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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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it really is a disaster that we get a north trend every storm except the ones we need it

No coincidence there.... and the reason why we need an el nino or a neutral with a strong southern jet to have a good snowfall winter here. When the southern jet is weak, and there is no phasing, we are probably going to be too far north if it is cold enough because the confluence will likely be near and without any phasing or a strong STJ...well... see last Feb and today. If there is phasing then we are probably just a bit too far south in many cases. We are just in a bad place unless it is a nino year when the STJ can get the work done for us.
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No coincidence there.... and the reason why we need an el nino or a neutral with a strong southern jet to have a good snowfall winter here. When the southern jet is weak, and there is no phasing, we are probably going to be too far north if it is cold enough because the confluence will likely be near and without any phasing or a strong STJ...well... see last Feb and today. If there is phasing then we are probably just a bit too far south in many cases. We are just in a bad place unless it is a nino year when the STJ can get the work done for us.

At this point for those of us who live up here we need to receive betwen 25 and 30 inches to get to our averages, and at this point that looks highly unlikely. If we finally get a decent event or two in Feb. that everyone area wide cashes in on means those well south of us will be closer to average at seasons end then we will. We may very well get shutout in Jan. even here, so it comes down to whether we can muster up a better version of what we saw 2-3 weeks ago in Feb. which is still very possible. March has been terrible in recent years in this area except for 2007 so I would keep expectations low. Whoever would have thought our biggest event over a 15 month period would come in October.

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At this point for those of us who live up here we need to receive betwen 25 and 30 inches to get to our averages, and at this point that looks highly unlikely. If we finally get a decent event or two in Feb. that everyone area wide cashes in on means those well south of us will be closer to average at seasons end then we will. We may very well get shutout in Jan. even here, so it comes down to whether we can muster up a better version of what we saw 2-3 weeks ago in Feb. which is still very possible. March has been terrible in recent years in this area except for 2007 so I would keep expectations low. Whoever would have thought our biggest event over a 15 month period would come in October.

people in NE can argue otherwise, but winters in the MA with snow events in OCT are never good

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Despite it snowing probably 6-8 inches worth and only getting 2-3, I'll take it. The roads are a disaster and now have the day off tomorrow leading into a 4 day weekend. Win all around. And it's the first snow I saw and was starting to wonder if there would be a complete drought this season. 

 

Edit: My bad, I didn't realize I was posting in the DC/Baltimore Forum. I'll take it to the Mid-Atlantic thread next time....

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i think we'll probably have to ban posting pee writing pics in the future .. well, if it ever snows again

 

Apple juice does the trick. It's probably a good idea though. Although I wouldn't put it past Jamie to find another way of getting under Ji's skin.

 

Now that we are the new RDU, this is probably our last snowfall for quite some time.

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At this point for those of us who live up here we need to receive betwen 25 and 30 inches to get to our averages, and at this point that looks highly unlikely. If we finally get a decent event or two in Feb. that everyone area wide cashes in on means those well south of us will be closer to average at seasons end then we will. We may very well get shutout in Jan. even here, so it comes down to whether we can muster up a better version of what we saw 2-3 weeks ago in Feb. which is still very possible. March has been terrible in recent years in this area except for 2007 so I would keep expectations low. Whoever would have thought our biggest event over a 15 month period would come in October.

give it up, we are not going to sniff anything close to normal. I need 20" just to get to about 75 percent of normal. We will be lucky to end up half of normal. At this point I would be happy if we just got 7 days of normal cold and solid snowcover from a 4-6" type storm. At least it would be something. Even hope for that is fading in my mind.
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