clueless Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I am at 40 now. Temp has risen. Is no one concerned about sfc temps once this gets started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Discussion and Forecast Decided not to wait until 11pm. I like what I am seeing on the radar as far as KY/TN and the precip mass along GA/AL border. There is good northward motion even though the overall move is ene-ne. At this point I think the movement would have to switch to due east in order for DC to miss out and that is not likely. If anything, we could have more of a temperature issue than a missing out out issue. Some of the posters have discussed deformation issues and I will leave that out as it's too difficult to predict if, where and when. This looks like a 2-4" snowmaker for DC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Ha ha HM, we were thinking about the same event! I think it was Jan 30, a Saturday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 21z SREF is going to be an hour late per the NCEP status page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 21z SREF is going to be an hour late per the NCEP status page.How could they do that to us??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Ha ha HM, we were thinking about the same event! I think it was Jan 30, a Saturday.. Thanks for posting tbe link!Looks like the Jan 30-31 2010 event did make it as a CIPS analog to this event....#5: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 How could they do that to us??? A better question would be why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 not to back pat especially since it's probably not the same overall, but mentioned jan 30 when this first showed up before we went back to ignoring it http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38526-january-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread/?p=1990259 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Thanks for posting tbe link! Looks like the Jan 30-31 2010 event did make it as a CIPS analog to this event....#5: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/stats.php?reg=EC&model=NAM212&fhr=F036&flg= The current radar would show otherwise imo http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The current radar would show otherwise imo http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full.php Very true. Not nearly as robust, at least not up to this point.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 trof is starting to go neutral on this water vapor see how the brighter cloud tops are starting to build back west from western TN into N Arkansas http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130117&endTime=-1&duration=6 EDIT: nice fetch of moisture too off the PAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 I think I will be sitting this one out. Doesn't bother me in the least. BTW, had a nice coating of ice on the trees, bushes, deck, vehicle this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Agreed. This is a classic deformation zone with positive frontogenesis. I haven't seen bufkits in the area but if dendritic growth is there where the RH/lift is maximized (looks like it), there will be a solid area of 1-2"/hr type bands sitting over a spot for quite enough time to bust high. True but I can also remember cases when the the gradient was really tight and they got 8 inches in Prince Frederick which is in the middle of my county and I got zilch living in the northern end of the county and I was supposed to get several inches. Tight gradients can screw you lots of ways. You can get under the deformation zone and a band that goes stationary and not very far way someone gets nothing. That's the problem. The fact that the higher resolution models seem to be holding the precip farther south is a concern at least to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 True but I can also remember cases when the the gradient was really tight and they got 8 inches in Prince Frederick which is in the middle of my county and I got zilch living in the northern end of the county and I was supposed to get several inches. Tight gradients can screw you lots of ways. You can get under the deformation zone and a band that goes stationary and not very far way someone gets nothing. That's the problem. The fact that the higher resolution models seem to be holding the precip farther south is a concern at least to me. Oh yeah...the risks are heightened for sure. You obviously know this, but the very strong right bands usually have a subsidence exhaust zone just W or NW of the band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 not to back pat especially since it's probably not the same overall, but mentioned jan 30 when this first showed up before we went back to ignoring it http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38526-january-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread/?p=1990259 Well, I think it's a "feel good" analog when folks up here in the DC area feel a shaft coming. I will be anxious to see what the 00Z runs show for 21Z-03Z tomorrow evening. It may end up being a small window of opportunity up here, but nevertheless one where 1-3" in the DC metro is still within a 50th percentile (where 10th/20th percentile is nothing and 80-90th is closer to 6+"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 The 21z SREF is going to be an hour late per the NCEP status page. Basically makes it useless then since the NAM would be out before it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Well, I think it's a "feel good" analog when folks up here in the DC area feel a shaft coming. I will be anxious to see what the 00Z runs show for 21Z-03Z tomorrow evening. It may end up being a small window of opportunity up here, but nevertheless one where 1-3" in the DC metro is still within a 50th percentile (where 10th/20th percentile is nothing and 80-90th is closer to 6+"). Yeah that was a pretty perfect storm of this type given the cold etc. this 500 track isn't that different tho. I guess even if we get the shaft it's good to see the southern stream perform a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Basically makes it useless then since the NAM would be out before it. How so? Two different models. While it is a crap shoot for precip in DC, still worthy to see how each perorms on ths event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joeliscold Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis. Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why? I can't find that model anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Greetings from the New England thread; first time outside the NE forum--I hope you get hit hard by the storm. Having just enjoyed 5" today, I'm already envious of you folks getting some tomorrow. I'm hoping you can give me your best synopsis of the BWI area with respect to start/end time and how much snow. I'm driving down to Baltimore tomorrow night. Thanks for providing your take on it--and enjoy it! mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Attention passengers of SREF flight 21z, the model has experienced technical difficulties and will be delayed 1 to 2 hrs. Your new departure time is around 3z or 10 PM local time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis. Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why? I can't find that model anywhere. The RPM model is always used by news stations and I'd take what that model says with a grain (perhaps a brick) of salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis. Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why? I can't find that model anywhere. Don't take my word on it, but assuming we do well up north, I think that Richmond is in a pretty good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hokierulz98 Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis. Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why? I can't find that model anywhere. Curious which local met is saying no snow for RIC? I need to remember to never watch that station for weather. We should get at least 4" maybe 6"+ here in Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hoping to make a "schools closed" decision for Albemarle County (CHO) tonight. This is a "forecast call" and I don't see any possiblilty of safely running 150 school buses for 3 hours during the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 17, 2013 Author Share Posted January 17, 2013 Hey guys, brand new here and reading through the pages this forum sounds like fun and you all have really good info and analysis. Question and smack me if it has been answered but local mets in richmond discussing their RPM model and saying it is showing no snow for RIC and very little south of here. Anyone know why? I can't find that model anywhere. yea that seems to be flying around face book right now lol. welcome aboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If the SREF is going to be delayed till 10... wouldnt that delay the NAM as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 Greetings from the New England thread; first time outside the NE forum--I hope you get hit hard by the storm. Having just enjoyed 5" today, I'm already envious of you folks getting some tomorrow. I'm hoping you can give me your best synopsis of the BWI area with respect to start/end time and how much snow. I'm driving down to Baltimore tomorrow night. Thanks for providing your take on it--and enjoy it! mike Baltimore won't be getting much, most likely a dusting, if that. You'd have to go further south, and well south of DC for anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 not to back pat especially since it's probably not the same overall, but mentioned jan 30 when this first showed up before we went back to ignoring it http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38526-january-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread/?p=1990259 Not to back pat but ..... http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38526-january-2013-mid-long-range-disco-thread/page-15? To be honest, the week has worked out differently than they were modeling, but they did have the possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted January 17, 2013 Share Posted January 17, 2013 If the SREF is going to be delayed till 10... wouldnt that delay the NAM as well? If it's worth the wait, let them take all the time they need to incorporate more data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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