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Jan 17-18th disco thread--1st big threat of the year


Midlo Snow Maker

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Like three sref members are ok here. Warm up the punter. Wes being mildly interested for 10 minutes clearly can't get the job done.

 

 

lol,  I was more interested last night than this evening.  The steady Euro and nam leaving the ranch got me to watching TV instead of the 00Z NAM.  Now I'm glad I didn't waste much time. I'm not going to wait for the GFS. 

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For the weenies, can you explain why they are showing so much different results?

 

Sure thing. It is actually the same model and the same model run, the difference is which parameters are used in the making of the map. My guess is that the link being spread around with the "big hit" is mapping a parameter called composite reflectivity. This means that if you were to add up the different simulated radar reflectivity at all the different levels of the atmosphere, then that is the map you would get. This parameter is useful for identifying things such as cloud thickness and layers of clouds that would not be normally seen in the other main product, which is the one usedtobe (wes) posted. The one he posted, and the one you should use, is called base reflectivity (or 1km reflectivity). That product shows the models interpretation of what would be actually be falling out of the clouds at close to ground level and thus most likely falling to the ground.

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