usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM gives DC .31" of total precip. Similar to the new srefs. Here is a total precip map from the 9z srefs: Ask yourself how much of that is rain versus snow. The soundings suggest quite a bit of it and my 40 degree temp also argues that most will be wasted until dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 NAM gives DC .31" of total precip. Similar to the new srefs. Here is a total precip map from the 9z srefs: ...yes, but only .11" of which falls from 21-09Z. And if we're not sufficiently cold yet by 00Z, guess how much pcpn the new NAM has btwn 00-12Z? 0.00. Next system please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ask yourself how much of that is rain versus snow. The soundings suggest quite a bit of it and my 40 degree temp also argues that most will be wasted until dark. Definitely. The 1st half is rain/slop. Skew-T soundings support snow for the last half of the storm. Will probably only stick to grassy areas (becasue of surface temps), but snow is snow. P.S. I dont live anywhere near this area. I'm just trying to help out since I see people are pretty down in this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ...yes, but only .11" of which falls from 21-09Z. And if we're not sufficiently cold yet by 00Z, guess how much pcpn the new NAM has btwn 00-12Z? 0.00. Next system please... The models trended a lot warmer over the past 24hrs and only some of that was due to the lighter precip most was due to the lack of cold air initially. Looks like yesterday's warmer GFS soundings were closer to being right than the NAMs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ...yes, but only .11" of which falls from 21-09Z. And if we're not sufficiently cold yet by 00Z, guess how much pcpn the new NAM has btwn 00-12Z? 0.00. Next system please... maybe for DC but for ezf and places like it...this system please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 ...yes, but only .11" of which falls from 21-09Z. And if we're not sufficiently cold yet by 00Z, guess how much pcpn the new NAM has btwn 00-12Z? 0.00. Next system please... Yeah. Soundings are iffy, but there should at least be snow falling. Here is hour 9 off the 12z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 maybe for DC but for ezf and places like it...this system please. Yeah. EZF sounding at hour 9, is better then DCA. Mostly because of the heavier precip able to cool the last 100mb of the atmosphere: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 maybe for DC but for ezf and places like it...this system please. Sure, I can buy that. It may be a 4-6 hour period later this evening into the early overnight, but I think you certainly can get decent snowfall rates during that time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Guys it's over for DC. Face it. Radar trends look horrible. Move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 if i didn't know any better i would say the WV imagery looks good, but since i don't know any better i'm probably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Sure, I can buy that. It may be a 4-6 hour period later this evening into the early overnight, but I think you certainly can get decent snowfall rates during that time.. Yes I think two to four is possible for those va counties south of dc and since haven't seen snow really in two years...thats a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Definitely. The 1st half is rain/slop. Skew-T soundings support snow for the last half of the storm. Will probably only stick to grassy areas (becasue of surface temps), but snow is snow. P.S. I dont live anywhere near this area. I'm just trying to help out since I see people are pretty down in this sub-forum. Thanks for the efforts, I guess, but helping some in the area find a car-topper ain't gonna improve anyone's mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 shocker You played this storm really well. I wish I had gone with higher probabilities for scenario 2 versus one yesterday. The problem with edging the storm north is unless you get into the true deformation zone and have the upper center work its magic, you end up relaxing the pattern a little and not getting as deep in the cold air to start with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 i guess this is the area to watch...http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=JKL&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Its days like this you need to be thankful the NGM no longer exists, can you imagine how much snow it would have shown in DC? It always was too far north with precip in these sort of situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Congrats NC. Again. They've had, what 2 or 3 legit winter storms in the last two years down there while we continue to get basically shutout? Amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The infamous DC Snow Hole strikes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 well... if we still follow the models any... 12z NAM finally tosses us in DC a bone... but is it too late? Funny thing about it is that if the small improvement on the 12 Z run is duplicated on the next run, we could be in the .5 area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Its going to be ironic if we actually get some precip and it ends up rain due to warm BL temps. Lame winter II strikes again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Funny thing about it is that if the small improvement on the 12 Z run is duplicated on the next run, we could be in the .5 area. Anything that does fall would be a positive based on the fact that this wasn't modeled to come anywhere near this area 48 hours or so ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Congrats people who punted 4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Congrats people who punted 4 days ago. There wasn't anything to punt 4 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I was really hoping you guys were going to get hit with this one. I think you DC guys will still see flakes. It is over for me and WInterWX. It's fun being one of the 4 VA counties without an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The NAM was correct yesterday when it took the precip south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Anything that does fall would be a positive based on the fact that this wasn't modeled to come anywhere near this area 48 hours or so ago. I would not consider rain a positive. I don't think many others on here would either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would not consider rain a positive. I don't think many others on here would either. Especially when heavy snow is falling 60 miles south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 One small point before we go into tonight. The Richmond crew on here has sat back and watched DC and environs celebrate numerous snows that never did a thing down this way. In fact, as everyone well knows, that's the general rule each season, you guys get multiple events that we just miss out on. So, while I get the dissapointment from some in the DC/Balt area, how about a little bit of perspective here that you're just looking at an exception to the overall norm. This is the stuff we, Richmond and south posters, have to deal with every year. Is what it is. Hey I'm with you. Enjoy your snow. I hope you get blasted. But.............in 2010-2011, and 2011-2012 you've had far more real storms than has the DC/Balt area. You (central VA) had the clipper in early Dec 2010, the Christmas morning storm 2010, some from Boxing Day 2010, and at least one late last year. All DC has had was Jan 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Nice banding down in MS/AL. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=GWX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey I'm with you. Enjoy your snow. I hope you get blasted. But.............in 2010-2011, and 2011-2012 you've had far more real storms than has the DC/Balt area. You (central VA) had the clipper in early Dec 2010, the Christmas morning storm 2010, some from Boxing Day 2010, and at least one late last year. All DC has had was Jan 2011. True, But what about us Richmonders who moved up to the DC area early last winter, AFTER the 2009-2010 snowmaggedons and nice Jan 2011 event? Missed out on those...and now that I'm up here...missing out on snow to the south where I used to live. I am definitely NOT the snow magnet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Accums in VA will verify on the low end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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