. PHL is mostly out of play on this one, but those of us on the coast in the Mt. Holly CWA are given hope by the former. it all comes down to how strong and how far north that vort gets. Also, how far south that pv is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The 18Z RGEM did not have any drastic changes, for now I'm disregarding that run by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 With confluence to the north, am not confident about Philly getting an inch on this. Don't get your hopes up in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 .15 total precip. thats what the model shows, but verbatim philly is dry or maybe flurries. Here is the skew t at hr 36 where it shows precip has already fallen. Note how unsaturated it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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