usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Evening commute tomorrow could get ugly. If the NAm is right it will be an ugly commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You guys are welcome for me keeping this storm alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Would be awesome for you in DCA and south. Good for you all. Trying hard not to be bitter for Balt area. We missed the December stuff too, and if this is a miss as well, very frustrating. Still haven't had a WSW criteria event up this way since Jan. 27, 2011. The streak continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This is a nail-biter for those of us in the Baltimore area. Need another 25-50 miles for us verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I agree with Phin. When all is said and done, this is coming further north. And where is the ignore button? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NE Balti Zen, you're one more shift north from being in this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If the NAm is right it will be an ugly commute. ...It's a good thing I work the early shift!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 7pm Thursday sounding near DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 0.75 soooo close http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/20000125.06z.rad.gifhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/20000125.06z.rad.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Maybe shouldn't post this but may as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 sorry leesburg...maybe next time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 at hour 42 the 6 hour precip shows that it is going to be snowing like a mofo here thursday eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This could be a complete bust...the NAM has screwed us over so many times.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Although it sounds like Phin is wishcasting, there usually is some merit to the precip coming north or being a bit more north than modeled. So if I were in the Bmore area, I'd take solace in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 If we go back a couple days, the things stacked against this threat like confluence, shear, lack of surface reflection, etc have all changed. Confluence is still a problem for md'ers but we have a heck of a lot going for us now. Surface low gets its act together, Ull is staying better organized, and there is a heck of a lot more moisture working in the system. Model runs keep packing more punch so what seemed mostly harmless a few days back has evolved into a much stronger and organized system. And its still not resolved. My hunch is an obvious and expected shift n&w with the heavier precip. Not just being a weenie. If I was in the bullseye right now I would be expecting parrs and mt vortmax to get hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DC pretty stratified according to the NAM... Silver Spring around .5, Holocaust Museum .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 if it doesn't come down hard enough on the northern fringe, I'll be wet and not white BWI gets about .45 for NAM. What is the issue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This could be a complete bust...the NAM has screwed us over so many times.... We gotta get off the edge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/20000125.06z.rad.gifhttp://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/20000125.06z.rad.gif I mentioned this morning that this was ;looking more and more like 1/25/00 in the way the models were depicting it and the evolution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 NE Balti Zen, you're one more shift north from being in this. I get that...but at some point, it won't shift further. No reason to think this is coming further at this point. Nice storm for folks to our south, good for them. Just noting the WSW criteria shutout contiues for Balt proper it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This could be a complete bust...the NAM has screwed us over so many times.... it looks good for you. I get screwed. Im pulling for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I don't know if its a graphics issue or what, but the maps on Allens site and the NCEP don't line up with the precip on the northern extent. I don't think that's really important, doubt they are that precisely correct anyway, but they are different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 BWI gets about .45 for NAM. What is the issue? BWI is pretty far south of Baltimore proper. Verbatim, this run would give those in N and NE Baltimore basically zilch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DCA in a great spot, want BWI in a better position. One more north shift will do it. Anyone know ratios? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 sorry leesburg...maybe next time You give up too easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 6z GFS did not have quite the cutoff as NAM had this run and prior runs maybe a resolution diff, but it may mean as well that it will be a little more forgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 This could be a complete bust...the NAM has screwed us over so many times.... that's why I think for a forecast you offer a couple of different scenarios as the SREFS also have some decent members. The gradient is going to be really tight which always raises questions. What did the Euro do last night? Did it give us anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 You give up too easy He has given up 6 times since the Euro last ran Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 that's why I think for a forecast you offer a couple of different scenarios as the SREFS also have some decent members. The gradient is going to be really tight which always raises questions. What did the Euro do last night? Did it give us anything? No. In fact, hilariously, DT punted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 In the end I see very little difference in the northern cutoff of the precip from the 6z and 12z NAM. Almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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