Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Dude, hold off. Let's check the GFS first. Unfortunately guidance is tightening it seems.. I'd be surprised if its not drier up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not good. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm still not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I second that lack of worry. I'm still not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 it's nowcast time. i nowcast that the radar looks kind of unimpressive so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm still not worried. 384 GFS could be 20:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is your 21z SREF individual members, weenies have at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 it's nowcast time. i nowcast that the radar looks kind of unimpressive so far. Not supposed to yet. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 the vort is not coming as far north as it was from yesterday 18z thru today 12z <looking for that d@mn towel aaaagain> Time to break out the barometer and water vapor loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Watch when the 4km nest turns that borderline number into zero, and a few good tens of miles on top of that. Yup....last 3 hi-res runs have shown that. Not even close actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It looks on the satellite images that the storm is starting to take shape in Louisianna with a NW fetch of clouds from the GOM feeding into the circulation. In the last couple of frames, the clouds from this complex system just starting to take shape, pushes the cloud bank NW into most of Ohio and Indiana. Just an observation; probably signifying nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Like three sref members are ok here. Warm up the punter. Wes being mildly interested for 10 minutes clearly can't get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here is your 21z SREF individual members, weenies have at it. I'll take #12 super sized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think it's a good sign that temps continue to rise overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpikesnowlover Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 looks like the local TV MET is still calling for 2-5 for RIC local Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think it's a good sign that temps continue to rise overnight More amplification. :-/ Also, WV: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151345184483476 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 More amplification. :-/ Also, WV: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151345184483476 I SEE IT!!!111! Seriously Berg is all over this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 More amplification. :-/ Also, WV: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151345184483476 I'll tell you what, even my weenie eyes see that ridge kicking ass. Is this something the models historically would miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 More amplification. :-/ Also, WV: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151345184483476 I love Justin, but he always goes for it on 4th down! He doesn't even have a punter on the squad!! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I quick-kicked on 1st down when I saw the 18Z NAM. And he would be wise to! Following him and Ian on Twitter--Justin not buying the NAM location of the cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not supposed to yet. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php yea i know it's early, i'm just being cranky. just tired of all these close calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hmm...DC and points south (Arl/Alex/etc) could be in for 2-4+" - in these past two winters, I'd count that as significant. The guy is from New England, and even in this climo, 2-3" isn't significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The guy is from New England, and even in this climo, 2-3" isn't significant. My prediction could be a bust anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You DC folks need to check out the 0z High res NAM radar. It's unbelievable. Out through 20 so far. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/00zNAM4kmreflectivity.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Like three sref members are ok here. Warm up the punter. Wes being mildly interested for 10 minutes clearly can't get the job done. lol, I was more interested last night than this evening. The steady Euro and nam leaving the ranch got me to watching TV instead of the 00Z NAM. Now I'm glad I didn't waste much time. I'm not going to wait for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If Baltimore gets more than a dusting will you leave the weather side forever? I live in reality, so no. BWI points north has never really been in the game for anything meaningful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Don't know if you guys follow the rgem but it has nailed the events to your north this winter. The 1 hour precip maps are out and it's certainly no NAM. DC gets into good precip. Total precip maps aren't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I live in reality, so no. BWI points north has never really been in the game for anything meaningful This response makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You DC folks need to check out the 0z High res NAM radar. It's unbelievable. Out through 20 so far. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/00zNAM4kmreflectivity.html I'm thinking composite refectivity... which is a always a weenies dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Don't know if you guys follow the rgem but it has nailed the events to your north this winter. The 1 hour precip maps are out and it's certainly no NAM. DC gets into good precip. Total precip maps aren't out yet. I dont see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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