Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Anytime there is a 5h vort taking these kinds of tracks during the winter months there is a chance. We talked about it a week ago but the ns was persistent on squishing it in the models. But in these cases subtle shifts in strength and placement of the ns can open the doors awful quick at our latitude. I know I'm preaching to the choir with you but every single event like this should be discussed in detail no matter how slim the chance. What's the other option? Discuss nothing at all and get backdoored with snow while leaving the entire board saying wtf happened? Nah, that goes against the purpose of this board existing in the first place. Right. As far as I'm concerned this event still had more potential for the DC/Balt area -- at least the lowerlands -- than any other this winter. And plenty of those got talked up. At best it was probably a coin flip.. I leaned a little too heavy toward snowier maybe as I was about 60/40 yesterday morning. The thread was littered with cautionary tales.. I think NWS was the snowiest idea overall.. tho not sure what DCAlexandria was thinking accum wise. This place is still about the best to bounce ideas off people and run chances on the lower probability but more interesting scenarios etc. Working in a think tank, I see some similarities to how we "do business" in a place like this compared to a blog/social media/etc where there is communication but it's largely one group telling another group what they think. In the past I've slapped down weenies for being jackasses when there is little to no chance etc. But, in this case I think it was worth watching even if I don't see a drop of precip. Hopefully those who are trying to learn more about how all diff types of systems might impact us have learned from this one. I think I'll take away at least a lesson or two -- as the great Ji once said: N trends only happen when we don't want them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looking at current surface obs and the precip forecasts by the RAP in the next 10-12 hours, I'd think there's at least a small chance of a pretty big snowfall bust. Other thoughts? outside the higher elevations, if you're under the upper level vort, you'll see some decent snow falling imho;whether it sticks/accumulates with current temps needing to fall a long way is another question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast-region/weather-radar?play=1 The radar looks pretty good to me.. although im only a weenie.. any thoughts? in starting to think this will be more of a temp issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think the greater point Wes was making - and I def agree - is when you go THIS long between decent snowfalls, patience wears thin and people get a bit shorter in temper and it is overall less "fun" as compared to the glory days... Yea, I can see that. I suppose I'm a bit more relaxed than many so it takes a lot more than lack of snow to get under my skin. If anything, going so long without is actually making it easier and easier. A good comparison would be a recovering alcoholic getting their 2 year coin. Keeps on getting easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/southeast-region/weather-radar?play=1 The radar looks pretty good to me.. although im only a weenie.. any thoughts? in starting to think this will be more of a temp issue that's way overdone imho here's a more accurate view http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wood Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 there is some talk in the Southeastern States about a more north move on the RAP over the last five or so runs. I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Why is everyone in an uproar all of the sudden? I mean, temps. weren't supposed to come crashing down until around sunset or after for those places east of the Apps. anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 that's way overdone imho here's a more accurate view http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Thanks! Last time i trust Accuweather! but even on this radar i like the northern movement of the last big blob of precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Snow creeping in to my west- Snow in Covington. Boss text me-- he's just north of ROA with sleet/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 there is some talk in the Southeastern States about a more north move on the RAP over the last five or so runs. I dunno Certainly has-- but the HRRR has trended south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Snowing in my county, camera up at Jerrys Run and Covington on 511virginia. Got a mix here right now. 35-36 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 there is some talk in the Southeastern States about a more north move on the RAP over the last five or so runs. I dunno It does look more north but not sure if that means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpikesnowlover Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 down to 41 in Innsbrook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Snow creeping in to my west- Snow in Covington. Boss text me-- he's just north of ROA with sleet/snow Still all rain here in ROA, but it's gotta be close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Still all rain here in ROA, but it's gotta be close. Yeah, He's just north of Fincastle, so pretty far up 220 in Bortetort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Qaanaaq Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We've got some good rain happening here in cho- somewhat surprised- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0041.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 My weather station IMBY dropped over 2 degrees in the past half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 that's way overdone imho here's a more accurate view http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php This is actually reality, and no, the hole isn't filling in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What a freaking roller coaster ride this has been. Matt was noble in that he did not join in on the weenie celebration. Thanks but I don't think I did very well and didnt on one of the December events either.....the main thing is we had to get flushed to do ok here and there was only one model showing it and it was a bad model with a cold and wet bias......the GFS showed a quasi hit for a run or 2, but we really needed the euro to come on board...once the NAM went 75 miles south in one run, it confirmed its status as unreliable and caved toward the euro. Ian mentioned 1/30/10 and I said I didn't think things were going to come north this year without help from the northern stream...at least yet....our current pattern isn't very good....i went in full weenie mode last night and today because I want to see something...I think souther burbs and maybe DC proper still have a chance at a minor event after dark....maybe a couple hours of -SN that can get the cartops?....but I am still in the low 40s right now so some major cooling needed....I guess the bottom line is there was no compelling reason to be bullish at any point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 This is actually reality, and no, the hole isn't filling in. When i commented on the radar i was noting to the northward movement of the precip currently over Tennessee and WV, not whats happening around town.. to me its looking like a big heave chunk could still make it to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I am hoping just to see some snow this evening... just to see it fall again. I admit I was roped in... I am frustrated. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 When i commented on the radar i was noting to the northward movement of the precip currently over Tennessee and WV, not whats happening around town.. to me its looking like a big heave chunk could still make it to us If the column saturates before the energy pulls east, perhaps we can manage a few yellow garbage can covers. I hope Ian has his Nikon on ISO 1600 so it's not missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 850's came crashing down already through RIC...using VDOT cams it is snow/rain mix just west of CHO on 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 wow at the euro! almost 0.25" for DCA between 7pm and 1am tonight...with precip reaching past HGR and MRB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 850's came crashing down already through RIC...using VDOT cams it is snow/rain mix just west of CHO on 29 Not seeing that...still 43 in CHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If the column saturates before the energy pulls east, perhaps we can manage a few yellow garbage can covers. I hope Ian has his Nikon on ISO 1600 so it's not missed. Thats all im asking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 wow at the euro! almost 0.25" for DCA between 7pm and 1am tonight...with precip reaching past HGR and MRB Thats surprising... could the EURO be overcompensating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpikesnowlover Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Yep i agree.. it is considerably colder out. i am now at 38 at 295 and Nuckols in Innsbrook, 850's came crashing down already through RIC...using VDOT cams it is snow/rain mix just west of CHO on 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 all the models have fooked this up one, if not both, way(s) or another Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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