Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's called angst. I would prefer 1 more jog to the north myself. There are multiple more model runs of superior models. We have seen the models move significantly in 24 hours. How can anyone take a precip shield literally unless this is the 1st storm they ever followed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Why would anyone have expectation that a discrete model would be skilled enough to nail down the precip shield 36 hours out, unless this is your 1st winter following weather? Welcome back after punting..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Can anyone post the 09z SREF plumes for BWI? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Pretty easy navigation around the SPC site BWI snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 It's a legit concern, especially for those north. The NAM isn't the only model showing it. They all do to some varying degree. I don't think anyone is thinking that the model will nail down the ExACT northern extent, I think the concern is there WILL be a sharp cutoff somewhere in our region. Yes. General concern is warranted. Parsing the precip shield down to the county is silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Welcome back after punting..... Thanks. Ill take pics of my snow in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS through 12hrs looks healthier thyan 6z at 18hrs fwiw I'm comparing to 12z...looks a little more expansive on the western flank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Welcome back after punting..... He punted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm comparing to 12z...looks a little more expansive on the western flank yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I'm not expecting anything more than flurries. DC folks, enjoy! Nothing is a foregone conclusion for any of us. Welcome to the board. I think your newfound interest in weather is cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 heh, 1008 in SC vs 1012 @ 6z is FAR from a bad thing...heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS feeling the brick wall too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 GFS looks healthier....maybe slower? The northern extent hasn't reached at 30 hours us vs 0z at the 42 hour panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 More phasing with the N stream support, should help indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/ Pretty easy navigation around the SPC site BWI snow: BWI sref.jpg Thanks. I'll bookmark it now. I'd be happy if this verified, but I'm hoping the new model runs squeeze more juice out for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 hr 36 western va getting pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 He punted? Yes. I punted. Yesterday or the day before. If we get more than light rain/snow mix or a light cartopper I bust badly from that point. Of course if it looks like we get nailed I am not sticking to my punt. That would be dumb. But I did punt for sure. I didn't become remotely interested in this storm more than a T until 9:10 last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wahooegger Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Im moving to tavistock farms Woodlea's even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 looking pretty similar at BWI as NAM looked thru 39 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yes. I punted. Yesterday or the day before. If we get more than light rain/snow mix or a light cartopper I bust badly from that point. Of course if it looks like we get nailed I am not sticking to my punt. That would be dumb. But I did punt for sure. I didn't become remotely interested in this storm more than a T until 9:10 last night. Ok. It was a legitimate question, I didn't see/know that you did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 hr 36 western va getting pounded Looks to start as rain here, but it'll quickly change over per the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 our northward trend may be over for the most part I hope not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Any precip cutoff that screws dc should be taken seriously unless temps are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Still right on the fringe for DC area per 42hr GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 our northward trend may be over for the most part I hope not Yeah, GFS looks to hold for now. I can't tell by the map MN posted if it's about the same or less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 we all know 18z will go se some it does in every event only to have 0z be the furthest north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Yeah, GFS looks to hold for now. I can't tell by the map MN posted if it's about the same or less QPF. don't we need something to come on shore to know for sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looks like GFS keeps DC in the .25-.5 contour, good stuff just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Meh. Most years we'd love our spot 24 hours out. But, I wish I had some stats on 'living on the edge' this way (not like gymengineer's thread). I was about 60/40 snow v cloudy but would have liked to see the GFS bump a bit more N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Woodlea's even better. I am further West north of 7 past town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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