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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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North Carolina has thunder snow.

 

This place is pathetic. I am going to Farmville tomorrow...

 

Maybe I'll see some snow there. It is supposed to be 18 degrees tomorrow night...so at least it will feel like winter.

 

Good night snow hole.....

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Officially 1.6" of snow at the airport. We set a daily record of 1.56" for precip that day.....up to 4.24" for the month with almost all of that falling since Monday.

 

thats pathetic for a storm of that magnitude. thats like a decent clipper total

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just to show how bad even the Euro shiat the bed at the last minute with this storm, the 0Z run (based on 7PM conditions from last night) gave DCA .10" and BWI .06" qpf for the 6 hrs ending 1AM

neither airport recorded even a trace (of anything)

Maybe, but wasn't the EURO the most consistent model on this storm for the past week?

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give it up, we are not going to sniff anything close to normal. I need 20" just to get to about 75 percent of normal. We will be lucky to end up half of normal. At this point I would be happy if we just got 7 days of normal cold and solid snowcover from a 4-6" type storm. At least it would be something. Even hope for that is fading in my mind.

I still think we get a storm between 4-8 along with a couple 1-3's. We are roughly at 8 right now so I think we will break 20 inches. I know that sounds depressing and is not want you're looking for but I would sign up for that right now.

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Easily had over 1/2 inch of QPF after the chnageover, but only 1 inch on the ground.

 

Typical RIC snowstorm. Shafted even when we win.

^2

Would have easily been over 6 inches if it we had not gotten 4 inches of rain before, kind of like trying to accumulate snow on top of the ocean. Amazing it even accumulated at all, especially on the roads.

Just engough to sled this AM and make for a crusty snowball fight, I'll take it but it's going quick!

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^2

Would have easily been over 6 inches if it we had not gotten 4 inches of rain before, kind of like trying to accumulate snow on top of the ocean. Amazing it even accumulated at all, especially on the roads.

Just engough to sled this AM and make for a crusty snowball fight, I'll take it but it's going quick!

 

You're elevation probably helped you quite a bit in Powhatan. I'm assuming that's why Mike Seidel set up shop there. If you look in the lower VA thread you'll see a few pictures by Midlo showing the difference 100 or 200 feet makes.

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Why do people in southern Virginia think this storm was anything but a bust.. According to Richmond paper, only 1 to 3 inches fell,  when forecasts called for at least double that amount.

 

If that had happened in DC, and warnings were out, people would be calling bust.

 

I can't speak for the folks in the RIC area, but predicted totals in SW VA pretty much verified. The further east away from the mountains you went, the less you'd see. I measured around 5" and NWS had around 6" forecasted for my area.

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Why do people in southern Virginia think this storm was anything but a bust.. According to Richmond paper, only 1 to 3 inches fell,  when forecasts called for at least double that amount.

 

If that had happened in DC, and warnings were out, people would be calling bust.

 

Most forecasts around here called for 2-5" of snow. I received 2" with some of the greatest compaction I have ever witnessed in addition to thunder and lightning. Just 10-15 miles from my house there were reports of 3 and 4". Most individuals in the piedmont will have a similar story. What is there to be overly upset about?

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Why do people in southern Virginia think this storm was anything but a bust.. According to Richmond paper, only 1 to 3 inches fell,  when forecasts called for at least double that amount.

 

If that had happened in DC, and warnings were out, people would be calling bust.

 

This was a thread the needle event for anyone who was lucky enough to get snow and many of us incl me to some extent lost sight of that.  It was a bootleg air mass with a meh pattern and unpredictable confluence along with a impotent southern stream.  The areas that got into good accumulating snow were not going to be widespread and there was a lot of bust potential.  I wouldn't go as far to call it a fluke but it was a late developing thread the needle type storm and those at elevations below 800' who got anything should be grateful.  Even with the robust ULL, this was not a setup for the coastal plain to get raked with a significant proper ratio snowstorm.  so it wasn't a bust.  Bad forecasts and poor model handling were busts.  The event was a success given the pattern and antecedent conditions. I think this winter if we want pure southern stream events to perform to expectation or overperform we need broad-based overrunning into a cold dome and/or a sfc low with that can amplify to <1000mb by the time it reached our latitude or take a much more ideal track.  Of course overrunning is the best scenario.  

 

I think a good rule of thumb for DC  for an event out of the south is to see modeled precip greater than say 0.25" get into Philadelphia.  That gives us a margin of error and also generally PHL rarely gets shut out on southern stream events that hit us.  Even 1/30/10 gave PHL 2"+ and Wilmington 4"+

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Why was it impotent? It dropped a lot of QPF. Or are you referring to the fact it was unwinding rather than strengthening etc.

It was unable to amplify and come north in a non suppressive warm air mass due to a little confluence despite an impressive ULL. Our dewpoint was 33 and it generallycouldn't get within 50 miles of us. This wasn't a suppressed event because of surface features. It was another weak low that ambled off the coast and didn't strengthen or amplify. So it squeezed out a lot of moisture over a limited area. I think the amount of liquid is a different classification and metric. I think it is why we saw the same thing last winter too. In 2005 we got these faux southern stream events in late February that many thought were going to be massive and they both ended up nice but underwhelming due to the weakness of the niño. . I don't know the physics and science behind it but when we don't have a niño or the remnants of one without the Nina stink we have trouble getting potent events out of the south without a phase. I think in February maybe we can get something that comes up the coast with a really good pattern.

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This was a thread the needle event for anyone who was lucky enough to get snow and many of us incl me to some extent lost sight of that.  It was a bootleg air mass with a meh pattern and unpredictable confluence along with a impotent southern stream. 

What exactly is a "bootleg" airmass?

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