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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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kinda totally disagree with their first sentence. LWX made a call based on how they thought models were moving. they were wrong.. but they didn't just regurgitate guidance and actually did some forecasting. hopefully we stop beating a dead horse soon.

good luck with the local media and the general public. 

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kinda totally disagree with their first sentence. LWX made a call based on how they thought models were moving. they were wrong.. but they didn't just regurgitate guidance and actually did some forecasting. hopefully we stop beating a dead horse soon.

 

my biggest problem is they kept the watch but dropped the threshold....not sure if they broke protocol or if they were allowed to issue a watch with a 3 or 4" threshold...if so there was no reason to use 5" as a baseline

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If snow had a first cousin, we are doing it here. 

 

I feel a little bad for the NC peeps. It's not looking good. 

 

 

Did you finally change over?  Why is NC seemingly getting screwed here?  Precip shield too north or are boundary layer temps too high?

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my biggest problem is they kept the watch but dropped the threshold....not sure if they broke protocol or if they were allowed to issue a watch with a 3 or 4" threshold...if so there was no reason to use 5" as a baseline

 

yeah it's another one of those gov communication issues that keep cropping up. tho their initial forecast for our part of the watch was around the 5" criteria. they noted very specifically in the midday update that they were hedging on the northern zones. probably should have released that before or concurrently.. 

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Did you finally change over?  Why is NC seemingly getting screwed here?  Precip shield too north or are boundary layer temps too high?

Close-- some wet wet flakes mixed in. It's marching EAST now-- 

 

looks to change over later. The people from CLT to RDU had some expectations. My guess is RDU may do well, but CLT is in trouble

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If snow had a first cousin, we are doing it here. 

 

I feel a little bad for the NC peeps. It's not looking good. 

their getting screwed has increased our chances of at least getting a little

it's a cruel world

not that we will see anything, but that it's so hard to get snow in the piedmont from NC to the MD/PA border (except the higher spots in central/northern MD)

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their getting screwed has increased our chances of at least getting a little

it's a cruel world

not that we will see anything, but that it's so hard to get snow in the piedmont from NC to the MD/PA border (except the higher spots in central/northern MD)

To be honest, I'm looking at radar says its over. Everythings starting to make the push e/ese. Steering currents for the low look interesting, but those usually don't work out. 

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To be honest, I'm looking at radar says its over. Everythings starting to make the push e/ese. Steering currents for the low look interesting, but those usually don't work out. 

you're just mad that you won't get any flurries

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To be honest, I'm looking at radar says its over. Everythings starting to make the push e/ese. Steering currents for the low look interesting, but those usually don't work out. 

we're on the edge of the shield, the cold/dry air is pouring south and eating the snow

now, the Euro didn't really have it getting started at BWI to closer to 5PM so we'll see

at this point, a whiff is still completely possible but the computers (i.e. Euro) are smarter than me

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