bluehens Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z GFS is roughly similar to 6z. Looks like N trend has stabilized. Looks good for Delaware+SJ. Have faith.....NW flank isn't a bad place to be for banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 snow north now and south pending and the in between snow-less for now . yeah i know we had our 4" in dec but.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I like how Delco has been in the snow bubble this winter so far, yeah we had some snow but nothing like others have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WSW now posted for DC area. This thing is going to ticke north.......Euro going to lead the way in a couple of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WSW now posted for DC area. This thing is going to ticke north.......Euro going to lead the way in a couple of hours. I wish. Too much suppression north of us. Proto-typical Southern Slider. Solution is suppressed to the south without a northern phase. DC, NoVa and the Beaches get their storm. 5+ inch one at that potentially. Very curious to see what the Euro does with the set up for next week. Lots of cold air around and looks like ingredients for a late week storm (D9-D10) are there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 gefs bumped nw a little bit, gets the .25 line to about phl and the .1 line to ptw-ukt area. Probably some pretty amplified members that skew it a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Widespread Winter Storm Watches to our south now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 tom 12z euro play by play today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 southern mts. big hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 tom 12z euro play by play today? lol ill let you know what happens... i wouldn't bank on any precip from the euro past the del river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 winter storm watches for the coastal regions now and central and southern delaware. I would think the next tier up of counties would get wwa that border the watched areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looks like about 5 of the gefs from the 12 on the maps give philly something to shovel. You can also see the members which skew the mean lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shine Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lol ill let you know what happens... i wouldn't bank on any precip from the euro past the del river. well us southern lurkers are waiting with baited breath for your pbp...just like the last few storms, i'm worried we never change to snow and stay rain, so please tombo?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This may be obvious, but the GEFS are definitely not going to show the sharp cut-off which is likely on the northwest flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 euro coming in Mehh , little bit drier for southern locations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 euro holds with 0z run, less than .1 for jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 euro holds with 0z run, less than .1 for jersey I think it is a bit alarming that the ECMWF is showing this for the area. Being on the fringe is just not going to cut it with this one...you have to be in the shield substantially to see the snow; otherwise, it is meh. There is probably going to be a narrow band of ridiculous accumulation surrounded by rather meager accumulation in this shield across the Mid Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Is there any chance this thing does come more north or would that be a nowcast call. I feel like the models have trended north for most storms this year even up until the start of the event. Maybe it's just my inner snow weenie but is there anything in actual reality that could bring this thing north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Is there any chance this thing does come more north or would that be a nowcast call. I feel like the models have trended north for most storms this year even up until the start of the event. Maybe it's just my inner snow weenie but is there anything in actual reality that could bring this thing north? Nope. The southern wave doesn't have enough latitude to trend significantly far north and the Hudson Bay PV is too strong. Small details will cause the deformation zone to shift run to run but basically you are out of the game at this point if you are north. If the models are missing some feature associated with the PV that trends stronger, there could actually be a suppressive trend just before storm time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think it is a bit alarming that the ECMWF is showing this for the area. Being on the fringe is just not going to cut it with this one...you have to be in the shield substantially to see the snow; otherwise, it is meh. There is probably going to be a narrow band of ridiculous accumulation surrounded by rather meager accumulation in this shield across the Mid Atlantic. what could i also see happening, even if lighter precip does spread towards philly or the se burbs, that it's so light it falls as rain/snow mix and takes forever to cool the boundary to support snow. That's the reason why those areas in southern va flip is because it is dynamically driven. If you still lgt to maybe some moderate precip down there, a lot of those places would not see much accumulations because they would be fighting the BL warmth. It kind of reminds me of the november storm where places further west, which were colder stayed rain because the precip rates were to light. While further east got under the heavier echoes and they flipped as they wet bulbed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 what could i also see happening, even if lighter precip does spread towards philly or the se burbs, that it's so light it falls as rain/snow mix and takes forever to cool the boundary to support snow. That's the reason why those areas in southern va flip is because it is dynamically driven. If you still lgt to maybe some moderate precip down there, a lot of those places would not see much accumulations because they would be fighting the BL warmth. It kind of reminds me of the november storm where places further west, which were colder stayed rain because the precip rates were to light. While further east got under the heavier echoes and they flipped as they wet bulbed down. This is exactly why I think the decent accumulations will be narrow and why you don't want the fringe. If you are modeled less than 0.25 QPF at this point for a total, forget it (unless you like cartop coatings and things like that). The Mid Atlantic forum is unreadable at the moment but I think zywts has the right idea to forecast with caution even down there. It is a narrow band and the most superior model is barely grazing DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nope. The southern wave doesn't have enough latitude to trend significantly far north and the Hudson Bay PV is too strong. Small details will cause the deformation zone to shift run to run but basically you are out of the game at this point if you are north. If the models are missing some feature associated with the PV that trends stronger, there could actually be a suppressive trend just before storm time. Ah makes sense, thanks for the response. Hopefully i see some snow this weekend in upstate New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looking at 500 on the nam, gfs, and serfs, it seems like the storms starts the phase when its about to hit the coast. shouldn't this enhance the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WSW now posted for DC area. This thing is going to ticke north.......Euro going to lead the way in a couple of hours. yeah.... nice try lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looking at 500 on the nam, gfs, and serfs, it seems like the storms starts the phase when its about to hit the coast. shouldn't this enhance the storm? This is actually not a phase but I know what you mean. They do partially interact while passing through the Mid Atlantic and partially phase off the New England coast. But there will be no enhancement from the northern wave other than to increase the strength of the deformation zone. However, most of our area is going to be on the wrong side of that to benefit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm thinking Philly gets a dusting. Might be some wiggle room left with the northern edge but I don't expect to see any more major jumps to the north. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-31-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-january-17-initial/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm thinking Philly gets a dusting. Might be some wiggle room left with the northern edge but I don't expect to see any more major jumps to the north. 20130117_MAsnowInitial.png http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/blog/16/entry-31-mid-atlantic-snow-forecast-for-january-17-initial/ I would think most of new castle county delaware sees at least an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I would think most of new castle county delaware sees at least an inch. If the EC is right you *might* get a coating (because 0.04" and a marginal boundary layer doesn't always work out well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 18z NAM has shifted edge of precip south. Not much above S Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 RIP Southern Special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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