Deck Pic Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 getting scraped by this isnt going to do much....we need to be hit pretty flush to get accumulating snow...I will enjoy just seeing flakes however...I wasn't into this until around 9:10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 anyone mention what the GFS ens looked like for this thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 getting scraped by this isnt going to do much....we need to be hit pretty flush to get accumulating snow...I will enjoy just seeing flakes however...I wasn't into this until around 9:10 nothing else on the run so far of any interest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 anyone mention what the GFS ens looked like for this thing? About .2-.25 BWI, .3ish for DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 About .2-.25 BWI, .3ish for DCA. thanks, I'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 thanks, I'll take it Darn right, let the nina trend go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 We're too north for southern sliders...too far south for redeveloping clippers and miller Bs. To close to the mountains for clippers and too west of the ocean for eastern trending nor'easters welcome to the mid-atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 anyone mention what the GFS ens looked like for this thing? On a cheerful note, there is a signal on the GFS ensembles for a NE snowstorm in about a week. Anyway, onto the 6Z model runs....let's see if the northern creep continues. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Latest SREF pushed northwest....let's see what the NAM does. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I think there will be a nice 6-12 inch band of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I dont know why I'm up, but since I am.. The 6z NAM looks similar to the 0z, the vort track is slightly more NW by 15-30 miles and the precip looks to get up to around I-70 but knowing these confluence cut-off's It's too close for comfort if you live say north of US 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I dont know why I'm up, but since I am.. The 6z NAM looks similar to the 0z, the vort track is slightly more NW by 15-30 miles and the precip looks to get up to around I-70 but knowing these confluence cut-off's It's too close for comfort if you live say north of US 50. I feel it'll come north some more, and boy does it look like a deform band would be possible on the NW side, and if say the precip ends up edging near the M/D line, DC and even BWI could be in on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 06z GFS Looks pretty good for SEVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WsWatch-- Bedford County-- most of the CWA west of the BR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Posed in the other thread. 006z GFS snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 One more 25-50 mile trend north would make me feel much better. DCA in good shape now regardless unless south trend starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 03Z Sref has trended fairly substantially north and west with the precip compared to previous runs to where DC and Balt are now in the .25 to .5 zone. Overall it is showing a much juicier system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DCA should be fine being on the northern fringe. I know folks get tired of hearing this but there is usually a megaband on the NW edge of these things and they also usually end up a bit north of modeled, it seems. Wouldn't shock me to see even PHL get some snow, especially with this last-minute north jump occurring on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 WSW Augusta/Nelson/Albermarle from LWX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 DCA should be fine being on the northern fringe. I know folks get tired of hearing this but there is usually a megaband on the NW edge of these things and they also usually end up a bit north of modeled, it seems. Wouldn't shock me to see even PHL get some snow, especially with this last-minute north jump occurring on the models. Yes, and as I recall, the Jan 30 or 31 2010 event was like that, much of which had to do with the fact that the preferred dendritic growth zone was well north of where the max liquid equivalent pcpn was, meaning a tradeoff of better flake size/higher SLRs with lower QPF. Surface temps are more marginally cold this time around though...I think areas that do well will be those that can feed off of higher pcpn rates and (thus) diabatic cooling from evaporation/melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Looking at the 06Z and the progression from previous runs it looks as if the models are trying real hard to slow the surface low down long enough for the upper level cutoff low to catch up to it. If this continues I would not be surprised to see the north and west trend continue with this storm possibly even a fairly substantial shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wakefield going with 2-3" for metro RIC and most of C VA. Surprised they came out with a map already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 OK, I'll say it first....a lot of similarities to 1/25/00 wrt trends and model evolution not saying we're there yet, but some definite similarities heck, 6zs GFS is now getting moisture far enough to the west to scrap ENE just sayin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 OK,m I'll say it first....a lot of similarities to 1/25/00 wrt trends and model evolution not saying we're there yet, but some definite similarities heck, 6zs GFS is now getting moisture far enough to the west to scrap ENE just sayin' I am liking what I am seeing for you all down in the DC and Balt corridor. Think when all is said and done I am leaning for that area being the jackpot. as opposed central Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 Wakefield going with 2-3" for metro RIC and most of C VA. Surprised they came out with a map already. 396151_389765271116720_972859678_n.jpg Nice time to get rid of the skunk this year. 500mb track looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Nice time to get rid of the skunk this year. 500mb track looks great good luck down there and don't forget to throw us some scraps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Pretty much getting out of the useful range for the ensembles but the 06Z GFS shows most of the members still going with a roughly central Va hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 16, 2013 Author Share Posted January 16, 2013 good luck down there and don't forget to throw us some scraps! Thanks hopefully it throws y'all a little loving as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Any chance this will jog NNW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Any chance this will jog NNW? Did you read the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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