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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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That is a true casualty.. I'm so sorry for your loss. Those things are usually pretty sturdy, it may have just covered it. Did you have it mounted on your house? How is the house?

 

It's out by the garage and the garage looks to have taken the brunt of the fall. I'd go back out and look but there's another pine tree right next to the one that just fell and I can see it beginning to bow. Not gonna take any chances. I believe the main unit is still working because it was updating after the tree fell, but the anemometer might be shot.

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0042
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0554 PM CST THU JAN 17 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...THE PIEDMONT REGION OF NC INTO SOUTH CENTRAL VA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 172354Z - 180400Z

SUMMARY...MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN/MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
HEAVY SNOW THIS EVENING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION OF NC INTO SRN
VA. SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR CAN BE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN PRECIPITATION THAT OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON TO
THE WEST OF THIS DISCUSSION AREA IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH RAIN
TRANSITIONING TO MIXED PRECIP AND THEN ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EWD THROUGH THE PIEDMONT REGION OF NC AND SRN VA THIS EVENING. TIME
OF DAY AND FURTHER COOLING OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE THROUGH MELTING
SNOWFLAKES AND DYNAMICALLY WITHIN THE COLUMN PER STRONG ASCENT AHEAD
OF A PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
BECOME THERMODYNAMICALLY SUPPORTIVE FOR ALL SNOW BY 00-01Z. THIS
TREND IS ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KLYH AND 35 N GSO /AT KMTV/.
MEANWHILE...LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A STRIKE INVOF KGSO WHERE HEAVY
RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING WITH THIS BEING INDICATIVE OF THE STRONG
ASCENT SPREADING ENEWD AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW.

LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE
PROGRESSIVE/COMPACT MIDLEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NERN GA/
UPSTATE SC AT 23Z AND TRACKING TO THE ENE. STRONG DCVA WITH THIS
FEATURE...WHICH SHOULD REACH ERN NC/SERN VA BY 18/06Z...COMBINED
WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA ACROSS NRN NC AND ADJACENT SRN VA WITHIN
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL SUPPORT FURTHER COOLING/MOISTENING FOR A
CONTINUED EXPANSION IN PRECIPITATION. GIVEN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE BEING CENTERED BETWEEN 500-600 MB WHERE ASCENT
IS EXPECTED TO BE MAXIMIZED...THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SHOULD BE
CONDUCIVE TO LARGE DENDRITES WITH OPTIMAL LIQUID WATER CONTENT. IN
ADDITION...A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST BELOW 0 C IN THE 700-900 MB
LAYER WILL SUPPORT AGGREGATE PROCESSES INCREASING SNOWFALL RATES.
THE EMBEDDED CONVECTION PER THE AFOREMENTIONED LIGHTNING DATA CAN
FURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES.

..PETERS.. 01/17/2013

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