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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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NAM gives DC .31" of total precip. Similar to the new srefs.

 

Here is a total precip map from the 9z srefs:

 

nd0i91.gif

 

...yes, but only .11" of which falls from 21-09Z.  And if we're not sufficiently cold yet by 00Z, guess how much pcpn the new NAM has btwn 00-12Z?

 

0.00.

 

Next system please...

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Ask yourself how much of that is rain versus snow.  The soundings suggest quite a bit of it and my 40 degree temp also argues that most will be wasted until dark. 

 

 

Definitely. The 1st half is rain/slop.

Skew-T soundings support snow for the last half of the storm. Will probably only stick to grassy areas (becasue of surface temps), but snow is snow.

 

P.S. I dont live anywhere near this area. I'm just trying to help out since I see people are pretty down in this sub-forum.

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...yes, but only .11" of which falls from 21-09Z.  And if we're not sufficiently cold yet by 00Z, guess how much pcpn the new NAM has btwn 00-12Z?

 

0.00.

 

Next system please...

 

The models trended a lot warmer over the past 24hrs and only some of that was due to the lighter precip most was due to the lack of cold air initially.  Looks like yesterday's warmer GFS soundings were closer to being right than the NAMs.  

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...yes, but only .11" of which falls from 21-09Z.  And if we're not sufficiently cold yet by 00Z, guess how much pcpn the new NAM has btwn 00-12Z?

 

0.00.

 

Next system please...

 

Yeah. Soundings are iffy, but there should at least be snow falling.

Here is hour 9 off the 12z NAM:

 

130117142303.gif

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Sure, I can buy that.

It may be a 4-6 hour period later this evening into the early overnight, but I think you certainly can get decent snowfall rates during that time..

Yes I think two to four is possible for those va counties south of dc and since haven't seen snow really in two years...thats a lot

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Definitely. The 1st half is rain/slop.

Skew-T soundings support snow for the last half of the storm. Will probably only stick to grassy areas (becasue of surface temps), but snow is snow.

 

P.S. I dont live anywhere near this area. I'm just trying to help out since I see people are pretty down in this sub-forum.

 

Thanks for the efforts, I guess, but helping some in the area find a car-topper ain't gonna improve anyone's mood.

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shocker

 

You played this storm really well. I wish I had gone with higher probabilities for scenario 2 versus one yesterday.  The problem with edging the storm north is unless you get into the true deformation zone and have the upper center work its magic, you end up relaxing the pattern a little and not getting as deep in the cold air to start with. 

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Funny thing about it is that if the small improvement on the 12 Z run is duplicated on the next run, we could be in the .5 area.

Anything that does fall would be a positive based on the fact that this wasn't modeled to come anywhere near this area 48 hours or so ago.

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One small point before we go into tonight. The Richmond crew on here has sat back and watched DC and environs celebrate numerous snows that never did a thing down this way. In fact, as everyone well knows, that's the general rule each season, you guys get multiple events that we just miss out on. So, while I get the dissapointment from some in the DC/Balt area, how about a little bit of perspective here that you're just looking at an exception to the overall norm. This is the stuff we, Richmond and south posters, have to deal with every year. Is what it is.

 

Hey I'm with you.  Enjoy your snow.  I hope you get blasted.

 

But.............in 2010-2011, and 2011-2012 you've had far more real storms than has the DC/Balt area.  You (central VA) had the clipper in early Dec 2010, the Christmas morning storm 2010, some from Boxing Day 2010, and at least one late last year.  All DC has had was Jan 2011.

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Hey I'm with you.  Enjoy your snow.  I hope you get blasted.

 

But.............in 2010-2011, and 2011-2012 you've had far more real storms than has the DC/Balt area.  You (central VA) had the clipper in early Dec 2010, the Christmas morning storm 2010, some from Boxing Day 2010, and at least one late last year.  All DC has had was Jan 2011.

 

True,

 

But what about us Richmonders who moved up to the DC area early last winter, AFTER the 2009-2010 snowmaggedons and nice Jan 2011 event? Missed out on those...and now that I'm up here...missing out on snow to the south where I used to live.  I am definitely NOT the snow magnet! ;)

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