H2O Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So if DCA does get .35" I guess the NAM from yesterday would end up being fairly close, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asdfk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The models haven't done as terribly with this system as some here make it seem....DC (currently the northern extent of the system) just happens to be where a plurality of posters reside, so naturally a run of the mill 10-20 mile shift north is going to seem significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Don't give me hope... I'm not...you live too far north to have much hope..chance are still good you get completely shut out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Adjustment Bureau strikes again. I'm adjusting my expectations to maybe we will see a brief shower of gloppy water laden mangled snow flakes late tonight just before ending, with a 20 percent chance of a cartop coating. The 2012-2013 winter looks to be the year of a near total snow shutout after all. When does the 2013-2014 winter start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The models haven't done as terribly with this system as some here make it seem....DC (currently the northern extent of the system) just happens to be where a plurality of posters reside, so naturally a run of the mill 10-20 mile shift north is going to seem significant. good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So if DCA does get .35" I guess the NAM from yesterday would end up being fairly close, right? here are my latest probabilities from http://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow This is for DCA and southern burbs Virtual Whiff (No Precip other than maybe some spitting rain/flakes) - 25% Light Snow with maybe some mix not accumulating well other than cartops and some grassy areas, Dusting to 1/2" - 45% Eventual with some steadier bursts, Around 1" with some street/sidewalk accumulation possible, esp. after dark - 20% Accumulating snow, especially late afternoon into evening when snow may become steadier/heavier and accumulate easier, 1-3", with ~2" most probable - 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 So if DCA does get .35" I guess the NAM from yesterday would end up being fairly close, right? Honestly, I would expect nothing different from this setup. Final outcome will never be modeled perfectly at all. Especially nw extent. It's why we debated, bickered, and fought yesterday. The bottom line is that if you are close on the nw side you are never totally out of the game. You know this along with many but for some reason we need to keep reminding ourselves every time. Sometimes models are a bad thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm not...you live too far north to have much hope..chance are still good you get completely shut out Good, then I don't have to watch radar all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Good, then I don't have to watch radar all day I, nor anybody else or any model, is skilled enough to know where the exact precip boundary will set up with precision...so you are asking a question that really has no deterministic answer...but you know that... Plus you have to add in the fact that I mostly care about my backyard like everyone else and that is where our best skill lies anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If you look at radar it makes sense that some sort of precip boundary might set up just north and west of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I, nor anybody else or any model, is skilled enough to know where the exact precip boundary will set up with precision...so you are asking a question that really has no deterministic answer...but you know that... Plus you have to add in the fact that I mostly care about my backyard like everyone else and that is where our best skill lies anyway At least you're honest about being an IMBY weenie I never expected anything from this system anyways, but always nice to see a flake or two even if it doesn't amount to much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Radar looks promising at the moment. Just one small problem tho. 45 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Honestly, I would expect nothing different from this setup. Final outcome will never be modeled perfectly at all. Especially nw extent. It's why we debated, bickered, and fought yesterday. The bottom line is that if you are close on the nw side you are never totally out of the game. You know this along with many but for some reason we need to keep reminding ourselves every time. Sometimes models are a bad thing. I was only teasing Matt a little. I'm a jerk that way. Personally I will only look back AFTER the event to see which model did a better job and keep trying to apply that to the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 almost getting banded above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 here are my latest probabilities from http://www.facebook.com/HeadfulOfSnow This is for DCA and southern burbs Virtual Whiff (No Precip other than maybe some spitting rain/flakes) - 25% Light Snow with maybe some mix not accumulating well other than cartops and some grassy areas, Dusting to 1/2" - 45% Eventual with some steadier bursts, Around 1" with some street/sidewalk accumulation possible, esp. after dark - 20% Accumulating snow, especially late afternoon into evening when snow may become steadier/heavier and accumulate easier, 1-3", with ~2" most probable - 10% You make most mets look bad....nice job with everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If you look at radar it makes sense that some sort of precip boundary might set up just north and west of DC I agree. Looks to me like Westminster to Martinsburg to Elkins. Even north of Baltimore is still not out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You can possibly intuit that the good returns will slip south and east of DC while some of the lighter returns will fill in and set up to the north and west and then eventually consolidate and move off to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I agree. Looks to me like Westminster to Martinsburg to Elkins. Even north of Baltimore is still not out of this. Personally I think anyone south of a line from about Front Royal to Leesburg and extended is out of this, unless "in" means flurries. Hope I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 CWG posted about the slight similarities to January 25, 2011. Does anyone have a link to that storm's forum? I think the developing moisture to the west is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Flurries are all I expected all along, so I'll take any flake I get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You make most mets look bad....nice job with everything. thanks....I was mostly all over the map with this storm for a bit...I ignored my own advice and experience that the best option with winter storms here is simply to ignore the NAM completely and use other guidance...If you try to work the NAM in the mix it just confuses things...We still have to see what happens, but a simple Euro/GFS blend was probably best...both were warm, GFS was wetter for a few runs.,,but you split the difference and you probably get the best forecast from 24-36 hours in this case and often with other cases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 CWG posted about the slight similarities to January 25, 2011. Does anyone have a link to that storm's forum? I think the developing moisture to the west is a good sign. I dont think that is what they did..rather they highlighted the differences Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 well, there goes the WWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's coming down hard at 8000 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 well, there goes the WWA Right on schedule for the snow to start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Right on schedule for the snow to start. yeah heh. their zone forecast didn't really change.. still "up to 1" edit: still old zone i guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You can possibly intuit that the good returns will slip south and east of DC while some of the lighter returns will fill in and set up to the north and west and then eventually consolidate and move off to the east. I am more pessimistic about anything to the W right now. My "virtual whiff" meter is pegging at about 70% right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Personally I think anyone south of a line from about Front Royal to Leesburg and extended is out of this, unless "in" means flurries. Hope I'm wrong. Yeah I was meaning seeing some flakes fly. Not accum snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I am more pessimistic about anything to the W right now. My "virtual whiff" meter is pegging at about 70% right now. being 11 mi south of my old hood and 10 mi southeast of you may actually matter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 almost getting banded above Blizzard at tilt 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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