phlwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Here's where the GFS puts it at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 407 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 DEZ002>004-MDZ015-019-020-NJZ021>024-170915- KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE- CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY- 407 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE ON THURSDAY. HEAVIER PRECIPITATION COULD PRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For friday's event (someone else make the thread, ive failed miserably), the GEFS individuals show the cut off somewhere between the delmarva to 95. Should be a pretty sharp gradient wherever the precip decides to shut off. Could be very painful to watch in you live in SE PA again(for the umpteenth time this year).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Definitely some potential there on the recent models. Discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 for you southern areas, you definitely have a higher shot. Gotta see what the 12z runs do. The gfs at 6z bumped north but it was pretty warm while the 6z nam went south. 3z srefs bring in a decent slug of precip down that way also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hope we can edit this title and add north areas also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Was actually surprised to see the models putting in a couple of inches of snow in Central Virginia (where my family lives). Yesterday most of the wintry precipitation looked to be across the Southern Appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Srefs have pretty good probs for at least a inch of snow in Delmarva and along Gsp in costal nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Srefs have pretty good probs for at least a inch of snow in Delmarva and along Gsp in costal nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 mt. Holly;s afd: 000 FXUS61 KPHI 161143 AFDPHI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 643 AM EST WED JAN 16 2013 .SYNOPSIS... . .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AND BEGIN TO TREK TOWARDS OUR REGION ON THURSDAY. NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY LOOKS TO PHASE WITH THE WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM AS ITS SURFACE WAVE RIDES ALONG THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. MODELS ARE SPITTING OUT PLENTY OF QPF WITH THIS SYSTEM, ABOUT THE SAME AMOUNT AS THE SYSTEM IMPACTING THE REGION TODAY. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION, BASED ON THE TRACKING OF THE LOW, IS SOMETHING THE MODELS ARE HAVING A VERY HARD TIME TRYING TO RESOLVE. THERE ARE SOME MINOR INITIALIZATION ISSUES WITH ALL THE 00Z MODELS THIS MORNING, MAINLY THE THERMAL FIELDS, WHICH WILL HAVE A HUGE IMPACT ON WHAT THE PTYPE WOULD BE ON THURSDAY. WITH THE INITIAL ONSET OF PRECIPITATION STARTING THURSDAY MORNING WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE DELMARVA REGION. AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION MOVES IN, WITHIN AN AREA OF VERY STRONG MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING, THE COLUMN WILL RAPIDLY COOL AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY EVENING. MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS EVENTS, THE FORCING ALOFT IS VERY STRONG AND VERY VERY PROGRESSIVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT SIT LONG ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. THOUGH IT WILL BE A QUICK GLANCING BLOW THIS COULD BE THE FIRST ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON FOR THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ok, I can take my foot out of my mouth, gotta give props to the can ggem (even though it now has the flattest solution ) to showing this potential when the other models were way flatter and more progressive. That was quite a nostalgic northwest jump by the gfs on its 00z run. I have been off for a couple of days, so cant see all of the details from home, there will not be warm air aloft with this one, just a question of bringing precipitation into the colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z run vort is a decent bit stronger than the 6z, but the h5 low is a little further sw. The confluence isn't as strong as the 6z run either. Conclusion, i think it gets precip into jerz and del, philly i think escapes with low stratus clouds, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 its amazing comparing 0z vort and the 12z vort right now how much stronger it has trended. The issue is though, the track hasn't changed of the vort. Need that to trend north some. The vort track is not a good track for getting precip into phl and north and west with that buzzsaw sitting their. Now if that pv shifted north somewhat it would then maybe allow the coastal to track closer. Ideally you want that vort to track north of norfolk instead of hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 south jersey gets a nice 3-5 on this run... i Think like .1-.15 gets to phl also. The vort def trended better, but it needs jump further north if the river on east sees anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 fwiw the 9z sref progs are pretty darn good. Almost gets 50% to philly of seeing an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 south jersey gets a nice 3-5 on this run... i Think like .1-.15 gets to phl also. The vort def trended better, but it needs jump further north if the river on east sees anything. Negative, those ncep maps and other maps show more than what really occurs. 12z nam extracted is .02 of rain for philly, though it did increase from .01 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 fwiw the 9z sref progs are pretty darn good. Almost gets 50% to philly of seeing an inch That's going to be painful for me, hopefully I can see some flakes, but that cut off is pretty darn sharp. i think its going to be painful for a lot of people on the west side of the delaware river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM has been pretty steady since 00z run with precip edge just SE of phl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0.5 total precip for MIV. I'm hoping for like a 20 mile north shift so I can feel a little more comfortable. Thicknesses are a little high too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0.5 total precip for MIV. I'm hoping for like a 20 mile north shift so I can feel a little more comfortable. Thicknesses are a little high too. you will waste some of that bringing down the bl layer, so i would say like 2-4 on that run for down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NAM has been pretty steady since 00z run with precip edge just SE of phl. Nice to see clouds and the occasional flurry here in Delco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 you will waste some of that bringing down the bl layer, so i would say like 2-4 on that run for down there. Probably. It looks like according to the text output that we are below freezing at every level until we get down to somewhere between 1000mb-950mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Probably. It looks like according to the text output that we are below freezing at every level until we get down to somewhere between 1000mb-950mb. yea your boundary layer. Once the precip comes down hard enough it will wet bulb down and it will start to stick assuming the nam is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The frontal boundary is not making much progress against SE ridge. This could easily shift a little further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 .7+ frozen for KACY as per 12Z NAM on coolwx, any chance of it verifying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 .7+ frozen for KACY as per 12Z NAM on coolwx, any chance of it verifying? If they get that amount of precip you will see several inches of snow once the bl cools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks, figured the surface would need to cool some, but precip timing is good (mostly overnite) to get accumlated frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Thanks, figured the surface would need to cool some, but precip timing is good (mostly overnite) to get accumlated frozen. Agree on both points. Most of our snow starts like this. I think we may see about 50% of the qpf spent to cool the BL and surfaces. That could still be a nice 2-4" event for all of us, maybe more inland. Waiting for afternoon models to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 12z GFS is roughly similar to 6z. Looks like N trend has stabilized. Looks good for Delaware+SJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Crayola map doesn't look that impressive. Maybe 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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