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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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Sterling maintains the WSW while laying the groundwork for a downgrade:

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC957 PM EST WED JAN 16 2013.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OVER THE CAROLINAS TONIGHT. LOW PRESSUREDEVELOPING NEAR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT WILL MOVEINTO THE CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...BRINGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOPORTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY INTOSATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY.&&.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...A STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM WILL TREK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERNSTATES TONIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATETHURSDAY NIGHT. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY TOTHE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUSWHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG VERTICAL MOTION FOR A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TODEVELOP THURSDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS FROMHIGHLAND COUNTY TO CHARLOTTESVILLE. GIVEN THE DYNAMICS...A PERIOD OFSNOWFALL RATES OF 2+ INCHES PER HR WOULD BE POSSIBLE IN THIS BAND.THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW FAR NORTH AND EAST THE BAND WILLMOVE...AND WHAT WILL BE THE IMPACT FOR THE DC AREA. THERE WILL BE ABIG DROP OFF OF SNOW ACCUMULATION NORTH OF THE BAND. THE NAM KEEPSIT FARTHEST SOUTH...WITH LITTLE IMPACT FOR THE DC AREA. THE GFSWOULD SUPPORT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW FALLING IN THE METRO AREAS WHILETHE EC...UKMET AND ARW APPEAR TO BE COMPROMISE SOLUTIONS. THE 21ZSREF ALSO CAME IN SOMEWHERE IN-BETWEEN. THERE IS CONCERN THATTEMPERATURES WILL BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW TO ACCUMULATE RAPIDLY ONROADWAYS...BUT AN INCH OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE LATEAFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANADVISORY TYPE EVENT REMAINS POSSIBLE...SO THE WINTER STORM WATCHESWILL BE LEFT IN PLACE THOUGH PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS. WARNINGS WILLREMAIN IN PLACE WHERE THEY HAVE BEEN ISSUED. PLEASE CONTINUE TOMONITOR OUR FCST AS THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS.
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Looks like it still has almost .25 but some of that comes early with real light stuff so maybe .20 or so that might try to accumulate.  I'm not sure that gets 2 inches.  Jason's last map looks good. 

yeah im pretty sure now that if you and jason as lead snow forecasters aren't excited nothing good is going to happen. im still secretly hoping to get banded though.

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Can I ask a question?  Since when did we stop looking at the players on the field, and start relying strictly on the models?  Do the current features really push us towards punting?  I mean that SE ridge and the decent amount of GOM moisture look ok.  In a normal situation where the cutoff is not as sharp as with this one, none of us would question a 50 mile shift, switching someone from say 3" to 5".  When do we nowcast?

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Can I ask a question?  Since when did we stop looking at the players on the field, and start relying strictly on the models?  Do the current features really push us towards punting?  I mean that SE ridge and the decent amount of GOM moisture look ok.  In a normal situation where the cutoff is not as sharp as with this one, none of us would question a 50 mile shift, switching someone from say 3" to 5".  When do we nowcast?

Where have you been all day?!

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Can I ask a question?  Since when did we stop looking at the players on the field, and start relying strictly on the models?  Do the current features really push us towards punting?  I mean that SE ridge and the decent amount of GOM moisture look ok.  In a normal situation where the cutoff is not as sharp as with this one, none of us would question a 50 mile shift, switching someone from say 3" to 5".  When do we nowcast?

 

 

Nowcasts are usually radar hallucinations until DC is getting hammered with snow.

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We keep hearing that the RGEM is superior to the NAM. Do we have any tangible evidence of this? Wes?

It's a superior model in the 12-24 hour range.

Total snow maps don't look too great though for DC on the rgem. Maybe 1"-3". Must be picking up on surface temp.

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You need to speak up more! im sick of everyone living by the models!

That may be but thank god we have models and not a bunch of nut cases analyzing water vapor loops thinking they can play out every little parcel in their head.

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FWIW I agree with this but I also think the models end results are not the end all be all.

to a degree but the big positive for snowlover surprises don't seem to happen much anymore. jan 30 2010 is probably one of the bigger ones recently and that still 'trended' into it during the final day at least. the models are really good.. especially when they all start to match up. there is probably still some leeway on the northern edge but think you'd have to reach to find much good news this eve.

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to a degree but the big positive for snowlover surprises don't seem to happen much anymore. jan 30 2010 is probably one of the bigger ones recently and that still 'trended' into it during the final day at least. the models are really good.. especially when they all start to match up. there is probably still some leeway on the northern edge but think you'd have to reach to find much good news this eve.

 

Thanks for your response.  Honestly, I'm not looking for any good news tonight.  I'm just looking for that SE Ridge to stand tall and bump this thing north.  You bring up the last time the models busted favorably, but if my memory serves me correctly, we've busted last minute many many times in an unfavorable way.  Call me a fool, but I can't completely punt something this close.

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