ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Uh, no.... DC is 0.25 QPF and 0.5 is down by EZF DC might be .10 looking at my maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Sterling maintains the WSW while laying the groundwork for a downgrade: NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC957 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSUREDEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVEINTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOPORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTOSATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.&&.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL TREK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERNSTATES TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATETHURSDAY NIGHT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TOTHE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUSWHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION FOR A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TODEVELOP THURSDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS FROMHIGHLAND COUNTY TO CHARLOTTESVILLE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...A PERIOD OFSNOWFALL RATES OF 2+ INCHES PER HR WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE BAND WILLMOVE...AND WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT FOR THE DC AREA. THERE WILL BE ABIG DROP OFF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE BAND. THE NAM KEEPSIT FARTHEST SOUTH...WITH LITTLE IMPACT FOR THE DC AREA. THE GFSWOULD SUPPORT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FALLING IN THE METRO AREAS WHILETHE EC...UKMET AND ARW APPEAR TO BE COMPROMISE SOLUTIONS. THE 21ZSREF ALSO CAME IN SOMEWHERE IN-BETWEEN. THERE IS CONCERN THATTEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY ONROADWAYS...BUT AN INCH OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE LATEAFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANADVISORY TYPE EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...SO THE WINTER STORM WATCHESWILL BE LEFT IN PLACE THOUGH PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS. WARNINGS WILLREMAIN IN PLACE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE CONTINUE TOMONITOR OUR FCST AS THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That small QPF # for DC means no heavy precip means warm temps will destroy it. It'll be snowing in RIC and not in DC lol..I still think this hits DC though. Climatology and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Queue up the Euro is king posts. Looks like it still has almost .25 but some of that comes early with real light stuff so maybe .20 or so that might try to accumulate. I'm not sure that gets 2 inches. Jason's last map looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I suppose we're looking good in the Hampton Roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wes haunts my dreams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks to me like it has trended towards lower amounts over DC by quite a bit. Having a nice chuckle now eh? Haha, im also glad i diddnt waist alot of time on this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DC might be .10 looking at my maps. DCA gets exactly .25". Soundings. There are surface temp issues though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I need to go back to Oakland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 .69" at EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks like it still has almost .25 but some of that comes early with real light stuff so maybe .20 or so that might try to accumulate. I'm not sure that gets 2 inches. Jason's last map looks good. yeah im pretty sure now that if you and jason as lead snow forecasters aren't excited nothing good is going to happen. im still secretly hoping to get banded though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can I ask a question? Since when did we stop looking at the players on the field, and start relying strictly on the models? Do the current features really push us towards punting? I mean that SE ridge and the decent amount of GOM moisture look ok. In a normal situation where the cutoff is not as sharp as with this one, none of us would question a 50 mile shift, switching someone from say 3" to 5". When do we nowcast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEVAsNOwSTORM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I suppose we're looking good in the Hampton Roads. Jackpot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 yeah im pretty sure now that if you and jason as lead snow forecasters aren't excited nothing good is going to happen. im still secretly hoping to get banded though. I can't get out of this city soon enough. I started to get invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can I ask a question? Since when did we stop looking at the players on the field, and start relying strictly on the models? Do the current features really push us towards punting? I mean that SE ridge and the decent amount of GOM moisture look ok. In a normal situation where the cutoff is not as sharp as with this one, none of us would question a 50 mile shift, switching someone from say 3" to 5". When do we nowcast? Where have you been all day?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Can I ask a question? Since when did we stop looking at the players on the field, and start relying strictly on the models? Do the current features really push us towards punting? I mean that SE ridge and the decent amount of GOM moisture look ok. In a normal situation where the cutoff is not as sharp as with this one, none of us would question a 50 mile shift, switching someone from say 3" to 5". When do we nowcast? Nowcasts are usually radar hallucinations until DC is getting hammered with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here the Rgem total precip maps I promised: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Where have you been all day?! I've been here all day. Literally. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I can't get out of this city soon enough. I started to get invested. I'm finding a new hobby before the Arctic Blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We keep hearing that the RGEM is superior to the NAM. Do we have any tangible evidence of this? Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm finding a new hobby before the Arctic Blast I'll be back for that show. And the Mega Clipper Now watch, tomorrow AM, the 6z runs will have us in dark blue. And then we'll have worse boundary layer issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We keep hearing that the RGEM is superior to the NAM. Do we have any tangible evidence of this? Wes? I have noticed that when the RGEM and NAM differ significantly its usually the NAM that is wrong, I know that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I've been here all day. Literally. Why? You need to speak up more! im sick of everyone living by the models! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We keep hearing that the RGEM is superior to the NAM. Do we have any tangible evidence of this? Wes? It's a superior model in the 12-24 hour range. Total snow maps don't look too great though for DC on the rgem. Maybe 1"-3". Must be picking up on surface temp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You need to speak up more! im sick of everyone living by the models! That may be but thank god we have models and not a bunch of nut cases analyzing water vapor loops thinking they can play out every little parcel in their head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That may be but thank god we have models and not a bunch of nut cases analyzing water vapor loops thinking they can play out every little parcel in their head. FWIW I agree with this but I also think the models end results are not the end all be all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 FWIW I agree with this but I also think the models end results are not the end all be all. to a degree but the big positive for snowlover surprises don't seem to happen much anymore. jan 30 2010 is probably one of the bigger ones recently and that still 'trended' into it during the final day at least. the models are really good.. especially when they all start to match up. there is probably still some leeway on the northern edge but think you'd have to reach to find much good news this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 DCA gets exactly .25". Soundings. There are surface temp issues though. Thats pretty amazing then for DCA. Take the Metro to Foggy Bottom and its .10. Go to Woodley Park and its .01. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm keeping my expectations reasonable. Going with persistence this winter, I'll be content with half an inch on the cartop, slush on the grass and wet roads throughout the event. I'll take what I can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 to a degree but the big positive for snowlover surprises don't seem to happen much anymore. jan 30 2010 is probably one of the bigger ones recently and that still 'trended' into it during the final day at least. the models are really good.. especially when they all start to match up. there is probably still some leeway on the northern edge but think you'd have to reach to find much good news this eve. Thanks for your response. Honestly, I'm not looking for any good news tonight. I'm just looking for that SE Ridge to stand tall and bump this thing north. You bring up the last time the models busted favorably, but if my memory serves me correctly, we've busted last minute many many times in an unfavorable way. Call me a fool, but I can't completely punt something this close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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