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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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There is a lot of precip to the sw and the ull is still wrapping.  I would wait until 75%+ of the precip has passed us before piling on the game over as hard as the game on got piled on.

 

it does looks like this could be a tick further north than projected if you're just looking at the radar, but it's pretty hard to tell.  it's going to be close, though.  i'd be happy in fredericksburg right now so long as temps cooperate.

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it does looks like this could be a tick further north than projected if you're just looking at the radar, but it's pretty hard to tell.  it's going to be close, though.  i'd be happy in fredericksburg right now so long as temps cooperate.

I remember times thinking it would be good for at least my area and watching precip blossom to my north in N. MD and SE PA...who knows.

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But using the ma sucks nowadays card as an excuse to find every reason to dismiss a low prob event is lame. If you only want to discuss high prob events the tune in once every couple of years and don't bother engaging at all when it's marginal. 

 

This storm had a chance and these types of systems are one of the ways we can get a moderate event. I'm not sure why people felt the need to fight over it. 

 

I think the greater point Wes was making - and I def agree - is when you go THIS long between decent snowfalls, patience wears thin and people get a bit shorter in temper and it is overall less "fun" as compared to the glory days...

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Anytime there is a 5h vort taking these kinds of tracks during the winter months there is a chance. We talked about it a week ago but the ns was persistent on squishing it in the models. But in these cases subtle shifts in strength and placement of the ns can open the doors awful quick at our latitude. I know I'm preaching to the choir with you but every single event like this should be discussed in detail no matter how slim the chance.

What's the other option? Discuss nothing at all and get backdoored with snow while leaving the entire board saying wtf happened? Nah, that goes against the purpose of this board existing in the first place.

Right. As far as I'm concerned this event still had more potential for the DC/Balt area -- at least the lowerlands -- than any other this winter. And plenty of those got talked up.

At best it was probably a coin flip.. I leaned a little too heavy toward snowier maybe as I was about 60/40 yesterday morning. The thread was littered with cautionary tales.. I think NWS was the snowiest idea overall.. tho not sure what DCAlexandria was thinking accum wise.

This place is still about the best to bounce ideas off people and run chances on the lower probability but more interesting scenarios etc. Working in a think tank, I see some similarities to how we "do business" in a place like this compared to a blog/social media/etc where there is communication but it's largely one group telling another group what they think.

In the past I've slapped down weenies for being jackasses when there is little to no chance etc. But, in this case I think it was worth watching even if I don't see a drop of precip. Hopefully those who are trying to learn more about how all diff types of systems might impact us have learned from this one. I think I'll take away at least a lesson or two -- as the great Ji once said: N trends only happen when we don't want them.

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Looking at current surface obs and the precip forecasts by the RAP in the next 10-12 hours, I'd think there's at least a small chance of a pretty big snowfall bust.  Other thoughts?

outside the higher elevations, if you're under the upper level vort, you'll see some decent snow falling imho;whether it sticks/accumulates with current temps needing to fall a long way is another question

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I think the greater point Wes was making - and I def agree - is when you go THIS long between decent snowfalls, patience wears thin and people get a bit shorter in temper and it is overall less "fun" as compared to the glory days...

 

Yea, I can see that. I suppose I'm a bit more relaxed than many so it takes a lot more than lack of snow to get under my skin. If anything, going so  long without is actually making it easier and easier. A good comparison would be a recovering alcoholic getting their 2 year coin. Keeps on getting easier. 

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When i commented on the radar i was noting to the northward movement of the precip currently over Tennessee and WV, not whats happening around town.. to me its looking like a big heave chunk could still make it to us

If the column saturates before the energy pulls east, perhaps we can manage a few yellow garbage can covers. I hope Ian has his Nikon on ISO 1600 so it's not missed.

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