Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can I ask a question? Since when did we stop looking at the players on the field, and start relying strictly on the models? Do the current features really push us towards punting? I mean that SE ridge and the decent amount of GOM moisture look ok. In a normal situation where the cutoff is not as sharp as with this one, none of us would question a 50 mile shift, switching someone from say 3" to 5". When do we nowcast? Where have you been all day?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can I ask a question? Since when did we stop looking at the players on the field, and start relying strictly on the models? Do the current features really push us towards punting? I mean that SE ridge and the decent amount of GOM moisture look ok. In a normal situation where the cutoff is not as sharp as with this one, none of us would question a 50 mile shift, switching someone from say 3" to 5". When do we nowcast? Nowcasts are usually radar hallucinations until DC is getting hammered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here the Rgem total precip maps I promised: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Where have you been all day?! I've been here all day. Literally. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I can't get out of this city soon enough. I started to get invested. I'm finding a new hobby before the Arctic Blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We keep hearing that the RGEM is superior to the NAM. Do we have any tangible evidence of this? Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm finding a new hobby before the Arctic Blast I'll be back for that show. And the Mega Clipper Now watch, tomorrow AM, the 6z runs will have us in dark blue. And then we'll have worse boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We keep hearing that the RGEM is superior to the NAM. Do we have any tangible evidence of this? Wes? I have noticed that when the RGEM and NAM differ significantly its usually the NAM that is wrong, I know that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I've been here all day. Literally. Why? You need to speak up more! im sick of everyone living by the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We keep hearing that the RGEM is superior to the NAM. Do we have any tangible evidence of this? Wes? It's a superior model in the 12-24 hour range. Total snow maps don't look too great though for DC on the rgem. Maybe 1"-3". Must be picking up on surface temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You need to speak up more! im sick of everyone living by the models! That may be but thank god we have models and not a bunch of nut cases analyzing water vapor loops thinking they can play out every little parcel in their head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That may be but thank god we have models and not a bunch of nut cases analyzing water vapor loops thinking they can play out every little parcel in their head. FWIW I agree with this but I also think the models end results are not the end all be all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 FWIW I agree with this but I also think the models end results are not the end all be all. to a degree but the big positive for snowlover surprises don't seem to happen much anymore. jan 30 2010 is probably one of the bigger ones recently and that still 'trended' into it during the final day at least. the models are really good.. especially when they all start to match up. there is probably still some leeway on the northern edge but think you'd have to reach to find much good news this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DCA gets exactly .25". Soundings. There are surface temp issues though. Thats pretty amazing then for DCA. Take the Metro to Foggy Bottom and its .10. Go to Woodley Park and its .01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm keeping my expectations reasonable. Going with persistence this winter, I'll be content with half an inch on the cartop, slush on the grass and wet roads throughout the event. I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 to a degree but the big positive for snowlover surprises don't seem to happen much anymore. jan 30 2010 is probably one of the bigger ones recently and that still 'trended' into it during the final day at least. the models are really good.. especially when they all start to match up. there is probably still some leeway on the northern edge but think you'd have to reach to find much good news this eve. Thanks for your response. Honestly, I'm not looking for any good news tonight. I'm just looking for that SE Ridge to stand tall and bump this thing north. You bring up the last time the models busted favorably, but if my memory serves me correctly, we've busted last minute many many times in an unfavorable way. Call me a fool, but I can't completely punt something this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks for your response. Honestly, I'm not looking for any good news tonight. I'm just looking for that SE Ridge to stand tall and bump this thing north. You bring up the last time the models busted favorably, but if my memory serves me correctly, we've busted last minute many many times in an unfavorable way. Call me a fool, but I can't completely punt something this close. It's like 50x easier to screw up snow around here than get it right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I am worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's like 50x easier to screw up snow around here than get it right... Fair enough, and I respect you guys out there that do it for a living. And speaking of people that do it for a living......DT released his final call map.....sure does go North with the precip http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=471457219568208&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater What strikes me, is that he's been bashing DC North snow chances all day until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm going back to tracking my job applications. It has way more potential than watching me get fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Fair enough, and I respect you guys out there that do it for a living. And speaking of people that do it for a living......DT released his final call map.....sure does go North with the precip http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=471457219568208&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater What strikes me, is that he's been bashing DC North snow chances all day until now. Ian takes pictures of lightning for a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Fair enough, and I respect you guys out there that do it for a living. And speaking of people that do it for a living......DT released his final call map.....sure does go North with the precip http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=471457219568208&set=a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717&type=1&theater What strikes me, is that he's been bashing DC North snow chances all day until now. His zones actually did jog northwest, in eastern VA anyway. I was in E. Now I'm in F. Joy. Doesn't make much sense, though. Nothing has drastically changed to cause that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 His zones actually did jog northwest, in eastern VA anyway. I was in E. Now I'm in F. Joy. Doesn't make much sense, though. Nothing has drastically changed to cause that. While I typically don't like his forecasts too much, I actually think that map verifies. Call me crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 i kind of like being in Old town...we could get a 1/2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 While I typically don't like his forecasts too much, I actually think that map verifies. Call me crazy. Well out of backyard bias, naturally, I hope it doesn't. He went out of his way to remove just one or two counties from the E zone. Seems a little ridiculous either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 honestly, I was in the process of making that exact post and decided the hell with it that's funny, but it is true sim radar of NAM had almost nothing compared to what's falling....look at hrs. 3 and 6 from the 0Z part of me expects to wake up to good models again. but i've been kinda weenie lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 part of me expects to wake up to good models again. but i've been kinda weenie lately. the boundary on the models was supposed to be south of us, but it's to our west and it's still raining here these radars are great...great sat and wv too http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ EDIT: click on the NEXRAD site link on the left column Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 part of me expects to wake up to good models again. but i've been kinda weenie lately. now that we look screwed,, I am in full weenie mode...I am about to look at the new RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 now that we look screwed,, I am in full weenie mode...I am about to look at the new RAP well, if we're in weenie mode http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/virginia/weather-radar?play=1 and Blacksburg radar is down and returns still look healthy http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=fcx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I wrote earlier that I felt good about it but temps needed to cooperate. We gotta get to 30.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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