Yeoman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 More amplification. :-/ Also, WV: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151345184483476 I SEE IT!!!111! Seriously Berg is all over this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 More amplification. :-/ Also, WV: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151345184483476 I'll tell you what, even my weenie eyes see that ridge kicking ass. Is this something the models historically would miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 More amplification. :-/ Also, WV: https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10151345184483476 I love Justin, but he always goes for it on 4th down! He doesn't even have a punter on the squad!! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I quick-kicked on 1st down when I saw the 18Z NAM. And he would be wise to! Following him and Ian on Twitter--Justin not buying the NAM location of the cut off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not supposed to yet. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php yea i know it's early, i'm just being cranky. just tired of all these close calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hmm...DC and points south (Arl/Alex/etc) could be in for 2-4+" - in these past two winters, I'd count that as significant. The guy is from New England, and even in this climo, 2-3" isn't significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The guy is from New England, and even in this climo, 2-3" isn't significant. My prediction could be a bust anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You DC folks need to check out the 0z High res NAM radar. It's unbelievable. Out through 20 so far. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/00zNAM4kmreflectivity.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Like three sref members are ok here. Warm up the punter. Wes being mildly interested for 10 minutes clearly can't get the job done. lol, I was more interested last night than this evening. The steady Euro and nam leaving the ranch got me to watching TV instead of the 00Z NAM. Now I'm glad I didn't waste much time. I'm not going to wait for the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If Baltimore gets more than a dusting will you leave the weather side forever? I live in reality, so no. BWI points north has never really been in the game for anything meaningful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Don't know if you guys follow the rgem but it has nailed the events to your north this winter. The 1 hour precip maps are out and it's certainly no NAM. DC gets into good precip. Total precip maps aren't out yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I live in reality, so no. BWI points north has never really been in the game for anything meaningful This response makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 You DC folks need to check out the 0z High res NAM radar. It's unbelievable. Out through 20 so far. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/00zNAM4kmreflectivity.html I'm thinking composite refectivity... which is a always a weenies dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Don't know if you guys follow the rgem but it has nailed the events to your north this winter. The 1 hour precip maps are out and it's certainly no NAM. DC gets into good precip. Total precip maps aren't out yet. I dont see that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 RGEM is north as is High Res NAM. Don't give up yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would say close to 10mm for DC based on the tough to read B & W maps. Meteocentre in about 45mins will have the total precip maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I'm thinking composite refectivity... which is a always a weenies dream. Here's a different more reasonable version. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Rgem is a far superior model to the NAM. At least up in this area. Haven't followed it for the south Mid-Atlantic area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I would say close to 10mm for DC based on the tough to read B & W maps. Meteocentre in about 45mins will have total precip maps. Thanks for posting that in here. Hopefully a good sign of things to come on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Here's a different more reasonable version. Jan_17_hires_nam_rad24.gif Bingo, and this.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/00zNAM4kmPMSLp03.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 That SE ridge has pushed the cloud cover off the coast all the way up to NC/ VA border. Would this possibly force the storm more to the north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Bingo, and this.. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/00zNAM4kmPMSLp03.html For the weenies, can you explain why they are showing so much different results? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Decent GFS is Decent... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 GFS looks similar to 12 and 18z through 21 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Decent GFS is Decent... Not for DC. Looks exactly like the 0z NAM. Its over for DC Metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not for DC. Looks exactly like the 0z NAM. Its over for DC Metro. Uh, no.... DC is 0.25 QPF and 0.5 is down by EZF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not for DC. Looks exactly like the 0z NAM. Its over for DC Metro. Looks to me like it has trended towards lower amounts over DC by quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Not for DC. Looks exactly like the 0z NAM. Its over for DC Metro. No it doesn't. GFS gets at least .25" to DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Looks to me like it has trended towards lower amounts over DC by quite a bit. Queue up the Euro is king posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 For the weenies, can you explain why they are showing so much different results? Sure thing. It is actually the same model and the same model run, the difference is which parameters are used in the making of the map. My guess is that the link being spread around with the "big hit" is mapping a parameter called composite reflectivity. This means that if you were to add up the different simulated radar reflectivity at all the different levels of the atmosphere, then that is the map you would get. This parameter is useful for identifying things such as cloud thickness and layers of clouds that would not be normally seen in the other main product, which is the one usedtobe (wes) posted. The one he posted, and the one you should use, is called base reflectivity (or 1km reflectivity). That product shows the models interpretation of what would be actually be falling out of the clouds at close to ground level and thus most likely falling to the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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