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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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What a freaking roller coaster ride this has been. Matt was noble in that he did not join in on the weenie celebration.

He was good but there was actually a chance. It's kinda dumb we aren't allowed to discuss chances anymore because someone is keeping track of who is 'best'.
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You're an admin, do something about it.

I'm not sure there is anything to do. Weather is more about personalities these days than it used to be. There have always been big personalities but now everyone feels like they have some sort of reputation to build/defend. I don't think the science is as good as some claim when they say there was "never any chance" or something like that. NWS wouldn't have been bullish yesterday if that was true. Attack them all we want to feel better about ourselves...

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Still think we try to squeak an inch or two with a band between 5-8pm. 

Could be. I haven't even looked at anything since last night. It's pretty mild.. but if we can get any precip around and after dark that would be good.

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NWS has now backed off on their all snow around 4-5pm time frame now they are a 8pm and after.

This is not true if you look at the Aviation portion of the AFD it states that heaviest snow will commence around Roanoke by mid afternoon and if you look on the radar the rain snow lone is making a steady progress over the mountains. Temps at multiple reporting locations have dipped into the upper 30s

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 640 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING

DESPITE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH

MID DECK FOR THE MOST PART. THINKING THIS WILL PREVAIL A WHILE

LONGER BEFORE THINGS SATURATE MORE ALLOWING CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR

BY MIDDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY DIVE INTO IFR OR WORSE AS THE CHANGE

FROM RAIN TO SNOW TAKES SHAPE FROM NW TO SE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL RUN UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE

WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KBCB/KROA BY MID AFTERNOON

AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST REACHING KLYH BEFORE SUNSET AND KDAN

DURING THE EARLY EVENING. KBLF AND KLWB LIKELY TO SEE IFR AS WELL

WITH KBLF PERHAPS LOWERING TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN HEAVIER

SNOWFALL AFTER SOME EARLY -FZRA OR PL.

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This is not true if you look at the Aviation portion of the AFD it states that heaviest snow will commence around Roanoke by mid afternoon and if you look on the radar the rain snow lone is making a steady progress over the mountains. Temps at multiple reporting locations have dipped into the upper 30s

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AS OF 640 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL EARLY THIS MORNING

DESPITE PERIODIC LIGHT RAIN THAT HAS BEEN MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH

MID DECK FOR THE MOST PART. THINKING THIS WILL PREVAIL A WHILE

LONGER BEFORE THINGS SATURATE MORE ALLOWING CIGS TO LOWER TO MVFR

BY MIDDAY...AND THEN QUICKLY DIVE INTO IFR OR WORSE AS THE CHANGE

FROM RAIN TO SNOW TAKES SHAPE FROM NW TO SE THRU THE AFTERNOON.

APPEARS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL RUN UP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE

WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AT KBCB/KROA BY MID AFTERNOON

AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST REACHING KLYH BEFORE SUNSET AND KDAN

DURING THE EARLY EVENING. KBLF AND KLWB LIKELY TO SEE IFR AS WELL

WITH KBLF PERHAPS LOWERING TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS IN HEAVIER

SNOWFALL AFTER SOME EARLY -FZRA OR PL.

Now they have flipped back... just did not catch it quick enough.

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He was good but there was actually a chance. It's kinda dumb we aren't allowed to discuss chances anymore because someone is keeping track of who is 'best'.

 

Anytime there is a 5h vort taking these kinds of tracks during the winter months there is a chance. We talked about it a week ago but the ns was persistent on squishing it in the models. But in these cases subtle shifts in strength and placement of the ns can open the doors awful quick at our latitude. I know I'm preaching to the choir with you but every single event like this should be discussed in detail no matter how slim the chance. 

 

What's the other option? Discuss nothing at all and get backdoored with snow while leaving the entire board saying wtf happened? Nah, that goes against the purpose of this board existing in the first place. 

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I think most of that is because we used to actually get snow.

 

But using the ma sucks nowadays card as an excuse to find every reason to dismiss a low prob event is lame. If you only want to discuss high prob events the tune in once every couple of years and don't bother engaging at all when it's marginal. 

 

This storm had a chance and these types of systems are one of the ways we can get a moderate event. I'm not sure why people felt the need to fight over it. 

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That's true.  Everyone is more jovial when they are watching snow fall as they type their next post.

 

Also during the past two years there have been a lack of any legit threats.  Yesterday was a threat but the vort had to come far enough n for the confluence zone to get north of us and that was always going to be tough.  Then we also had boundary layer temp issues. 

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There is a lot of precip to the sw and the ull is still wrapping.  I would wait until 75%+ of the precip has passed us before piling on the game over as hard as the game on got piled on.

 

it does looks like this could be a tick further north than projected if you're just looking at the radar, but it's pretty hard to tell.  it's going to be close, though.  i'd be happy in fredericksburg right now so long as temps cooperate.

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it does looks like this could be a tick further north than projected if you're just looking at the radar, but it's pretty hard to tell.  it's going to be close, though.  i'd be happy in fredericksburg right now so long as temps cooperate.

I remember times thinking it would be good for at least my area and watching precip blossom to my north in N. MD and SE PA...who knows.

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But using the ma sucks nowadays card as an excuse to find every reason to dismiss a low prob event is lame. If you only want to discuss high prob events the tune in once every couple of years and don't bother engaging at all when it's marginal. 

 

This storm had a chance and these types of systems are one of the ways we can get a moderate event. I'm not sure why people felt the need to fight over it. 

 

I think the greater point Wes was making - and I def agree - is when you go THIS long between decent snowfalls, patience wears thin and people get a bit shorter in temper and it is overall less "fun" as compared to the glory days...

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