weathervswife Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RGEM is north as is High Res NAM. Don't give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would say close to 10mm for DC based on the tough to read B & W maps. Meteocentre in about 45mins will have the total precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm thinking composite refectivity... which is a always a weenies dream. Here's a different more reasonable version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Rgem is a far superior model to the NAM. At least up in this area. Haven't followed it for the south Mid-Atlantic area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would say close to 10mm for DC based on the tough to read B & W maps. Meteocentre in about 45mins will have total precip maps. Thanks for posting that in here. Hopefully a good sign of things to come on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here's a different more reasonable version. Jan_17_hires_nam_rad24.gif Bingo, and this.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/00zNAM4kmPMSLp03.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That SE ridge has pushed the cloud cover off the coast all the way up to NC/ VA border. Would this possibly force the storm more to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Bingo, and this.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/00zNAM4kmPMSLp03.html For the weenies, can you explain why they are showing so much different results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Decent GFS is Decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS looks similar to 12 and 18z through 21 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Decent GFS is Decent... Not for DC. Looks exactly like the 0z NAM. Its over for DC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not for DC. Looks exactly like the 0z NAM. Its over for DC Metro. Uh, no.... DC is 0.25 QPF and 0.5 is down by EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not for DC. Looks exactly like the 0z NAM. Its over for DC Metro. Looks to me like it has trended towards lower amounts over DC by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not for DC. Looks exactly like the 0z NAM. Its over for DC Metro. No it doesn't. GFS gets at least .25" to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks to me like it has trended towards lower amounts over DC by quite a bit. Queue up the Euro is king posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For the weenies, can you explain why they are showing so much different results? Sure thing. It is actually the same model and the same model run, the difference is which parameters are used in the making of the map. My guess is that the link being spread around with the "big hit" is mapping a parameter called composite reflectivity. This means that if you were to add up the different simulated radar reflectivity at all the different levels of the atmosphere, then that is the map you would get. This parameter is useful for identifying things such as cloud thickness and layers of clouds that would not be normally seen in the other main product, which is the one usedtobe (wes) posted. The one he posted, and the one you should use, is called base reflectivity (or 1km reflectivity). That product shows the models interpretation of what would be actually be falling out of the clouds at close to ground level and thus most likely falling to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Uh, no.... DC is 0.25 QPF and 0.5 is down by EZF DC might be .10 looking at my maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Sterling maintains the WSW while laying the groundwork for a downgrade: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC957 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSUREDEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVEINTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOPORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTOSATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.&&.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL TREK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERNSTATES TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATETHURSDAY NIGHT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TOTHE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUSWHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION FOR A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TODEVELOP THURSDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS FROMHIGHLAND COUNTY TO CHARLOTTESVILLE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...A PERIOD OFSNOWFALL RATES OF 2+ INCHES PER HR WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE BAND WILLMOVE...AND WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT FOR THE DC AREA. THERE WILL BE ABIG DROP OFF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE BAND. THE NAM KEEPSIT FARTHEST SOUTH...WITH LITTLE IMPACT FOR THE DC AREA. THE GFSWOULD SUPPORT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FALLING IN THE METRO AREAS WHILETHE EC...UKMET AND ARW APPEAR TO BE COMPROMISE SOLUTIONS. THE 21ZSREF ALSO CAME IN SOMEWHERE IN-BETWEEN. THERE IS CONCERN THATTEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY ONROADWAYS...BUT AN INCH OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE LATEAFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANADVISORY TYPE EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...SO THE WINTER STORM WATCHESWILL BE LEFT IN PLACE THOUGH PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS. WARNINGS WILLREMAIN IN PLACE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE CONTINUE TOMONITOR OUR FCST AS THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That small QPF # for DC means no heavy precip means warm temps will destroy it. It'll be snowing in RIC and not in DC lol..I still think this hits DC though. Climatology and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Queue up the Euro is king posts. Looks like it still has almost .25 but some of that comes early with real light stuff so maybe .20 or so that might try to accumulate. I'm not sure that gets 2 inches. Jason's last map looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I suppose we're looking good in the Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wes haunts my dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks to me like it has trended towards lower amounts over DC by quite a bit. Having a nice chuckle now eh? Haha, im also glad i diddnt waist alot of time on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DC might be .10 looking at my maps. DCA gets exactly .25". Soundings. There are surface temp issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I need to go back to Oakland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 .69" at EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like it still has almost .25 but some of that comes early with real light stuff so maybe .20 or so that might try to accumulate. I'm not sure that gets 2 inches. Jason's last map looks good. yeah im pretty sure now that if you and jason as lead snow forecasters aren't excited nothing good is going to happen. im still secretly hoping to get banded though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can I ask a question? Since when did we stop looking at the players on the field, and start relying strictly on the models? Do the current features really push us towards punting? I mean that SE ridge and the decent amount of GOM moisture look ok. In a normal situation where the cutoff is not as sharp as with this one, none of us would question a 50 mile shift, switching someone from say 3" to 5". When do we nowcast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I suppose we're looking good in the Hampton Roads. Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 yeah im pretty sure now that if you and jason as lead snow forecasters aren't excited nothing good is going to happen. im still secretly hoping to get banded though. I can't get out of this city soon enough. I started to get invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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