MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes. I punted. Yesterday or the day before. If we get more than light rain/snow mix or a light cartopper I bust badly from that point. Of course if it looks like we get nailed I am not sticking to my punt. That would be dumb. But I did punt for sure. I didn't become remotely interested in this storm more than a T until 9:10 last night. Ok. It was a legitimate question, I didn't see/know that you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hr 36 western va getting pounded Looks to start as rain here, but it'll quickly change over per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 our northward trend may be over for the most part I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Any precip cutoff that screws dc should be taken seriously unless temps are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Still right on the fringe for DC area per 42hr GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 our northward trend may be over for the most part I hope not Yeah, GFS looks to hold for now. I can't tell by the map MN posted if it's about the same or less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 we all know 18z will go se some it does in every event only to have 0z be the furthest north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah, GFS looks to hold for now. I can't tell by the map MN posted if it's about the same or less QPF. don't we need something to come on shore to know for sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like GFS keeps DC in the .25-.5 contour, good stuff just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Woodlea's even better. I am further West north of 7 past town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Come on.. That was only for clients Wub I don't know why anyone would be taking precise precip cutoff literally with a single model 36 hours out unless this is your 1st time following models. Yes, it's my first time following the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N. What a nightmare for LWX, especially with the timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N. Been a while since there's been a storm with 'such' a drastic cutoff. Talking 30 miles between nothing and an inch QPF. In the end don't imagine it'll be quite that drastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like we wait for King Euro to bump us North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N. I mean in a number of instances it's been north, I don't really remember many where its been south. Considering which features are key in this instance, I'd go north over south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 at hour 42 the 6 hour precip shows that it is going to be snowing like a mofo here thursday eve. 5-6" in 6 hours 6 hour snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What a nightmare for LWX, especially with the timing. That is why they get paid the big bucks. Seriously, media reports have been all over on this one. It will suck if this thing holds south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looking like a rush hour storm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What a nightmare for LWX, especially with the timing.The 500 vort is still a hair south of my personal confidence zone... but it's close enough. This area is always a giant pain.. putting us right on the edge makes it so much less fun to try to figure out. But, whatever.. way better than hoping we don't change over for an extra 30 minutes on a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 lolz I think he meant the big buck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Would be pretty amazing in back-to-back warm/generally snowless winters to be north-side fringed by great VA snowstorms. Amazing in a crappy way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Pretty cool comparison for the geeks on here. 12z gfs @ init and current wv shot: There is no precip associated with the vort yet. Will be fun to watch it spin across the SE and bloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What Va snowstorm missed DC last year? Here in Richmond we got nada last year, one wet snow one evening and that's it. Trust me, when it comes to snow-droughts, we are second to no one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 folks on the SE thread are freaking out about a north trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Been a while since there's been a storm with 'such' a drastic cutoff. Talking 30 miles between nothing and an inch QPF. In the end don't imagine it'll be quite that drastic. I would probably lean to a broader gradient on the cutoff given the way it's supposed to come together.. but there is usually a sharp fall somewhere. i think we just don't always notice it when it's n/nw of us etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What Va snowstorm missed DC last year? Here in Richmond we got nada last year, one wet snow one evening and that's it. Trust me, when it comes to snow-droughts, we are second to no one! I'm pretty sure that we pulled off about 12-13 inches of snow last year in 2 storms (Feb 22 and March 5), while DCA was essentially getting shut out. Both of those storms had a last minute north trend on the NAM of about 25-40 miles if I recall. I thought RIC saw at least a 3 incher last year during one of those storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powderhound Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 5-6" in 6 hours 6 hour snow map looked up the hr 36 map.. fast and fierce 6hr snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 What Va snowstorm missed DC last year? Here in Richmond we got nada last year, one wet snow one evening and that's it. Trust me, when it comes to snow-droughts, we are second to no one! There was a storm last February (?)...it was during one of the few brief cold shots...stayed surpressed and hit CHO and EZF pretty hard if I recall (WSW criteria). I think flurries made it to a DC-Annapolis line and that was about it. Someone else mentioned it earlier in this thread. Got some parts of central VA up to near climo snowfall for last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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