North Balti Zen Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I assume no one will take the above seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis. Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why? I can't find that model anywhere. The RPM model is run by a private company called WSI (Weather Services International), because it's private only those networks who subscribe to their service can view it. Weather Underground used to have it on their wundermap, but I can't find it anymore. I think Richmond is safe for some snow though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hoping to make a "schools closed" decision for Albemarle County (CHO) tonight. This is a "forecast call" and I don't see any possiblilty of safely running 150 school buses for 3 hours during the afternoon. Josh, flash freeze is a real possibility. When it hits, it will hit hard. Remember December 19, 2009 with the extremely heavy snow at the outset? I'd play it safe, otherwise the parents will go apesh*t like they did for the hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Josh, flash freeze is a real possibility. When it hits, it will hit hard. Remember December 19, 2009 with the extremely heavy snow at the outset? I'd play it safe, otherwise the parents will go apesh*t like they did for the hurricane. Don't know about Charlottesville, but Dec 19 was much colder before and during that storm than this one will be in my area. I think the snow started here with a temp of about 26 degrees, IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 True but I can also remember cases when the the gradient was really tight and they got 8 inches in Prince Frederick which is in the middle of my county and I got zilch living in the northern end of the county and I was supposed to get several inches. Tight gradients can screw you lots of ways. You can get under the deformation zone and a band that goes stationary and not very far way someone gets nothing. That's the problem. The fact that the higher resolution models seem to be holding the precip farther south is a concern at least to me. Of course! There is no doubt there will be a sharp cutoff as the ageo/secondary cuts off lift. But I was just saying if you get into the band/deform, these situations can easily bust with higher accumulations. This could end up being a warmer/weaker version of 1/30/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 It's pretty classic with these srn vorts and a strong confluence zone. The most classic setup for these bands. Coastalwx in the house. **** done got real yall. 0z suite will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeliscold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks everyone. NBC12 is the one that is stating the RPM model is saying no snow. It is mentioned on one of their mets facebook pages. Granted they did not change their forecast but since I can't find the model I was interested where it was coming from and how accurate it was. Glad to be here and hope to learn from you all. I think 4" is a good number also, but most of that will be on grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Josh, flash freeze is a real possibility. When it hits, it will hit hard. Remember December 19, 2009 with the extremely heavy snow at the outset? I'd play it safe, otherwise the parents will go apesh*t like they did for the hurricane. My recommendation is on the table....now we need for others to "get to yes." I was royally POd the last time "we" decided to go to school under an active Winter Storm Warning (2011). It was a hair-raising operation when we finally called it a day (early dismissal) after the changeover to snow. High school students are scheduled for exams tomorrow - think they will be able to concentrate with a snowstorm bearing down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Wunderground had RPM for a while but it appears they don't anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks everyone. NBC12 is the one that is stating the RPM model is saying no snow. It is mentioned on one of their mets facebook pages. Granted they did not change their forecast but since I can't find the model I was interested where it was coming from and how accurate it was. Glad to be here and hope to learn from you all. I think 4" is a good number also, but most of that will be on grassy areas.RPM and NAM share similar physics, if I recall correctly. Thus, similar 18z outcomes for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Baltimore won't be getting much, most likely a dusting, if that. You'd have to go further south, and well south of DC for anything significant. Hmm...DC and points south (Arl/Alex/etc) could be in for 2-4+" - in these past two winters, I'd count that as significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hmm...DC and points south (Arl/Alex/etc) could be in for 2-4+" - in these past two winters, I'd count that as significant. Agreed 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 There's 750 Theta E on the 18z GFS. Verbatim looks good for DC and Amazing for Fredericksburg to La Plata should it be snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Baltimore won't be getting much, most likely a dusting, if that. You'd have to go further south, and well south of DC for anything significant. If Baltimore gets more than a dusting will you leave the weather side forever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Magically, the SREF just came out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SREFs shifted south a lil... 0.5 line goes to EZF or so... 0.25 reaches just north of DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Magically, the SREF just came out... Drier overall in NC too-- maybe the ULL opens up/ less strong on a few members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SREFs shifted south a lil... 0.5 line goes to EZF or so... 0.25 reaches just north of DCA What happened to the 2-2.25 it was showing for western nc earlier? This map doesn't show over an inch for anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Coastalwx in the house. **** done got real yall. 0z suite will be telling. Well this may be more for VA. :goesandhidesincorner: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Maybe it wasn't real? Being that they said it was delayed until 10pm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What happened to the 2-2.25 it was showing for western nc earlier? This map doesn't show over an inch for anyone? that was 24 hr this is 12 tho not sure if thats the diff. the timestamp also says the 17th.. toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We should just toss the SREFs due to "technical issues." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Baltimore won't be getting much, most likely a dusting, if that. You'd have to go further south, and well south of DC for anything significant. Thanks--I saw the watch and wasn't sure what to expect. Hope you all cash in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What happened to the 2-2.25 it was showing for western nc earlier? This map doesn't show over an inch for anyone? His map was a 12hr one.. I was using a 24 hr one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 We should just toss the SREFs due to "technical issues." at least till the nam whiffs again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That SREF output is actually pretty encouraging after what the 18Z NAM showed. Recall, the new SREF is loaded with WRF members; the fact that the 21Z run did not follow suit with the 18Z NAM in going noticably drier for the DC area is encouraging. Still want to see more QPF farther north with the 00Z higher res runs though...at least one or two of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 What happened to the 2-2.25 it was showing for western nc earlier? This map doesn't show over an inch for anyone? This is the 24 totals and the time backed up a bit, it's backed down a tad but still a 2.5" bullseye over far W-NC http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/sref/21/sref_namer_036_precip_p24.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 SREF should compress the precip shield as you get closer to an event. The spread increases with time. It didn't come north though, which is the main thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mpikesnowlover Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 yea that seems to be flying around face book right now lol. welcome aboard hey neighbor ive been on here since nov just havnt posted a whole lot. Im pretty close to you, should be interesting to see who gets more out of this one. I might be just a little east n east of ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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